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NBA · Thu, Feb 25

Mavericks @ Warriors

Chase Center · at Warriors · Conference game
#17DALMavericks
@
#13GSWarriors
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
DALThis seasonGS
4-2Record4-3
4-2ATS5-2
2-4O/U4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GS 118–115 · win probability GS 57%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GS has more of the edges

DAL 1, GS 5 · 2026-27 so far
DALBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; GS 55.3 and allows 56.0
GSBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, GS 16.7%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, GS 17.6%
GSSmall
GS offense vs DAL defense
Offense 9th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
GSSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, GS 33.2%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, GS 70.4%
GSSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, GS 28.8. Allowed: DAL 27.2, GS 27.3
GSSmall
Home court
GS at home. This season: GS 2-1 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, GS the 6th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 102 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), GS 101.4 (25th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; GS 5-0 ATS, margin +9.0
Even
DAL offense vs GS defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 14th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; GS hits 40.0% and allows 35.2%. Threes are 42.1% and 47.1% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, GS 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, GS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelGS -2.5
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.9
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 115.2 · GS 117.7
Win probability
GS 57%
1st half
Spread
GS -1.3
Total
116.5
Projected score
DAL 57.6 · GS 58.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Mavericks 2, Warriors 2, even 1
MavericksBetterWarriors
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast Score 9
GSBig
G B. Podziemski16.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.6 ast Score 72
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 78
DALSmall
G D. Melton11.9 pts · 4.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast Score 49
DALBig
G B. Williams11.6 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 5
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 65
Even
F Y. Lendeborg22.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 3.7 ast Score 78
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 46
GSSmall
F G. Niang6.4 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 72
MavericksBetterWarriors
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
Even
GS defense14th of 30 · +0.3
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
GSSmall
GS offense9th of 30 · +1.9
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
GSBig
Backcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
DALBig
Frontcourt+12.0 · 2 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
GSSmall
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterGS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mavericks
Guards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Warriors
Guards
B. Podziemski34 minD. Melton22 minB. Williams17 minW. Richard16 minL. Cryer16 minG. Payton13 min
Forwards
Y. Lendeborg32 minG. Niang20 minG. Ike12 minM. Leons11 min
Centers
A. Horford19 minC. Bassey9 min
Out
S. CurryDay-To-DayG. SantosOutD. GreenDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
DALGS
Scoring
114.3 #14Points per game117.7 #11
1.12 #11Points per possession1.17 #3
102.8 #18Pace (possessions)101.4 #25
Shooting
56.9 #2Effective FG%55.3 #8
35.1 #143-point %40.0 #2
42.1 #183-point attempt rate47.1 #5
21.4 #29Free throw rate28.8 #15
Possessions
16.8 #23Turnover rate16.7 #22
27.8 #13Offensive rebound rate33.2 #1
27.0 #12Assists per game27.4 #10
Defense
111.8 #14Points allowed114.9 #16
1.08 #13Points allowed per possession1.13 #21
51.3 #9Opponent effective FG%56.0 #25
29.7 #2Opponent 3-point %35.2 #16
14.5 #24Turnovers forced17.6 #5
69.4 #25Defensive rebound rate70.4 #23
8.8 #16Steals per game9.1 #11
6.8 #2Blocks per game4.1 #24
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mavericks

4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Rockets116–111
  • Wvs Thunder120–96
  • W@ Heat113–109
  • Lvs Spurs106–122
  • W@ Pacers121–105

A week or more of rest.

Warriors

4-3 overall · 4-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Clippers124–112
  • Wvs Lakers112–95
  • W@ Timberwolves119–114
  • W@ Nuggets134–114
  • L@ Suns122–131

A week or more of rest.