Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 2, 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · at Pacers · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Pacers
BOS	This season	IND
5-1	Record	2-5
3-3	ATS	3-4
2-4	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 118–107 · win probability BOS 77%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 225.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

BOS 5, IND 1 · 2026-27 so far

BOSBig

IND offense vs BOS defense

Offense 24th of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

BOSBig

BOS offense vs IND defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 25th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; IND 53.9 and allows 53.9

BOSSmall

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; IND hits 34.1% and allows 35.9%. Threes are 45.9% and 43.1% of their shots

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, IND 14.8%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, IND 14.9%

INDSmall

Home court

IND at home. This season: IND 0-3 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, IND the 29th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, IND 31.2. Allowed: BOS 31.7, IND 32.1

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; IND 2-3 ATS, margin -2.8

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, IND 23.1%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, IND 72.7%

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), IND 103.1 (15th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, IND 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, IND 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
IND WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: BOS away; IND home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
IND OUUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
INDlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 5	@ DET	L113–121LO
Mar 7	vs PHI	L100–109LO
Mar 9	@ CHI	W125–111LU

Pacers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 4	@ ORL	W128–126WO
Mar 6	@ MIA	L125–145LO
Mar 8	vs CHA	L108–129LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 23 since 2021-22

BOS 16–7 INDBOS leads · 23 games since 2021-22 · BOS 8-15 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 21, 2025-26	IND 104 @ BOS 119	BOS -10.5	BOS W
Jan 12, 2025-26	BOS 96 @ IND 98	IND +5.5	IND W
Dec 26, 2025-26	BOS 140 @ IND 122	IND +8.5	BOS W
Dec 22, 2025-26	IND 95 @ BOS 103	BOS -11.5	IND W
Dec 29, 2024-25	IND 123 @ BOS 114	BOS -10.5	IND W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pacers

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −6.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-443%

O U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@NO	W 123-120	-2.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	vsDAL	L 105-121	-7.5	L −23.5	241.5	U 226
Oct 25	@BKN	W 136-109	-5.5	W +21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 26	@MIL	L 102-110	-3.5	L −11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsPHI	L 109-114	+7.5	W +2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	@MIA	L 125-145	+8.5	L −11.5	236.5	O 270
Nov 1	vsBKN	L 90-98	-3.5	L −11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 123-120

+0.5

DAL

L 105-121

−23.5

BKN

W 136-109

+21.5

MIL

L 102-110

−11.5

PHI

L 109-114

+2.5

MIA

L 125-145

−11.5

BKN

L 90-98

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 123-120

+4.5

DAL

L 105-121

−15.5

BKN

W 136-109

+13.5

MIL

L 102-110

−27.5

PHI

L 109-114

−11.5

MIA

L 125-145

+33.5

BKN

L 90-98

−42.5

over 3under 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 4, Pacers 0, even 1

CelticsBetterPacers

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSSmall

G A. Nembhard18.5 pts · 2.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 70

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

BOSBig

G K. Oubre9.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 32

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

BOSSmall

G A. Nesmith12.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

Even

F P. Siakam21.4 pts · 7.4 reb · 4 ast Score 74

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

BOSBig

C J. Huff6 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 10

CelticsBetterPacers

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

BOSSmall

IND defense25th of 30 · -3.8

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

BOSBig

IND offense24th of 30 · -2.3

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+10.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+4.0 · 2 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench-26.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterIND betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Pacers

Guards

A. Nembhard33 minK. Oubre23 minA. Nesmith23 minQ. Jackson20 minK. Brown12 minB. Smith6 min

Forwards

P. Siakam32 minJ. Walker22 minL. Nance16 minJ. Slawson13 min

Centers

J. Huff17 min

Out

I. ZubacOutO. ToppinDay-To-DayT. HaliburtonOutB. SheppardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

IND112.9 #18

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

IND1.10 #17

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

IND103.1 #15

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

IND53.9 #14

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

IND34.1 #18

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

IND43.1 #15

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

IND31.2 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

IND14.8 #10

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

IND23.1 #27

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

IND28.0 #7

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

IND116.7 #23

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

IND1.13 #23

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

IND53.9 #19

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

IND35.9 #20

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

IND14.9 #19

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

IND72.7 #16

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

IND6.9 #27

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

IND4.0 #26

BOS		IND
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	112.9 #18
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.10 #17
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	103.1 #15
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	53.9 #14
35.5 #10	3-point %	34.1 #18
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	43.1 #15
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	31.2 #12
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	14.8 #10
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	23.1 #27
28.0 #6	Assists per game	28.0 #7
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	116.7 #23
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #23
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #19
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	35.9 #20
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	14.9 #19
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #16
9.2 #9	Steals per game	6.9 #27
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	4.0 #26

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Pacers

2-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nets90–98
L@ Heat125–145
Lvs 76ers109–114
L@ Bucks102–110
W@ Nets136–109

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Pacers

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Pacers

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Pacers