Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 2, 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · at Kings

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Kings
WSH	This season	SAC
3-3	Record	0-6
3-3	ATS	1-5
1-5	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WSH 119–116 · win probability WSH 60%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 234.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

WSH 5, SAC 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, SAC the 8th. A record against a soft schedule means less

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, SAC 26.4. Allowed: WSH 21.8, SAC 31.2

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4

WSHBig

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%. Threes are 37.6% and 38.0% of their shots

SACSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, SAC 22.9%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, SAC 73.7%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), SAC 106.0 (6th). Faster games mean more points

SACSmall

Home court

SAC at home. This season: SAC 0-2 at home, WSH 1-2 away

WSHSmall

SAC offense vs WSH defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

WSHSmall

WSH offense vs SAC defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, SAC 15.9%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, SAC 14.6%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, SAC 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, SAC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	—

Venue/role: WSH away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 4	@ GS	L126–131WO
Mar 6	vs UTAH	W133–110WO
Mar 9	@ SA	L113–124WU

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 4	vs OKC	L99–113WU
Mar 6	vs LAC	L96–121LU
Mar 8	vs DEN	L105–136LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 4–6 SACSAC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · WSH 5-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 1, 2025-26	SAC 112 @ WSH 116	WSH +1.5	WSH W
Jan 16, 2025-26	WSH 115 @ SAC 128	SAC -7.5	SAC W
Apr 2, 2024-25	SAC 111 @ WSH 116	WSH +13.5	WSH W
Jan 19, 2024-25	WSH 100 @ SAC 123	SAC -17.5	SAC W
Mar 21, 2023-24	SAC 102 @ WSH 109	WSH +11.5	WSH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wizards has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 3, Kings 1, even 1

WizardsBetterKings

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

WSHSmall

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

SACSmall

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

WSHSmall

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

WizardsBetterKings

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Even

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

Even

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

WSHBig

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

SACSmall

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterSAC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

SAC109.3 #22

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

SAC1.03 #28

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

SAC106.0 #6

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

SAC51.0 #23

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

SAC30.4 #27

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

SAC38.0 #27

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

SAC26.4 #20

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

SAC15.9 #19

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

SAC22.9 #28

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

SAC24.5 #23

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

SAC128.3 #29

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

SAC1.21 #29

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

SAC60.4 #30

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

SAC39.2 #27

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

SAC14.6 #22

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

SAC73.7 #12

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

SAC8.0 #21

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

SAC2.3 #30

WSH		SAC
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	109.3 #22
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.03 #28
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	106.0 #6
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	51.0 #23
29.3 #29	3-point %	30.4 #27
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #27
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	26.4 #20
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	15.9 #19
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	22.9 #28
24.5 #24	Assists per game	24.5 #23
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	128.3 #29
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #29
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	60.4 #30
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	39.2 #27
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	14.6 #22
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	73.7 #12
7.2 #24	Steals per game	8.0 #21
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	2.3 #30

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Kings

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Kings

Wizards has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Kings