Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Feb 26, 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pacers and Timberwolves
IND	This season	MIN
2-5	Record	4-3
3-4	ATS	6-1
3-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 124–107 · win probability MIN 88%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

IND 0, MIN 7 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

MIN offense vs IND defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

IND has played the 29th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

IND offense vs MIN defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IND 23.1%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: IND 72.7%, MIN 75.4%

MINBig

Three-pointers

IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 43.1% and 42.8% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: IND 53.9 and allows 53.9; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, IND 2-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: IND plays 103.1 a game (15th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: IND 31.2, MIN 26.1. Allowed: IND 32.1, MIN 28.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IND 14.8%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: IND 14.9%, MIN 15.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IND 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: IND 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: IND away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	vs TOR	L104–122LU
Mar 2	vs BOS	L104–119LU
Mar 4	@ ORL	W128–126WO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	vs BOS	W102–92WU
Mar 2	@ OKC	L103–116LU
Mar 5	@ PHX	W116–104WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

IND 2–8 MINMIN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings · IND 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Apr 7, 2025-26	MIN 124 @ IND 104	IND +12.5	MIN W
Oct 26, 2025-26	IND 110 @ MIN 114	MIN -11.5	IND W
Mar 24, 2024-25	MIN 103 @ IND 119	IND +2.5	IND W
Mar 17, 2024-25	IND 132 @ MIN 130	MIN -10.5	IND W
Mar 7, 2023-24	MIN 113 @ IND 111	IND -1.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Pacers 1, Timberwolves 4, even 0

PacersBetterTimberwolves

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

INDSmall

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

MINBig

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

MINSmall

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

MINSmall

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

PacersBetterTimberwolves

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

MINBig

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

MINBig

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

MINSmall

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestIND betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IND112.9 #18

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

IND1.10 #17

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

IND103.1 #15

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

IND53.9 #14

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

IND34.1 #18

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

IND43.1 #15

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

IND31.2 #12

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

IND14.8 #10

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

IND23.1 #27

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

IND28.0 #7

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

IND116.7 #23

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

IND1.13 #23

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

IND53.9 #19

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

IND35.9 #20

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

IND14.9 #19

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

IND72.7 #16

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

IND6.9 #27

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

IND4.0 #26

MIN4.3 #20

IND		MIN
Scoring
112.9 #18	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.10 #17	Points per possession	1.13 #8
103.1 #15	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
53.9 #14	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
34.1 #18	3-point %	37.6 #6
43.1 #15	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
31.2 #12	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
14.8 #10	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
23.1 #27	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
28.0 #7	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
116.7 #23	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.13 #23	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
53.9 #19	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
35.9 #20	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
14.9 #19	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
72.7 #16	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
6.9 #27	Steals per game	9.0 #13
4.0 #26	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Pacers @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pacers

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pacers

Timberwolves