Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Feb 28, 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Bucks and Knicks
MIL	This season	NY
1-5	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	1-5
5-1	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 120–104 · win probability NY 87%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 224.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

MIL 0, NY 5 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

MIL offense vs NY defense

Offense 26th of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 104 possessions: MIL plays 106.2 a game (4th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

MIL has played the 23rd-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NYSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MIL 29.7%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: MIL 74.2%, NY 78.7%

NYSmall

NY offense vs MIL defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 28th, on the model’s ratings

NYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: MIL 23.9, NY 24.5. Allowed: MIL 29.7, NY 25.9

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, MIL 0-2 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: MIL 2-3 ATS, margin -13.4; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MIL 15.8%, NY 15.2%. Forced: MIL 12.2%, NY 13.2%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: MIL 52.0 and allows 55.4; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Even

Three-pointers

MIL hits 33.9% and allows 34.9%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 45.9% and 43.2% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MIL 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: MIL 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIL LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: MIL away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIL OOUOO	5-1	83%	1-5
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILlast 6	1-5 17%	2-4 33%	5-1 83%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bucks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 2	vs DET	L111–137LO
Mar 3	vs UTAH	L96–128LU
Mar 5	@ NO	W139–118WO

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 2	vs MEM	W130–119LO
Mar 4	@ DAL	L97–114LU
Mar 7	@ SA	W94–90WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

MIL 10–8 NYMIL leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · NY has won the last 2 meetings · MIL 8-9-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 27, 2025-26	NY 127 @ MIL 98	MIL +8.5	NY W
Nov 28, 2025-26	MIL 109 @ NY 118	NY -7.5	NY W
Oct 28, 2025-26	NY 111 @ MIL 121	MIL +2.5	MIL W
Mar 28, 2024-25	NY 116 @ MIL 107	MIL -1.5	NY W
Jan 12, 2024-25	MIL 106 @ NY 140	NY -5.5	NY W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucks

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@WSH	L 116-128	+4.5	L −7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsCHI	L 125-132	-1.5	L −8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	@PHI	L 116-127	+12.5	W +1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 26	vsIND	W 110-102	+3.5	W +11.5	239.5	U 212
Oct 28	vsHOU	L 100-132	+8.5	L −23.5	226.5	O 232
Oct 31	vsCLE	L 111-136	+8.5	L −16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

−7.5

CHI

L 125-132

−8.5

PHI

L 116-127

+1.5

IND

W 110-102

+11.5

HOU

L 100-132

−23.5

CLE

L 111-136

−16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSH

L 116-128

+4.5

CHI

L 125-132

+15.5

PHI

L 116-127

+8.5

IND

W 110-102

−27.5

HOU

L 100-132

+5.5

CLE

L 111-136

+12.5

over 5under 1avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: Bucks 0, Knicks 5, even 0

BucksBetterKnicks

G T. Herro22 pts · 4.8 reb · 4.2 ast Score 6

NYBig

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G R. Rollins11.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.7 ast Score 2

NYBig

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

F J. Jaquez16.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 3 ast Score 51

NYSmall

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F K. Kuzma11.3 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.8 ast Score 31

NYBig

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

C M. Turner7.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 56

NYSmall

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

BucksBetterKnicks

MIL offense26th of 30 · -2.9

NYBig

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

MIL defense28th of 30 · -6.0

NYSmall

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt-20.2 · 2 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+5.0 · 3 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench-0.7 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMIL betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bucks

Guards

T. Herro30 minR. Rollins26 minK. Porter33 minK. Jakucionis23 minG. Trent21 minA. Green19 min

Forwards

J. Jaquez28 minK. Kuzma27 minN. Ament16 minO. Dieng12 minB. Markovic5 min

Centers

M. Turner26 minJ. Sims20 minK. Ware20 min

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MIL113.0 #17

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

MIL1.07 #20

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

MIL106.2 #4

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

MIL52.0 #21

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

MIL33.9 #21

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

MIL45.9 #8

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

MIL23.9 #25

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

MIL15.8 #18

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

MIL29.7 #8

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

MIL26.0 #20

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

MIL126.2 #28

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

MIL1.18 #28

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

MIL55.4 #24

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

MIL34.9 #14

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

MIL12.2 #30

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

MIL74.2 #10

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

MIL5.7 #30

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

MIL4.0 #27

NY4.0 #28

MIL		NY
Scoring
113.0 #17	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.07 #20	Points per possession	1.05 #24
106.2 #4	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
52.0 #21	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
33.9 #21	3-point %	35.2 #13
45.9 #8	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
23.9 #25	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
15.8 #18	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
29.7 #8	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
26.0 #20	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
126.2 #28	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.18 #28	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
55.4 #24	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
34.9 #14	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
12.2 #30	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
74.2 #10	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
5.7 #30	Steals per game	7.3 #23
4.0 #27	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bucks

1-5 overall · 1-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Cavaliers111–136
Lvs Rockets100–132
Wvs Pacers110–102
L@ 76ers116–127
Lvs Bulls125–132

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

Bucks @ Knicks

What could decide it: NY has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Bucks

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Bucks

Knicks