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NBA · Sun, Feb 28

Heat @ Rockets

Toyota Center (Houston) · at Rockets
#18MIAHeat
@
#1HOURockets
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MIAThis seasonHOU
2-4Record6-1
2-4ATS6-1
3-3O/U5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOU 121–111 · win probability HOU 77%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 232.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOU has more of the edges

MIA 0, HOU 7 · 2026-27 so far
HOUBig
Three-pointers
MIA hits 34.1% and allows 40.6%; HOU hits 39.0% and allows 30.2%. Threes are 41.7% and 38.1% of their shots
HOUBig
HOU offense vs MIA defense
Offense 6th of 30 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
HOUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: MIA 54.6 and allows 56.8; HOU 56.6 and allows 52.1
HOUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MIA 24.5%, HOU 32.4%. Defensive: MIA 72.3%, HOU 73.2%
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: MIA plays 106.2 a game (5th fastest), HOU 101.6 (24th). Faster games mean more points
HOUSmall
Recent form
Last 5: MIA 2-3 ATS, margin +1.2; HOU 4-1 ATS, margin +13.0
HOUSmall
Home court
HOU at home. This season: HOU 3-0 at home, MIA 1-1 away
HOUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MIA 27.3, HOU 31.9. Allowed: MIA 23.2, HOU 24.7
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MIA 14.1%, HOU 15.1%. Forced: MIA 15.4%, HOU 15.7%
Even
MIA offense vs HOU defense
Offense 1st of 30 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MIA has played the 11th-hardest schedule, HOU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MIA 100%, HOU 100%. Transfers in: MIA 0, HOU 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market vs model

The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelHOU -10.3
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model232.4
Model edge—
Projected score
MIA 111.1 · HOU 121.3
Win probability
HOU 77%
1st half
Spread
HOU -5.6
Total
116.2
Projected score
MIA 55.3 · HOU 60.9
Model edge = where the model differs from the market, in points: a reason to look, not a trend. The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. Model record › · 1st-half slate ›

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Rockets has the better starters

Position by position: Heat 0, Rockets 3, even 2
HeatBetterRockets
G D. Mitchell16.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 8.2 ast Score 48
Even
G A. Thompson16.3 pts · 6.6 reb · 3.7 ast Score 60
G K. Thompson10.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 20
HOUBig
G F. VanVleet13 pts · 4 reb · 6.4 ast Score 94
F G. Antetokounmpo28.2 pts · 12.3 reb · 5.5 ast Score 89
Even
F J. Smith19 pts · 5.9 reb · 2.7 ast Score 79
F A. Wiggins10.8 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 62
HOUSmall
F K. Durant22 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.3 ast Score 82
C B. Adebayo16.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
HOUSmall
C A. Sengun22.8 pts · 9 reb · 7.4 ast Score 84
HeatBetterRockets
MIA offense1st of 30 · +4.9
Even
HOU defense4th of 30 · +5.2
MIA defense26th of 30 · -5.2
HOUBig
HOU offense6th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+0.0 · 2 players
HOUBig
Backcourt+19.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+23.1 · 3 players
HOUBig
Frontcourt+30.0 · 3 players
Bench-1.8 · 5 players
HOUBig
Bench+16.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMIA betterHOU betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Heat
Guards
D. Mitchell34 minK. Thompson21 minP. Larsson30 minD. Smith10 minR. Conwell4 min
Forwards
G. Antetokounmpo32 minA. Wiggins27 minB. Portis23 minS. Fontecchio17 minN. Jovic13 minM. Gardner9 min
Centers
B. Adebayo32 minN. Richards15 min
Out
T. HardawayDay-To-Day
Rockets
Guards
A. Thompson34 minF. VanVleet31 minM. Smart25 minB. Bogdanovic15 minS. Pedulla4 minB. Thornton3 min
Forwards
J. Smith34 minK. Durant34 minT. Eason24 minJ. Tate9 minI. Crawford7 min
Centers
A. Sengun34 minO. Tshiebwe17 min
Out
S. AdamsOutC. CapelaDay-To-DayR. SheppardDay-To-Day
In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MIAHOU
Scoring
118.3 #9Points per game120.7 #3
1.11 #14Points per possession1.20 #1
106.2 #5Pace (possessions)101.6 #24
Shooting
54.6 #12Effective FG%56.6 #3
34.1 #193-point %39.0 #3
41.7 #203-point attempt rate38.1 #26
27.3 #19Free throw rate31.9 #8
Possessions
14.1 #5Turnover rate15.1 #13
24.5 #24Offensive rebound rate32.4 #3
28.8 #3Assists per game28.1 #5
Defense
121.5 #26Points allowed108.3 #7
1.15 #26Points allowed per possession1.06 #8
56.8 #27Opponent effective FG%52.1 #10
40.6 #29Opponent 3-point %30.2 #4
15.4 #18Turnovers forced15.7 #16
72.3 #17Defensive rebound rate73.2 #14
8.3 #19Steals per game9.7 #6
5.0 #13Blocks per game5.9 #8
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Heat

2-4 overall · 2-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Pacers145–125
  • W@ Hawks129–117
  • Lvs Mavericks109–113
  • L@ Hornets110–115
  • Lvs Pistons111–128

A week or more of rest.

Rockets

6-1 overall · 3-1 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27
  • Wvs Thunder119–98
  • L@ Mavericks111–116
  • W@ Bucks132–100
  • Wvs Hawks120–110
  • W@ Hawks121–114

A week or more of rest.