San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 3, 10:00 PM ETBall Arena · at Nuggets · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Spurs and Nuggets
SA	This season	DEN
4-2	Record	3-2
2-4	ATS	2-3
2-4	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SA 118–113 · win probability SA 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SA 3, DEN 3 · 2026-27 so far

SABig

SA offense vs DEN defense

Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 19th, on the model’s ratings

DENBig

Three-pointers

SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%; DEN hits 37.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 39.0% and 40.9% of their shots

SASmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SA 13.1%, DEN 16.4%. Forced: SA 15.7%, DEN 15.9%

DENSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SA 24.5, DEN 31.3. Allowed: SA 21.7, DEN 21.5

SASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SA 27.2%, DEN 27.5%. Defensive: SA 75.8%, DEN 70.5%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: SA plays 104.3 a game (11th fastest), DEN 102.1 (21st). Faster games mean more points

DENSmall

Home court

DEN at home. This season: DEN 1-1 at home, SA 2-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

SA has played the 15th-hardest schedule, DEN the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SA 53.3 and allows 52.1; DEN 54.7 and allows 54.2

Even

DEN offense vs SA defense

Offense 8th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0; DEN 2-3 ATS, margin -1.2

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SA 100%, DEN 100%. Transfers in: SA 0, DEN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SA LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
DEN LLLWW	2-3	40%	0-2	—

Venue/role: SA away; DEN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SA UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2
DEN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAlast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
DENlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Spurs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 5	@ HOU	L110–114LU
Mar 7	vs NY	L90–94LU
Mar 9	vs WSH	W124–113LU

Nuggets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 7	vs MIN	L98–110
Mar 8	@ SAC	W136–105WO
Mar 10	@ POR	W137–132LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

SA 7–11 DENDEN leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DEN has won the last 3 meetings · SA 10-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 12, 2025-26	DEN 128 @ SA 118	SA -9.5	DEN W
Apr 4, 2025-26	SA 134 @ DEN 136	DEN +1.5	DEN W
Mar 12, 2025-26	DEN 136 @ SA 131	SA -3.5	DEN W
Nov 28, 2025-26	SA 139 @ DEN 136	DEN -7.5	SA W
Apr 2, 2024-25	SA 113 @ DEN 106	DEN -2.5	SA W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Spurs

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsOKC	L 104-116	+1.5	L −10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 23	vsHOU	L 110-114	-4.5	L −8.5	224.5	U 224
Oct 24	@DAL	W 122-106	-14.5	W +1.5	229.5	U 228
Oct 27	vsSAC	W 130-103	-19.5	W +7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 28	@UTAH	W 117-111	-13.5	L −7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsMIN	W 121-111	-12.5	L −2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−10.5

HOU

L 110-114

−8.5

DAL

W 122-106

+1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+7.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−7.5

MIN

W 121-111

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 104-116

−9.5

HOU

L 110-114

−0.5

DAL

W 122-106

−1.5

SAC

W 130-103

+0.5

UTAH

W 117-111

−4.5

MIN

W 121-111

+1.5

over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nuggets

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@OKC	L 84-96	+7.5	L −4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 24	vsNO	W 141-135	-11.5	L −5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 26	vsGS	L 114-134	-6.5	L −26.5	236.5	O 248
Oct 28	@NO	W 104-91	-4.5	W +8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 30	@PHX	W 127-120	-4.5	W +2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−4.5

W 141-135

−5.5

L 114-134

−26.5

W 104-91

+8.5

PHX

W 127-120

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OKC

L 84-96

−56.5

W 141-135

+36.5

L 114-134

+11.5

W 104-91

−46.5

PHX

W 127-120

+15.5

over 3under 2avg −7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Spurs 1, Nuggets 1, even 3

SpursBetterNuggets

G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast Score 98

SABig

G J. Murray25.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 5.6 ast Score 40

G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 53

Even

G C. Braun15.4 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 66

G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast Score 84

Even

F A. Gordon12.8 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast Score 74

G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 69

DENSmall

F C. Johnson8.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 2 ast Score 98

F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast Score 98

Even

C N. Jokic21.2 pts · 9.8 reb · 9.2 ast Score 86

SpursBetterNuggets

SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9

SABig

DEN defense19th of 30 · -0.9

SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7

Even

DEN offense8th of 30 · +2.5

Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players

SABig

Backcourt+7.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player

DENBig

Frontcourt+35.7 · 3 players

Bench+19.9 · 5 players

SABig

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSA betterDEN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Spurs

Guards

D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min

Forwards

V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min

Centers

L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min

Nuggets

Guards

J. Murray38 minC. Braun36 minD. DeRozan26 minR. Nembhard20 minT. Jones10 min

Forwards

A. Gordon30 minC. Johnson23 minT. Brazile23 minC. Whitmore17 minB. Hopkins17 minM. Bagley12 min

Centers

N. Jokic37 min

Out

A. DialloOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SA117.3 #12

DEN114.0 #15

Points per possession

SA1.12 #10

DEN1.13 #9

Pace (possessions)

SA104.3 #11

DEN102.1 #21

Shooting

Effective FG%

SA53.3 #16

DEN54.7 #11

3-point %

SA34.9 #17

DEN37.4 #7

3-point attempt rate

SA39.0 #24

DEN40.9 #22

Free throw rate

SA24.5 #24

DEN31.3 #11

Possessions

Turnover rate

SA13.1 #2

DEN16.4 #21

Offensive rebound rate

SA27.2 #16

DEN27.5 #15

Assists per game

SA27.5 #9

DEN26.8 #14

Defense

Points allowed

SA110.2 #12

DEN115.2 #18

Points allowed per possession

SA1.06 #6

DEN1.12 #20

Opponent effective FG%

SA52.1 #11

DEN54.2 #20

Opponent 3-point %

SA37.3 #23

DEN35.0 #15

Turnovers forced

SA15.7 #14

DEN15.9 #11

Defensive rebound rate

SA75.8 #7

DEN70.5 #22

Steals per game

SA9.2 #10

DEN10.2 #5

Blocks per game

SA7.0 #1

DEN4.4 #18

SA		DEN
Scoring
117.3 #12	Points per game	114.0 #15
1.12 #10	Points per possession	1.13 #9
104.3 #11	Pace (possessions)	102.1 #21
Shooting
53.3 #16	Effective FG%	54.7 #11
34.9 #17	3-point %	37.4 #7
39.0 #24	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #22
24.5 #24	Free throw rate	31.3 #11
Possessions
13.1 #2	Turnover rate	16.4 #21
27.2 #16	Offensive rebound rate	27.5 #15
27.5 #9	Assists per game	26.8 #14
Defense
110.2 #12	Points allowed	115.2 #18
1.06 #6	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #20
52.1 #11	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #20
37.3 #23	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #15
15.7 #14	Turnovers forced	15.9 #11
75.8 #7	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #22
9.2 #10	Steals per game	10.2 #5
7.0 #1	Blocks per game	4.4 #18

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Spurs

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Timberwolves121–111
W@ Jazz117–111
Wvs Kings130–103
W@ Mavericks122–106
Lvs Rockets110–114

A week or more of rest.

Nuggets

3-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Suns127–120
W@ Pelicans104–91
Lvs Warriors114–134
Wvs Pelicans141–135
L@ Thunder84–96

A week or more of rest.

Spurs @ Nuggets

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Spurs

Nuggets

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Spurs

Nuggets