Moda Center · at Trail Blazers · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 DAL | This season | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 4-2 | ATS | 3-2 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 2-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects POR 118–112 · win probability POR 67%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: POR has more of the edges
DAL 0, POR 6 · 2026-27 so far
Context
Schedule so far
DAL has played the 2nd-hardest schedule, POR the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
PORBigFree throws
Free throw rate: DAL 21.4, POR 35.9. Allowed: DAL 27.2, POR 27.8
PORBigRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: DAL 27.8%, POR 27.6%. Defensive: DAL 69.4%, POR 77.3%
PORBigTurnovers
Turnover rate: DAL 16.8%, POR 14.6%. Forced: DAL 14.5%, POR 14.8%
PORSmallPOR offense vs DAL defense
Offense 10th of 30 against a defense 16th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmallDAL offense vs POR defense
Offense 16th of 30 against a defense 11th, on the model’s ratings
PORSmallHome court
POR at home. This season: POR 1-1 at home, DAL 2-1 away
Even
Recent form
Last 5: DAL 4-1 ATS, margin +6.6; POR 3-2 ATS, margin +11.4
Even
Three-pointers
DAL hits 35.1% and allows 29.7%; POR hits 35.3% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 42.1% and 51.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 103 possessions: DAL plays 102.8 a game (18th fastest), POR 103.5 (14th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: DAL 56.9 and allows 51.3; POR 56.2 and allows 51.3
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: DAL 100%, POR 100%. Transfers in: DAL 0, POR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelPOR -6.2
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.8
Model edge—
Projected score
DAL 111.8 · POR 118
Win probability
POR 67%
1st half
Spread
POR -3.4
Total
115.0
Projected score
DAL 55.8 · POR 59.2
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DALlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% |
| PORlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 3-2 60% | 2-3 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22
DAL 14–4 PORDAL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · DAL 12-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025-26 | DAL 100 @ POR 93 | POR -10.5 | DAL W |
| Dec 29, 2025-26 | DAL 122 @ POR 125 | POR -2.5 | POR W |
| Nov 16, 2025-26 | POR 133 @ DAL 138 | DAL +2.5 | DAL W |
| Jan 9, 2024-25 | POR 111 @ DAL 117 | DAL -7.5 | POR W |
| Dec 28, 2024-25 | DAL 122 @ POR 126 | POR +3.5 | POR W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mavericks
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
4-2
67% covers · avg +10.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
@
HOU
HOUL 110-128
−8.5
23
@
IND
INDW 121-105
+23.5
24
vs
SA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@
MIA
MIAW 113-109
+11.5
28
vs
OKC
OKCW 120-96
+28.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+10.5
covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +10.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
@HOU
HOUL 110-128
+7.5
23
@IND
INDW 121-105
−15.5
24
vsSA
SAL 106-122
−1.5
26
@MIA
MIAW 113-109
−18.5
28
vsOKC
OKCW 120-96
−11.5
30
vsHOU
HOUW 116-111
+3.5
over 2under 4avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Trail Blazers
5 games played
Straight up
4-1
80% wins
Against the spread
3-2
60% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-3
40% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
PHX
PHXW 124-83
+37.5
23
@
SAC
SACW 128-120
−1.5
27
@
LAL
LALW 136-129
+8.5
29
vs
MEM
MEML 103-124
−28.5
31
@
UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
+15.5
covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsPHX
PHXW 124-83
−25.5
23
@SAC
SACW 128-120
+16.5
27
@LAL
LALW 136-129
+30.5
29
vsMEM
MEML 103-124
−6.5
31
@UTAH
UTAHW 112-90
−30.5
over 2under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Trail Blazers has the better starters
