Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 3, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns

#27BKNNets

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Suns
BKN	This season	PHX
1-5	Record	1-3
3-3	ATS	0-4
3-3	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 117–108 · win probability PHX 73%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

BKN 4, PHX 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

BKNBig

Recent form

Last 4: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, PHX 17.1%

PHXSmall

BKN offense vs PHX defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, PHX 65.1%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

BKNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, PHX 22.8. Allowed: BKN 33.5, PHX 31.1

BKNSmall

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 48.0% and 45.1% of their shots

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, BKN 1-2 away

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

Even

PHX offense vs BKN defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: BKN away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 4	@ LAC	L89–126LO
Mar 7	@ LAL	L99–116WU
Mar 9	vs MIL	L108–125LO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 5	vs MIN	L104–116LU
Mar 8	@ MIA	L102–111LU
Mar 9	@ ORL	L111–115LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BKN 2–8 PHXPHX leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 3 meetings · BKN 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 27, 2025-26	BKN 102 @ PHX 106	PHX -7.5	BKN W
Jan 19, 2025-26	PHX 126 @ BKN 117	BKN +9.5	BKN W
Jan 22, 2024-25	PHX 108 @ BKN 84	BKN +12.5	PHX W
Nov 27, 2024-25	BKN 127 @ PHX 117	PHX -9.5	BKN W
Jan 31, 2023-24	PHX 136 @ BKN 120	BKN +3.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nets has the better starters

Position by position: Nets 2, Suns 1, even 2

NetsBetterSuns

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

Even

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

BKNSmall

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

Even

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

NetsBetterSuns

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

PHXSmall

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

Even

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

BKNBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

PHX5.3 #10

BKN		PHX
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.12 #12
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
35.1 #15	3-point %	35.0 #16
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
22.8 #28	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
9.0 #14	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Suns

What could decide it: BKN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Suns

Nets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Suns