Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Mar 2, 8:00 PM ETPaycom Center · at Thunder · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Timberwolves and Thunder
MIN	This season	OKC
4-3	Record	4-2
6-1	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIN 113–110 · win probability MIN 58%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 223.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

MIN 5, OKC 2 · 2026-27 so far

MINBig

Three-pointers

MIN hits 37.6% and allows 31.2%; OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 42.8% and 35.8% of their shots

MINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIN 55.8 and allows 50.5; OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0

MINBig

OKC offense vs MIN defense

Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: MIN plays 105.4 a game (9th fastest), OKC 101.1 (27th). Faster games mean more points

MINSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIN 30.0%, OKC 28.5%. Defensive: MIN 75.4%, OKC 71.4%

MINSmall

Recent form

Last 5: MIN 4-1 ATS, margin +6.4; OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0

OKCSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIN 15.1%, OKC 14.5%. Forced: MIN 15.6%, OKC 15.8%

OKCSmall

Home court

OKC at home. This season: OKC 3-0 at home, MIN 2-2 away

Context

Schedule so far

MIN has played the 7th-hardest schedule, OKC the 5th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIN 26.1, OKC 21.8. Allowed: MIN 28.9, OKC 23.4

Even

MIN offense vs OKC defense

Offense 3rd of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIN 100%, OKC 100%. Transfers in: MIN 0, OKC 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWLWW	6-1	86%	4-0	—
OKC WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: MIN away; OKC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
OKC UUOUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 7	4-3 57%	6-1 86%	4-3 57%
OKClast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Timberwolves

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 5	@ PHX	W116–104WU
Mar 7	@ DEN	W110–98
Mar 8	vs NO	W132–126WO

Thunder

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 4	@ SAC	W113–99LU
Mar 6	@ LAL	W115–110LO
Mar 8	vs DAL	L96–120LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 26 since 2021-22

MIN 15–11 OKCMIN leads · 26 games since 2021-22 · MIN 15-11 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 15, 2025-26	MIN 103 @ OKC 116	OKC -8.5	OKC W
Jan 29, 2025-26	OKC 111 @ MIN 123	MIN +5.5	MIN W
Dec 19, 2025-26	OKC 107 @ MIN 112	MIN +5.5	MIN W
Nov 26, 2025-26	MIN 105 @ OKC 113	OKC -10.5	MIN W
May 28, 2024-25	MIN 94 @ OKC 124	OKC -8.5	OKC W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Timberwolves

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

6-1

86% covers · avg +12.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-186%

W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-357%

U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MIA	W 131-106	+1.5	W +26.5	240.5	U 237
Oct 23	@ORL	W 115-93	+1.5	W +23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	vsTOR	W 117-94	-3.5	W +19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 26	@CLE	L 125-127	+3.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsGS	L 114-119	-3.5	L −8.5	227.5	O 233
Oct 30	vsLAC	W 127-101	-6.5	W +19.5	222.5	O 228
Oct 31	@SA	L 111-121	+12.5	W +2.5	230.5	O 232

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

+26.5

ORL

W 115-93

+23.5

TOR

W 117-94

+19.5

CLE

L 125-127

+1.5

L 114-119

−8.5

LAC

W 127-101

+19.5

L 111-121

+2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIA

W 131-106

−3.5

ORL

W 115-93

−26.5

TOR

W 117-94

−17.5

CLE

L 125-127

+17.5

L 114-119

+5.5

LAC

W 127-101

+5.5

L 111-121

+1.5

over 4under 3avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Thunder

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@SA	W 116-104	-1.5	W +10.5	229.5	U 220
Oct 22	vsDEN	W 96-84	-7.5	W +4.5	236.5	U 180
Oct 25	vsLAC	W 108-101	-16.5	L −9.5	223.5	U 209
Oct 26	vsPHX	W 125-114	-8.5	W +2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 28	@DAL	L 96-120	-4.5	L −28.5	227.5	U 216
Oct 31	@HOU	L 98-119	+2.5	L −18.5	219.5	U 217

