Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Mar 5, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Suns
MIN	This season	PHX
4-3	Record	1-3
6-1	ATS	0-4
4-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 119–110 · win probability MIN 73%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 7, PHX 1 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs PHX defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 42.8% and 45.1% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, PHX 65.1%

MINBig

Recent form

Last 4: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

MINBig

PHX offense vs MIN defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

MINSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, PHX 22.8. Allowed: MIN 28.9, PHX 31.1

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, PHX 17.1%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: MIN away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 7	@ DEN	W110–98
Mar 8	vs NO	W132–126WO
Mar 10	vs ATL	W138–116WO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 8	@ MIA	L102–111LU
Mar 9	@ ORL	L111–115LO
Mar 11	@ CHI	W120–110LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 21 since 2021-22

MIN 10–11 PHXPHX leads · 21 games since 2021-22 · MIN 9-12 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 17, 2025-26	PHX 104 @ MIN 116	MIN -3.5	MIN W
Dec 8, 2025-26	PHX 108 @ MIN 105	MIN -8.5	PHX W
Nov 21, 2025-26	MIN 113 @ PHX 114	PHX +4.5	PHX W
Mar 28, 2024-25	PHX 109 @ MIN 124	MIN -7.5	MIN W
Mar 2, 2024-25	MIN 116 @ PHX 98	PHX +2.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 4, Suns 1, even 0

TimberwolvesBetterSuns

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

MINBig

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

MINBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

TimberwolvesBetterSuns

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

MINBig

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINBig

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

MINSmall

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

PHXSmall

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

PHX5.3 #10

MIN		PHX
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.12 #12
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
37.6 #6	3-point %	35.0 #16
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
27.3 #11	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
9.0 #13	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Suns

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Suns

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Suns