Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 28, 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · at Hornets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Hornets
SAC	This season	CHA
0-6	Record	3-4
1-5	ATS	3-4
5-1	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHA 117–106 · win probability CHA 78%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CHA has more of the edges

SAC 1, CHA 4 · 2026-27 so far

CHABig

SAC offense vs CHA defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 6th, on the model’s ratings

CHABig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, CHA 31.6%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, CHA 76.6%

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, CHA the 22nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), CHA 98.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points

SACSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, CHA 18.8%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, CHA 14.5%

CHASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; CHA 48.4 and allows 53.1

CHASmall

Home court

CHA at home. This season: CHA 2-2 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; CHA 2-3 ATS, margin -3.4

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, CHA 18.9. Allowed: SAC 31.2, CHA 28.4

Even

CHA offense vs SAC defense

Offense 30th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; CHA hits 29.6% and allows 37.5%. Threes are 38.0% and 50.8% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, CHA 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, CHA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
CHA WWLLL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: SAC away; CHA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
CHA UUUUO	1-6	14%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
CHAlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 2	vs WSH	L112–116LO
Mar 4	vs OKC	L99–113WU
Mar 6	vs LAC	L96–121LU

Hornets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 3	@ PHI	L104–109LO
Mar 6	@ CHI	W131–99WU
Mar 8	@ IND	W129–108WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

SAC 5–5 CHASeries tied · 10 games since 2021-22 · CHA has won the last 2 meetings · SAC 6-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 24, 2025-26	SAC 90 @ CHA 134	CHA -18.5	CHA W
Mar 11, 2025-26	CHA 117 @ SAC 109	SAC +14.5	SAC W
Apr 4, 2024-25	SAC 125 @ CHA 102	CHA +11.5	SAC W
Feb 24, 2024-25	CHA 88 @ SAC 130	SAC -10.5	SAC W
Jan 10, 2023-24	SAC 123 @ CHA 98	CHA +8.5	SAC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hornets

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −15.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@BKN	W 110-103	-1.5	W +5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 23	vsATL	L 81-128	+2.5	L −44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsMIA	W 115-110	+4.5	W +9.5	227.5	U 225
Oct 26	vsWSH	W 110-103	-2.5	W +4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@DET	L 89-97	+7.5	L −0.5	212.5	U 186
Oct 30	@WSH	L 79-95	+1.5	L −14.5	218.5	U 174
Oct 31	vsPHI	L 104-109	+1.5	L −3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

+5.5

ATL

L 81-128

−44.5

MIA

W 115-110

+9.5

WSH

W 110-103

+4.5

DET

L 89-97

−0.5

WSH

L 79-95

−14.5

PHI

L 104-109

−3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BKN

W 110-103

−7.5

ATL

L 81-128

−17.5

MIA

W 115-110

−2.5

WSH

W 110-103

−12.5

DET

L 89-97

−26.5

WSH

L 79-95

−44.5

PHI

L 104-109

+1.5

over 1under 6avg −15.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hornets has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Hornets 4, even 1

KingsBetterHornets

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

CHASmall

G D. Schroder11.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 5.4 ast Score 21

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

CHABig

G S. James3.7 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 63

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

CHASmall

F B. Miller24.4 pts · 6 reb · 2.3 ast Score 70

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

CHABig

F M. Diabate9.4 pts · 9.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 66

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

Even

C N. Reid15.9 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 14

KingsBetterHornets

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

CHABig

CHA defense6th of 30 · +4.4

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

Even

CHA offense30th of 30 · -7.4

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

CHABig

Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

CHABig

Frontcourt+7.7 · 3 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

CHABig

Bench-5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterCHA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Hornets

Guards

D. Schroder32 minS. James25 minG. Allen27 minL. McNeeley12 minC. Anderson11 minM. AjayiNew

Forwards

B. Miller34 minM. Diabate29 minR. O'Neale18 minT. Salaun14 minH. Steinbach7 min

Centers

N. Reid29 minR. Kalkbrenner17 minP. Hall13 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

CHA98.3 #30

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

CHA0.99 #30

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

CHA98.3 #30

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

CHA48.4 #29

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

CHA29.6 #28

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

CHA50.8 #2

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

CHA18.9 #30

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

CHA18.8 #29

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

CHA31.6 #4

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

CHA21.6 #30

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

CHA106.4 #4

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

CHA1.09 #15

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

CHA53.1 #15

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

CHA37.5 #24

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

CHA14.5 #23

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

CHA76.6 #5

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

CHA7.1 #25

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

CHA5.0 #15

SAC		CHA
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	98.3 #30
1.03 #28	Points per possession	0.99 #30
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	98.3 #30
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	48.4 #29
30.4 #27	3-point %	29.6 #28
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	50.8 #2
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	18.9 #30
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	18.8 #29
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	31.6 #4
24.5 #23	Assists per game	21.6 #30
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	106.4 #4
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #15
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #15
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	37.5 #24
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	14.5 #23
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	76.6 #5
8.0 #21	Steals per game	7.1 #25
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	5.0 #15

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Hornets

3-4 overall · 3-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs 76ers104–109
L@ Wizards79–95
L@ Pistons89–97
Wvs Wizards110–103
Wvs Heat115–110

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Hornets

What could decide it: CHA has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Hornets

Hornets has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Hornets