Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 2, 7:00 PM ETKia Center · at Magic

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lakers and Magic
LAL	This season	ORL
5-2	Record	2-4
4-3	ATS	2-4
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LAL 117–115 · win probability LAL 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 231.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

LAL 4, ORL 1 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

LAL has played the 16th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

LALBig

LAL offense vs ORL defense

Offense 4th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

LALBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAL 18.3%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: LAL 17.8%, ORL 13.6%

LALSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAL 60.1 and allows 53.7; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, LAL 2-1 away

LALSmall

ORL offense vs LAL defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: LAL 3-2 ATS, margin +1.4; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAL 37.2, ORL 31.7. Allowed: LAL 30.7, ORL 29.8

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: LAL plays 102.9 a game (17th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAL 26.8%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: LAL 67.4%, ORL 68.9%

Even

Three-pointers

LAL hits 38.9% and allows 36.7%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 45.7% and 46.5% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAL 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: LAL 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: LAL away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAL OOUUO	4-3	57%	5-2
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LALlast 7	5-2 71%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lakers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 4	@ PHI	W119–115WU
Mar 6	vs OKC	L110–115WO
Mar 7	vs BKN	W116–99LU

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 4	vs IND	L126–128LO
Mar 5	vs UTAH	W120–117LO
Mar 9	vs PHX	W115–111WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

LAL 6–4 ORLLAL leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · LAL 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 21, 2025-26	LAL 105 @ ORL 104	ORL +2.5	ORL W
Feb 24, 2025-26	ORL 110 @ LAL 109	LAL -6.5	ORL W
Mar 24, 2024-25	LAL 106 @ ORL 118	ORL +4.5	ORL W
Nov 21, 2024-25	ORL 119 @ LAL 118	LAL -5.5	ORL W
Nov 4, 2023-24	LAL 101 @ ORL 120	ORL +3.5	ORL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lakers

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

W W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsGS	W 127-105	-6.5	W +15.5	233.5	U 232
Oct 23	vsLAC	W 125-117	-8.5	L −0.5	225.5	O 242
Oct 25	@UTAH	W 132-123	-6.5	W +2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 27	vsPOR	L 129-136	-1.5	L −8.5	234.5	O 265
Oct 28	@LAC	W 103-87	+1.5	W +17.5	224.5	U 190
Oct 30	@GS	L 95-112	-2.5	L −19.5	234.5	U 207
Nov 1	vsTOR	W 131-125	-3.5	W +2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 127-105

+15.5

LAC

W 125-117

−0.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+2.5

POR

L 129-136

−8.5

LAC

W 103-87

+17.5

L 95-112

−19.5

TOR

W 131-125

+2.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 127-105

−1.5

LAC

W 125-117

+16.5

UTAH

W 132-123

+17.5

POR

L 129-136

+30.5

LAC

W 103-87

−34.5

L 95-112

−27.5

TOR

W 131-125

+31.5

over 4under 3avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lakers has the better starters

Position by position: Lakers 3, Magic 1, even 1

LakersBetterMagic

G A. Reaves23.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 82

LALSmall

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G L. Doncic37.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 7.3 ast Score 79

LALBig

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

G M. Thybulle9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 50

ORLBig

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

F J. LaRavia5.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 70

LALBig

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

C W. Kessler14.3 pts · 9.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 42

Even

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

LakersBetterMagic

LAL offense4th of 30 · +3.2

LALBig

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

LAL defense17th of 30 · -0.2

Even

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+24.2 · 3 players

LALBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.4 · 2 players

ORLBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench+6.7 · 5 players

LALBig

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAL betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lakers

Guards

A. Reaves36 minL. Doncic36 minM. Thybulle25 minQ. Grimes27 minC. Sexton18 minJ. Hardy16 min

Forwards

J. LaRavia23 minS. Mamukelashvili24 minJ. Vanderbilt15 minK. Looney8 minA. KalumaNewA. OkerekeNew

Centers

W. Kessler31 min

Out

Z. WilliamsOut

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAL120.3 #5

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

LAL1.18 #2

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

LAL102.9 #17

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAL60.1 #1

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

LAL38.9 #4

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

LAL45.7 #9

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

LAL37.2 #2

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAL18.3 #28

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

LAL26.8 #19

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

LAL23.4 #27

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

LAL115.0 #17

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

LAL1.11 #19

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

LAL53.7 #17

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

LAL36.7 #22

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

LAL17.8 #4

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

LAL67.4 #29

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

LAL10.4 #4

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

LAL6.7 #3

ORL4.2 #23

LAL		ORL
Scoring
120.3 #5	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.18 #2	Points per possession	1.07 #21
102.9 #17	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
60.1 #1	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
38.9 #4	3-point %	35.4 #11
45.7 #9	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
37.2 #2	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
18.3 #28	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
26.8 #19	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
23.4 #27	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
115.0 #17	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.11 #19	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
53.7 #17	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
36.7 #22	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
17.8 #4	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
67.4 #29	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
10.4 #4	Steals per game	7.0 #26
6.7 #3	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lakers

5-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Raptors131–125
L@ Warriors95–112
W@ Clippers103–87
Lvs Trail Blazers129–136
W@ Jazz132–123

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Lakers @ Magic

What could decide it: LAL has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Lakers

Magic

Lakers has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lakers

Magic