Smoothie King Center · at Pelicans
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MIL | This season | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 4-2 |
| 5-1 | O/U | 4-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects NO 122–114 · win probability NO 73%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 236.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: NO has more of the edges
MIL 1, NO 6 · 2026-27 so far
NOBigNO offense vs MIL defense
Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings
NOBigFree throws
Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, NO 35.3. Allowed: MIL 29.7, NO 30.6
NOSmallShooting
Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; NO 55.1 and allows 54.2
MILSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, NO 24.3%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, NO 76.4%
NOSmallRecent form
Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8
NOSmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, NO 17.4%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, NO 16.3%
Context
Schedule so far
MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, NO the 28th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NOSmallHome court
NO at home. This season: NO 2-2 at home, MIL 0-2 away
Even
Three-pointers
MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 45.9% and 32.8% of their shots
Even
MIL offense vs NO defense
Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 107 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), NO 108.0 (2nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, NO 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, NO 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelNO -8.4
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model236.5
Model edge—
Projected score
MIL 114 · NO 122.4
Win probability
NO 73%
1st half
Spread
NO -4.6
Total
118.2
Projected score
MIL 56.8 · NO 61.4
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MILlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% | 5-1 83% |
| NOlast 6 | 2-4 33% | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
MIL 8–2 NOMIL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIL has won the last 4 meetings · MIL 7-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2025-26 | MIL 139 @ NO 118 | NO -4.5 | MIL W |
| Feb 4, 2025-26 | NO 137 @ MIL 141 | MIL +4.5 | MIL W |
| Apr 10, 2024-25 | NO 111 @ MIL 136 | MIL -16.5 | MIL W |
| Apr 6, 2024-25 | MIL 111 @ NO 107 | NO +6.5 | NO W |
| Mar 28, 2023-24 | MIL 100 @ NO 107 | NO +2.5 | NO W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bucks
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
WSH
WSHL 116-128
−7.5
23
vs
CHI
CHIL 125-132
−8.5
24
@
PHI
PHIL 116-127
+1.5
26
vs
IND
INDW 110-102
+11.5
28
vs
HOU
HOUL 100-132
−23.5
31
vs
CLE
CLEL 111-136
−16.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@WSH
WSHL 116-128
+4.5
23
vsCHI
CHIL 125-132
+15.5
24
@PHI
PHIL 116-127
+8.5
26
vsIND
INDW 110-102
−27.5
28
vsHOU
HOUL 100-132
+5.5
31
vsCLE
CLEL 111-136
+12.5
over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pelicans
6 games played
Straight up
2-4
33% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-2
67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
−0.5
23
@
UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@
DEN
DENL 135-141
+5.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−8.5
29
vs
SAC
SACW 132-120
+5.5
31
vs
ATL
ATLW 121-99
+27.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsIND
INDL 120-123
+4.5
23
@UTAH
UTAHL 119-120
+0.5
24
@DEN
DENL 135-141
+36.5
28
vsDEN
DENL 91-104
−46.5
29
vsSAC
SACW 132-120
+17.5
31
vsATL
ATLW 121-99
−19.5
over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Pelicans has the better starters
Position by position: Bucks 0, Pelicans 4, even 1
BucksBetterPelicans
G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast
Score 6
→NOBig
G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast
Score 45
G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast
Score 2
→NOSmall
G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast
Score 19
F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast
Score 51
→NOSmall
F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 81
F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast
Score 31
→NOBig
F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 75
C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 56
=Even
C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast
Score 52
BucksBetterPelicans
MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9
=Even
NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7
MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0
→NOBig
NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1
Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players
→NOBig
Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players
→NOBig
Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 5 players
←MILBig
Bench-16.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIL betterNO betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
BucksGuards
T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min
Forwards
J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min
Centers
M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min
PelicansGuards
D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min
Forwards
Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min
Centers
D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min
Out
J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MIL113.0 #17NO119.7 #7Points per possession
MIL1.07 #20NO1.10 #15Pace (possessions)
MIL106.2 #4NO108.0 #2Shooting
Effective FG%
MIL52.0 #21NO55.1 #93-point %
MIL33.9 #21NO31.2 #253-point attempt rate
MIL45.9 #8NO32.8 #30Free throw rate
MIL23.9 #25NO35.3 #4Possessions
Turnover rate
MIL15.8 #18NO17.4 #26Offensive rebound rate
MIL29.7 #8NO24.3 #25Assists per game
MIL26.0 #20NO25.5 #21Defense
Points allowed
MIL126.2 #28NO117.8 #24Points allowed per possession
MIL1.18 #28NO1.09 #16Opponent effective FG%
MIL55.4 #24NO54.2 #21Opponent 3-point %
MIL34.9 #14NO30.5 #5Turnovers forced
MIL12.2 #30NO16.3 #10Defensive rebound rate
MIL74.2 #10NO76.4 #6Steals per game
MIL5.7 #30NO13.7 #1Blocks per game
MIL4.0 #27NO4.8 #16| MIL | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 113.0 #17 | Points per game | 119.7 #7 |
| 1.07 #20 | Points per possession | 1.10 #15 |
| 106.2 #4 | Pace (possessions) | 108.0 #2 |
| Shooting | ||
| 52.0 #21 | Effective FG% | 55.1 #9 |
| 33.9 #21 | 3-point % | 31.2 #25 |
| 45.9 #8 | 3-point attempt rate | 32.8 #30 |
| 23.9 #25 | Free throw rate | 35.3 #4 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.8 #18 | Turnover rate | 17.4 #26 |
| 29.7 #8 | Offensive rebound rate | 24.3 #25 |
| 26.0 #20 | Assists per game | 25.5 #21 |
| Defense | ||
| 126.2 #28 | Points allowed | 117.8 #24 |
| 1.18 #28 | Points allowed per possession | 1.09 #16 |
| 55.4 #24 | Opponent effective FG% | 54.2 #21 |
| 34.9 #14 | Opponent 3-point % | 30.5 #5 |
| 12.2 #30 | Turnovers forced | 16.3 #10 |
| 74.2 #10 | Defensive rebound rate | 76.4 #6 |
| 5.7 #30 | Steals per game | 13.7 #1 |
| 4.0 #27 | Blocks per game | 4.8 #16 |
Bucks
1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Lvs Cavaliers111–136
- Lvs Rockets100–132
- Wvs Pacers110–102
- L@ 76ers116–127
- Lvs Bulls125–132
A week or more of rest.
Pelicans
2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Hawks121–99
- Wvs Kings132–120
- Lvs Nuggets91–104
- L@ Nuggets135–141
- L@ Jazz119–120
A week or more of rest.