Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Mar 1, 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Nuggets
BKN	This season	DEN
1-5	Record	3-2
3-3	ATS	2-3
3-3	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DEN 121–108 · win probability DEN 83%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 228.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

BKN 1, DEN 6 · 2026-27 so far

DENBig

DEN offense vs BKN defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, DEN 31.3. Allowed: BKN 33.5, DEN 21.5

DENBig

BKN offense vs DEN defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

DENSmall

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 48.0% and 40.9% of their shots

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, DEN 70.5%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, BKN 1-2 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, DEN 15.9%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: BKN away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 3	@ PHX	L102–106WU
Mar 4	@ LAC	L89–126LO
Mar 7	@ LAL	L99–116WU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 3	vs SA	W128–118WO
Mar 7	vs MIN	L98–110
Mar 8	@ SAC	W136–105WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BKN 2–8 DENDEN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · BKN 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 29, 2025-26	BKN 103 @ DEN 107	DEN -6.5	BKN W
Jan 4, 2025-26	DEN 115 @ BKN 127	BKN +2.5	BKN W
Jan 10, 2024-25	BKN 105 @ DEN 124	DEN -14.5	DEN W
Oct 29, 2024-25	DEN 144 @ BKN 139	BKN +5.5	BKN W
Dec 22, 2023-24	DEN 122 @ BKN 117	BKN +5.5	BKN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nuggets has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 0, Nuggets 4, even 1

NetsBetterNuggets

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

DENSmall

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

DENBig

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

DENBig

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

Even

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

DENBig

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

NetsBetterNuggets

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

DENSmall

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

DENBig

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

DENBig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

DENBig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

DEN4.4 #18

BKN		DEN
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.13 #9
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
35.1 #15	3-point %	37.4 #7
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
22.8 #28	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
9.0 #14	Steals per game	10.2 #5
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Nuggets

What could decide it: DEN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Nuggets

Nuggets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Nuggets