Position by position: Mavericks 2, Trail Blazers 3, even 0
MavericksBetterTrail Blazers
G M. Christie8.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 2 ast
Score 9
→PORBig
G D. Lillard19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast
Score 89
F P. Washington13.8 pts · 8.2 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 78
←DALBig
G S. Henderson8.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 34
F C. Flagg26.8 pts · 6 reb · 6.6 ast
Score 49
→PORSmall
F D. Avdija23 pts · 6.8 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 82
F Z. Risacher9.5 pts · 6 reb · 1.7 ast
Score 65
←DALSmall
F T. Camara15.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.2 ast
Score 44
F D. Gafford8.5 pts · 7 reb · 2.5 ast
Score 46
→PORSmall
C D. Clingan8.6 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.4 ast
Score 74
MavericksBetterTrail Blazers
DAL offense16th of 30 · +0.6
→PORSmall
POR defense11th of 30 · +1.8
DAL defense16th of 30 · -0.1
→PORSmall
POR offense10th of 30 · +1.4
Backcourt-6.6 · 1 player
→PORBig
Backcourt+11.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt+16.0 · 4 players
=Even
Frontcourt+16.7 · 3 players
Bench+2.7 · 5 players
→PORBig
Bench+15.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestDAL betterPOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
MavericksGuards
M. Christie27 minM. Sasser19 minJ. Howard12 min
Forwards
P. Washington34 minC. Flagg32 minZ. Risacher30 minD. Gafford24 minN. Marshall28 minC. Martin20 min
Centers
M. Cisse14 min
Out
S. de LarreaOutK. IrvingDay-To-Day
Trail BlazersGuards
D. Lillard29 minS. Henderson21 minJ. Holiday25 minS. Cissoko22 minV. Krejci11 minC. Youngblood6 min
Forwards
D. Avdija31 minT. Camara26 minJ. Tonje8 min
Centers
D. Clingan22 minM. Potter19 minR. Williams17 minB. Carlson12 minY. Hansen10 min
Out
J. MorantOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
DAL114.3 #14POR120.6 #4Points per possession
DAL1.12 #11POR1.16 #5Pace (possessions)
DAL102.8 #18POR103.5 #14Shooting
Effective FG%
DAL56.9 #2POR56.2 #43-point %
DAL35.1 #14POR35.3 #123-point attempt rate
DAL42.1 #18POR51.5 #1Free throw rate
DAL21.4 #29POR35.9 #3Possessions
Turnover rate
DAL16.8 #23POR14.6 #9Offensive rebound rate
DAL27.8 #13POR27.6 #14Assists per game
DAL27.0 #12POR26.2 #17Defense
Points allowed
DAL111.8 #14POR109.2 #10Points allowed per possession
DAL1.08 #13POR1.06 #10Opponent effective FG%
DAL51.3 #9POR51.3 #8Opponent 3-point %
DAL29.7 #2POR32.1 #8Turnovers forced
DAL14.5 #24POR14.8 #20Defensive rebound rate
DAL69.4 #25POR77.3 #3Steals per game
DAL8.8 #16POR8.6 #18Blocks per game
DAL6.8 #2POR4.2 #21| DAL | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 114.3 #14 | Points per game | 120.6 #4 |
| 1.12 #11 | Points per possession | 1.16 #5 |
| 102.8 #18 | Pace (possessions) | 103.5 #14 |
| Shooting | ||
| 56.9 #2 | Effective FG% | 56.2 #4 |
| 35.1 #14 | 3-point % | 35.3 #12 |
| 42.1 #18 | 3-point attempt rate | 51.5 #1 |
| 21.4 #29 | Free throw rate | 35.9 #3 |
| Possessions | ||
| 16.8 #23 | Turnover rate | 14.6 #9 |
| 27.8 #13 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.6 #14 |
| 27.0 #12 | Assists per game | 26.2 #17 |
| Defense | ||
| 111.8 #14 | Points allowed | 109.2 #10 |
| 1.08 #13 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #10 |
| 51.3 #9 | Opponent effective FG% | 51.3 #8 |
| 29.7 #2 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.1 #8 |
| 14.5 #24 | Turnovers forced | 14.8 #20 |
| 69.4 #25 | Defensive rebound rate | 77.3 #3 |
| 8.8 #16 | Steals per game | 8.6 #18 |
| 6.8 #2 | Blocks per game | 4.2 #21 |
Mavericks
4-2 overall · 2-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Rockets116–111
- Wvs Thunder120–96
- W@ Heat113–109
- Lvs Spurs106–122
- W@ Pacers121–105
A week or more of rest.
Trail Blazers
4-1 overall · 4-1 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Jazz112–90
- Lvs Grizzlies103–124
- W@ Lakers136–129
- W@ Kings128–120
- Wvs Suns124–83
A week or more of rest.