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NBA · Fri, Mar 5

Trail Blazers @ Raptors

Scotiabank Arena · at Raptors
#9PORTrail Blazers
@
#7TORRaptors
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PORThis seasonTOR
4-1Record3-3
3-2ATS3-3
2-3O/U3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 114–113 · win probability TOR 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 226.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: POR has more of the edges

POR 3, TOR 2 · 2026-27 so far
PORBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: POR 35.9, TOR 27.7. Allowed: POR 27.8, TOR 41.5
PORBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: POR 56.2 and allows 51.3; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4
PORBig
Three-pointers
POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 51.5% and 38.1% of their shots
TORBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: POR 14.6%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: POR 14.8%, TOR 20.8%
Context
Schedule so far
POR has played the 27th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less
TORSmall
Home court
TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, POR 3-0 away
Even
TOR offense vs POR defense
Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: POR plays 103.5 a game (14th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8
Even
POR offense vs TOR defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: POR 27.6%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: POR 77.3%, TOR 73.4%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: POR 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: POR 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelTOR -1.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model226.2
Model edge—
Projected score
POR 112.6 · TOR 113.6
Win probability
TOR 53%
1st half
Spread
TOR -0.4
Total
113.4
Projected score
POR 56.5 · TOR 56.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Trail Blazers 2, Raptors 2, even 1
Trail BlazersBetterRaptors
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 89
PORBig
G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 34
TORSmall
G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast Score 82
Even
F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 44
TORBig
F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 74
PORSmall
F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52
Trail BlazersBetterRaptors
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Even
TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
Even
TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
PORBig
Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
TORSmall
Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
PORBig
Bench+2.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPOR betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Trail Blazers
Guards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Raptors
Guards
I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min
Forwards
S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min
Out
J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PORTOR
Scoring
120.6 #4Points per game118.2 #10
1.16 #5Points per possession1.11 #13
103.5 #14Pace (possessions)105.5 #8
Shooting
56.2 #4Effective FG%51.0 #22
35.3 #123-point %32.0 #24
51.5 #13-point attempt rate38.1 #25
35.9 #3Free throw rate27.7 #18
Possessions
14.6 #9Turnover rate13.5 #3
27.6 #14Offensive rebound rate32.6 #2
26.2 #17Assists per game29.2 #2
Defense
109.2 #10Points allowed110.3 #13
1.06 #10Points allowed per possession1.05 #5
51.3 #8Opponent effective FG%53.4 #16
32.1 #8Opponent 3-point %36.7 #21
14.8 #20Turnovers forced20.8 #1
77.3 #3Defensive rebound rate73.4 #13
8.6 #18Steals per game12.7 #2
4.2 #21Blocks per game4.3 #19
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Trail Blazers

4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • W@ Jazz112–90
  • Lvs Grizzlies103–124
  • W@ Lakers136–129
  • W@ Kings128–120
  • Wvs Suns124–83

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • L@ Lakers125–131
  • Lvs Magic114–121
  • Wvs Magic129–99
  • L@ Timberwolves94–117
  • W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.