Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 28, 7:00 PM ETTarget Center · at Timberwolves

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Celtics and Timberwolves
BOS	This season	MIN
5-1	Record	4-3
3-3	ATS	6-1
2-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 114–110 · win probability MIN 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

BOS 1, MIN 4 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

BOS has played the 25th-hardest schedule, MIN the 7th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BOS 28.3%, MIN 30.0%. Defensive: BOS 68.4%, MIN 75.4%

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BOS 14.9%, MIN 15.1%. Forced: BOS 17.8%, MIN 15.6%

MINSmall

BOS offense vs MIN defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

MINSmall

Three-pointers

BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%; MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 45.9% and 42.8% of their shots

MINSmall

Home court

MIN at home. This season: MIN 2-1 at home, BOS 1-1 away

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: BOS plays 103.0 a game (16th fastest), MIN 105.4 (9th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3; MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0; MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BOS 32.3, MIN 26.1. Allowed: BOS 31.7, MIN 28.9

Even

MIN offense vs BOS defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BOS 100%, MIN 100%. Transfers in: BOS 0, MIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BOS away; MIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 2	@ IND	W119–104WU
Mar 5	@ DET	L113–121LO
Mar 7	vs PHI	L100–109LO

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 2	@ OKC	L103–116LU
Mar 5	@ PHX	W116–104WU
Mar 7	@ DEN	W110–98

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

BOS 6–4 MINBOS leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings · BOS 4-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 22, 2025-26	MIN 102 @ BOS 92	BOS -10.5	MIN W
Nov 29, 2025-26	BOS 115 @ MIN 119	MIN -5.5	BOS W
Jan 2, 2024-25	BOS 118 @ MIN 115	MIN +2.5	BOS W
Nov 24, 2024-25	MIN 105 @ BOS 107	BOS -8.5	MIN W
Jan 10, 2023-24	MIN 120 @ BOS 127	BOS -10.5	MIN W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Celtics 1, Timberwolves 3, even 1

CelticsBetterTimberwolves

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

BOSBig

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

MINSmall

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

Even

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

MINSmall

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

MINBig

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

CelticsBetterTimberwolves

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

MINSmall

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

Even

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

BOSBig

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBOS betterMIN betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BOS118.7 #8

MIN120.0 #6

Points per possession

BOS1.15 #6

MIN1.13 #8

Pace (possessions)

BOS103.0 #16

MIN105.4 #9

Shooting

Effective FG%

BOS55.0 #10

MIN55.8 #6

3-point %

BOS35.5 #10

MIN37.6 #6

3-point attempt rate

BOS45.9 #7

MIN42.8 #16

Free throw rate

BOS32.3 #7

MIN26.1 #21

Possessions

Turnover rate

BOS14.9 #11

MIN15.1 #12

Offensive rebound rate

BOS28.3 #12

MIN30.0 #7

Assists per game

BOS28.0 #6

MIN27.3 #11

Defense

Points allowed

BOS109.2 #9

MIN108.7 #8

Points allowed per possession

BOS1.06 #9

MIN1.04 #4

Opponent effective FG%

BOS51.3 #7

MIN50.5 #5

Opponent 3-point %

BOS33.8 #12

MIN31.2 #6

Turnovers forced

BOS17.8 #3

MIN15.6 #17

Defensive rebound rate

BOS68.4 #27

MIN75.4 #8

Steals per game

BOS9.2 #9

MIN9.0 #13

Blocks per game

BOS4.0 #25

MIN4.3 #20

BOS		MIN
Scoring
118.7 #8	Points per game	120.0 #6
1.15 #6	Points per possession	1.13 #8
103.0 #16	Pace (possessions)	105.4 #9
Shooting
55.0 #10	Effective FG%	55.8 #6
35.5 #10	3-point %	37.6 #6
45.9 #7	3-point attempt rate	42.8 #16
32.3 #7	Free throw rate	26.1 #21
Possessions
14.9 #11	Turnover rate	15.1 #12
28.3 #12	Offensive rebound rate	30.0 #7
28.0 #6	Assists per game	27.3 #11
Defense
109.2 #9	Points allowed	108.7 #8
1.06 #9	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #4
51.3 #7	Opponent effective FG%	50.5 #5
33.8 #12	Opponent 3-point %	31.2 #6
17.8 #3	Turnovers forced	15.6 #17
68.4 #27	Defensive rebound rate	75.4 #8
9.2 #9	Steals per game	9.0 #13
4.0 #25	Blocks per game	4.3 #20

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Celtics @ Timberwolves

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Celtics

Timberwolves

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Celtics

Timberwolves