Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 28, 4:30 PM ETKia Center · at Magic · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Magic
ATL	This season	ORL
3-4	Record	2-4
3-4	ATS	2-4
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ORL 115–115 · win probability ORL 50%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 230.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ATL 3, ORL 3 · 2026-27 so far

ATLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, ORL 17.0%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, ORL 13.6%

ORLBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, ORL 31.7. Allowed: ATL 32.1, ORL 29.8

ATLSmall

ATL offense vs ORL defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 15th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, ORL the 1st. A record against a soft schedule means less

ATLSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, ORL 23.4%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, ORL 68.9%

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), ORL 101.9 (22nd). Faster games mean more points

ORLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; ORL 53.4 and allows 53.0

ORLSmall

Home court

ORL at home. This season: ORL 0-3 at home, ATL 2-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; ORL 2-3 ATS, margin -9.4

Even

ORL offense vs ATL defense

Offense 21st of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; ORL hits 35.4% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 44.7% and 46.5% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, ORL 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, ORL 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
ORL LWLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: ATL away; ORL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
ORL UUOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
ORLlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 3	vs CHI	L123–126LU
Mar 4	vs MEM	W146–107WO
Mar 6	@ CLE	W114–111WU

Magic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 2	vs LAL	L104–105WU
Mar 4	vs IND	L126–128LO
Mar 5	vs UTAH	W120–117LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

ATL 16–6 ORLATL leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · ATL has won the last 5 meetings · ATL 13-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 21, 2026-27	ATL 132 @ ORL 125	ORL -2.5	ATL W
Apr 1, 2025-26	ATL 130 @ ORL 101	ORL +2.5	ATL W
Mar 16, 2025-26	ORL 112 @ ATL 124	ATL -3.5	ATL W
Nov 4, 2025-26	ORL 112 @ ATL 127	ATL +3.5	ATL W
Oct 24, 2025-26	ATL 111 @ ORL 107	ORL -5.5	ATL W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Magic

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsATL	L 125-132	-2.5	L −9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	vsMIN	L 93-115	-1.5	L −23.5	234.5	U 208
Oct 25	@NY	W 111-102	+6.5	W +15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 28	@TOR	L 99-129	+5.5	L −24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	@TOR	W 121-114	+5.5	W +12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	vsBOS	L 97-108	+6.5	L −4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

−9.5

MIN

L 93-115

−23.5

W 111-102

+15.5

TOR

L 99-129

−24.5

TOR

W 121-114

+12.5

BOS

L 97-108

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ATL

L 125-132

+23.5

MIN

L 93-115

−26.5

W 111-102

−11.5

TOR

L 99-129

+3.5

TOR

W 121-114

+8.5

BOS

L 97-108

−16.5

over 3under 3avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 2, Magic 1, even 2

HawksBetterMagic

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

Even

G D. Bane17.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 62

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLBig

G J. Richardson5.3 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 3

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

ORLSmall

F F. Wagner19.7 pts · 6.7 reb · 7.8 ast Score 90

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

ATLBig

F T. da Silva14.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

Even

C W. Carter13.5 pts · 8.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 28

HawksBetterMagic

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

ATLSmall

ORL defense15th of 30 · -0.1

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

Even

ORL offense21st of 30 · -1.5

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

ORLBig

Frontcourt+14.7 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

ORLSmall

Bench-1.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterORL betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Magic

Guards

D. Bane35 minJ. Richardson20 minJ. Carter18 minA. Morales6 min

Forwards

F. Wagner35 minT. da Silva29 minJ. Cain15 min

Centers

W. Carter32 minG. Bitadze9 minN. Vucevic9 minC. Castleton5 min

Out

J. SuggsOutP. BancheroOutA. BlackOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

ORL107.7 #26

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

ORL1.07 #21

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

ORL101.9 #22

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

ORL53.4 #15

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

ORL35.4 #11

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

ORL46.5 #6

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

ORL31.7 #9

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

ORL17.0 #24

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

ORL23.4 #26

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

ORL26.3 #16

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

ORL116.7 #22

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

ORL1.13 #24

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

ORL53.0 #13

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

ORL34.6 #13

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

ORL13.6 #26

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

ORL68.9 #26

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

ORL7.0 #26

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

ORL4.2 #23

ATL		ORL
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	107.7 #26
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.07 #21
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	101.9 #22
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	53.4 #15
32.8 #22	3-point %	35.4 #11
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	46.5 #6
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	31.7 #9
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	17.0 #24
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	23.4 #26
30.7 #1	Assists per game	26.3 #16
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	116.7 #22
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #24
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	53.0 #13
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #13
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	13.6 #26
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	68.9 #26
9.4 #8	Steals per game	7.0 #26
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	4.2 #23

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Magic

2-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Celtics97–108
W@ Raptors121–114
L@ Raptors99–129
W@ Knicks111–102
Lvs Timberwolves93–115

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Magic

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Magic

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Magic