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 116-104

+10.5

DEN

W 96-84

+4.5

LAC

W 108-101

−9.5

PHX

W 125-114

+2.5

DAL

L 96-120

−28.5

HOU

L 98-119

−18.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 116-104

−9.5

DEN

W 96-84

−56.5

LAC

W 108-101

−14.5

PHX

W 125-114

+17.5

DAL

L 96-120

−11.5

HOU

L 98-119

−2.5

over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Timberwolves has the better starters

Position by position: Timberwolves 2, Thunder 1, even 2

TimberwolvesBetterThunder

G A. Dosunmu15.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 42

OKCBig

G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 88

G L. Ball14.4 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.3 ast Score 91

Even

G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast Score 99

F J. McDaniels17.3 pts · 6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 96

MINBig

G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 8

F J. Kuminga12.9 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92

MINBig

G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 40

C R. Gobert7 pts · 12.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 98

Even

C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

TimberwolvesBetterThunder

MIN offense3rd of 30 · +3.7

Even

OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2

MIN defense8th of 30 · +3.6

MINSmall

OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1

Backcourt+12.6 · 2 players

OKCBig

Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+46.4 · 3 players

MINBig

Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player

Bench+0.3 · 5 players

MINBig

Bench-4.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIN betterOKC betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Timberwolves

Guards

A. Dosunmu29 minL. Ball25 minT. Shannon22 minB. Hyland12 minJ. Clark9 minZ. Pullin8 min

Forwards

J. McDaniels33 minJ. Kuminga30 minC. Williams24 minJ. Beringer19 minT. Lyles16 minI. Evans3 min

Centers

R. Gobert30 min

Out

A. EdwardsOut

Thunder

Guards

S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min

Forwards

J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min

Centers

I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min

Out

A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIN120.0 #6

OKC106.5 #29

Points per possession

MIN1.13 #8

OKC1.05 #23

Pace (possessions)

MIN105.4 #9

OKC101.1 #27

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIN55.8 #6

OKC49.5 #28

3-point %

MIN37.6 #6

OKC30.9 #26

3-point attempt rate

MIN42.8 #16

OKC35.8 #29

Free throw rate

MIN26.1 #21

OKC21.8 #28

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIN15.1 #12

OKC14.5 #7

Offensive rebound rate

MIN30.0 #7

OKC28.5 #10

Assists per game

MIN27.3 #11

OKC21.7 #29

Defense

Points allowed

MIN108.7 #8

OKC107.0 #5

Points allowed per possession

MIN1.04 #4

OKC1.06 #7

Opponent effective FG%

MIN50.5 #5

OKC51.0 #6

Opponent 3-point %

MIN31.2 #6

OKC35.3 #17

Turnovers forced

MIN15.6 #17

OKC15.8 #13

Defensive rebound rate

MIN75.4 #8

OKC71.4 #18

Steals per game

MIN9.0 #13

OKC8.3 #20

Blocks per game

MIN4.3 #20

OKC6.3 #7

MIN		OKC
Scoring
120.0 #6	Points per game	106.5 #29
1.13 #8	Points per possession	1.05 #23
105.4 #9	Pace (possessions)	101.1 #27
Shooting
55.8 #6	Effective FG%	49.5 #28
37.6 #6	3-point %	30.9 #26
42.8 #16	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #29
26.1 #21	Free throw rate	21.8 #28
Possessions
15.1 #12	Turnover rate	14.5 #7
30.0 #7	Offensive rebound rate	28.5 #10
27.3 #11	Assists per game	21.7 #29
Defense
108.7 #8	Points allowed	107.0 #5
1.04 #4	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #7
50.5 #5	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #6
31.2 #6	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #17
15.6 #17	Turnovers forced	15.8 #13
75.4 #8	Defensive rebound rate	71.4 #18
9.0 #13	Steals per game	8.3 #20
4.3 #20	Blocks per game	6.3 #7

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Timberwolves

4-3 overall · 1-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Spurs111–121
Wvs Clippers127–101
Lvs Warriors114–119
L@ Cavaliers125–127
Wvs Raptors117–94

A week or more of rest.

Thunder

4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Rockets98–119
L@ Mavericks96–120
Wvs Suns125–114
Wvs Clippers108–101
Wvs Nuggets96–84

A week or more of rest.

Timberwolves @ Thunder

What could decide it: MIN has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Timberwolves

Thunder

Timberwolves has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Timberwolves

Thunder