Fiserv Forum · at Bucks
LineNo line yet
Total—
 UTAH | This season | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 1-5 |
| 1-5 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 5-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects MIL 118–117 · win probability MIL 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 234.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: MIL has more of the edges
UTAH 1, MIL 3 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
UTAH has played the 4th-hardest schedule, MIL the 23rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
UTAHSmallUTAH offense vs MIL defense
Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
MILSmallThree-pointers
UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%; MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 41.7% and 45.9% of their shots
MILSmallHome court
MIL at home. This season: MIL 1-3 at home, UTAH 0-1 away
Context
Tempo
About 105 possessions: UTAH plays 104.0 a game (12th fastest), MIL 106.2 (4th). Faster games mean more points
MILSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTAH 25.7%, MIL 29.7%. Defensive: UTAH 77.1%, MIL 74.2%
Even
Recent form
Last 5: UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2; MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTAH 17.0%, MIL 15.8%. Forced: UTAH 13.3%, MIL 12.2%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9; MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTAH 31.6, MIL 23.9. Allowed: UTAH 33.8, MIL 29.7
Even
MIL offense vs UTAH defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTAH 100%, MIL 100%. Transfers in: UTAH 0, MIL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelMIL -0.6
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model234.7
Model edge—
Projected score
UTAH 117.1 · MIL 117.7
Win probability
MIL 52%
1st half
Spread
MIL -0.2
Total
117.3
Projected score
UTAH 58.6 · MIL 58.8
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTAHlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% |
| MILlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% | 5-1 83% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
UTAH 4–6 MILMIL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · UTAH 4-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2025-26 | MIL 96 @ UTAH 128 | UTAH +5.5 | UTAH W |
| Mar 7, 2025-26 | UTAH 99 @ MIL 113 | MIL -9.5 | MIL W |
| Jan 27, 2024-25 | MIL 125 @ UTAH 110 | UTAH +8.5 | MIL W |
| Nov 7, 2024-25 | UTAH 100 @ MIL 123 | MIL -9.5 | MIL W |
| Feb 4, 2023-24 | MIL 108 @ UTAH 123 | UTAH -2.5 | UTAH W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Jazz
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
1-5
17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
MEM
MEML 103-123
−18.5
23
vs
NO
NOW 120-119
−0.5
25
vs
LAL
LALL 123-132
−2.5
26
vsMEM
MEML 105-110
−3.5
28
vs
SA
SAL 111-117
+7.5
31
vs
POR
PORL 90-112
−15.5
covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@MEM
MEML 103-123
−14.5
23
vsNO
NOW 120-119
+0.5
25
vsLAL
LALL 123-132
+17.5
26
vsMEM
MEML 105-110
−22.5
28
vsSA
SAL 111-117
−4.5
31
vsPOR
PORL 90-112
−30.5
over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bucks
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@
PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
28
vs
HOU
HOUL 100-132
−23.5
31
vs
CLE
CLEL 111-136
−16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 100-132
+5.5
31
vsCLE
CLEL 111-136
+12.5
over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Bucks has the better starters
Position by position: Jazz 1, Bucks 2, even 2
JazzBetterBucks
G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast
Score 8
=Even
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 6
G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 11
=Even
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast
Score 2
G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 17
→MILSmall
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast
Score 51
F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast
Score 94
←UTAHBig
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 31
C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast
Score 36
→MILSmall
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 56
JazzBetterBucks
UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2
←UTAHSmall
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0
=Even
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players
=Even
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players
←UTAHBig
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
Bench+2.1 · 5 players
←UTAHSmall
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUTAH betterMIL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
JazzGuards
K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min
Forwards
L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min
Centers
J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min
Out
J. JacksonOut
BucksGuards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
UTAH108.7 #24MIL113.0 #17Points per possession
UTAH1.05 #25MIL1.07 #20Pace (possessions)
UTAH104.0 #12MIL106.2 #4Shooting
Effective FG%
UTAH51.0 #24MIL52.0 #213-point %
UTAH32.6 #23MIL33.9 #213-point attempt rate
UTAH41.7 #21MIL45.9 #8Free throw rate
UTAH31.6 #10MIL23.9 #25Possessions
Turnover rate
UTAH17.0 #25MIL15.8 #18Offensive rebound rate
UTAH25.7 #22MIL29.7 #8Assists per game
UTAH26.2 #19MIL26.0 #20Defense
Points allowed
UTAH118.8 #25MIL126.2 #28Points allowed per possession
UTAH1.14 #25MIL1.18 #28Opponent effective FG%
UTAH53.9 #18MIL55.4 #24Opponent 3-point %
UTAH37.6 #25MIL34.9 #14Turnovers forced
UTAH13.3 #28MIL12.2 #30Defensive rebound rate
UTAH77.1 #4MIL74.2 #10Steals per game
UTAH6.2 #29MIL5.7 #30Blocks per game
UTAH6.5 #5MIL4.0 #27| UTAH | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 108.7 #24 | Points per game | 113.0 #17 |
| 1.05 #25 | Points per possession | 1.07 #20 |
| 104.0 #12 | Pace (possessions) | 106.2 #4 |
| Shooting | ||
| 51.0 #24 | Effective FG% | 52.0 #21 |
| 32.6 #23 | 3-point % | 33.9 #21 |
| 41.7 #21 | 3-point attempt rate | 45.9 #8 |
| 31.6 #10 | Free throw rate | 23.9 #25 |
| Possessions | ||
| 17.0 #25 | Turnover rate | 15.8 #18 |
| 25.7 #22 | Offensive rebound rate | 29.7 #8 |
| 26.2 #19 | Assists per game | 26.0 #20 |
| Defense | ||
| 118.8 #25 | Points allowed | 126.2 #28 |
| 1.14 #25 | Points allowed per possession | 1.18 #28 |
| 53.9 #18 | Opponent effective FG% | 55.4 #24 |
| 37.6 #25 | Opponent 3-point % | 34.9 #14 |
| 13.3 #28 | Turnovers forced | 12.2 #30 |
| 77.1 #4 | Defensive rebound rate | 74.2 #10 |
| 6.2 #29 | Steals per game | 5.7 #30 |
| 6.5 #5 | Blocks per game | 4.0 #27 |
Jazz
1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
- Lvs Spurs111–117
- Lvs Grizzlies105–110
- Lvs Lakers123–132
- Wvs Pelicans120–119
A week or more of rest.
Bucks
1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Cavaliers111–136
- Lvs Rockets100–132
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
A week or more of rest.