Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Feb 26, 7:30 PM ETScotiabank Arena · at Raptors · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Hawks and Raptors
ATL	This season	TOR
3-4	Record	3-3
3-4	ATS	3-3
4-3	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOR 117–112 · win probability TOR 63%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 229.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

ATL 1, TOR 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

ATL has played the 9th-hardest schedule, TOR the 21st. A record against a soft schedule means less

TORBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ATL 27.1%, TOR 32.6%. Defensive: ATL 70.9%, TOR 73.4%

ATLSmall

Three-pointers

ATL hits 32.8% and allows 31.9%; TOR hits 32.0% and allows 36.7%. Threes are 44.7% and 38.1% of their shots

TORSmall

Home court

TOR at home. This season: TOR 2-1 at home, ATL 2-2 away

TORSmall

TOR offense vs ATL defense

Offense 14th of 30 against a defense 18th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: ATL 1-4 ATS, margin -9.6; TOR 2-3 ATS, margin +0.8

Even

ATL offense vs TOR defense

Offense 7th of 30 against a defense 9th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ATL 23.4, TOR 27.7. Allowed: ATL 32.1, TOR 41.5

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: ATL 52.6 and allows 54.5; TOR 51.0 and allows 53.4

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ATL 13.8%, TOR 13.5%. Forced: ATL 18.3%, TOR 20.8%

Context

Tempo

About 106 possessions: ATL plays 105.6 a game (7th fastest), TOR 105.5 (8th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ATL 100%, TOR 100%. Transfers in: ATL 0, TOR 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—
TOR WLWLL	3-3	50%	2-1	—

Venue/role: ATL away; TOR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL OOOUU	4-3	57%	3-4
TOR UUOOO	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	4-3 57%
TORlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Hawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	@ ORL	W132–125WO
Mar 3	vs CHI	L123–126LU
Mar 4	vs MEM	W146–107WO

Raptors

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	@ IND	W122–104WU
Mar 2	@ MIA	W128–114WO
Mar 3	@ MIA	W128–114WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 18 since 2021-22

ATL 6–12 TORTOR leads · 18 games since 2021-22 · TOR has won the last 6 meetings · ATL 4-14 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 5, 2025-26	ATL 100 @ TOR 118	TOR -2.5	TOR W
Jan 3, 2025-26	ATL 117 @ TOR 134	TOR -5.5	TOR W
Nov 7, 2025-26	TOR 109 @ ATL 97	ATL -2.5	TOR W
Oct 22, 2025-26	TOR 138 @ ATL 118	ATL -5.5	TOR W
Jan 25, 2024-25	TOR 117 @ ATL 94	ATL -5.5	TOR W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Hawks

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

O U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@ORL	W 132-125	+2.5	W +9.5	233.5	O 257
Oct 23	@CHA	W 128-81	-2.5	W +44.5	226.5	U 209
Oct 24	vsHOU	L 114-121	+1.5	L −5.5	227.5	O 235
Oct 26	@HOU	L 110-120	+4.5	L −5.5	228.5	O 230
Oct 28	vsMIA	L 117-129	-2.5	L −14.5	243.5	O 246
Oct 29	vsCLE	W 114-111	-1.5	W +1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@NO	L 99-121	-5.5	L −27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+9.5

CHA

W 128-81

+44.5

HOU

L 114-121

−5.5

HOU

L 110-120

−5.5

MIA

L 117-129

−14.5

CLE

W 114-111

+1.5

L 99-121

−27.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORL

W 132-125

+23.5

CHA

W 128-81

−17.5

HOU

L 114-121

+7.5

HOU

L 110-120

+1.5

MIA

L 117-129

+2.5

CLE

W 114-111

−12.5

L 99-121

−19.5

over 4under 3avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Raptors

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHI	W 135-92	-10.5	W +32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@WSH	W 112-102	-9.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 25	@MIN	L 94-117	+3.5	L −19.5	228.5	U 211
Oct 28	vsORL	W 129-99	-5.5	W +24.5	224.5	O 228
Oct 30	vsORL	L 114-121	-5.5	L −12.5	226.5	O 235
Nov 1	@LAL	L 125-131	+3.5	L −2.5	224.5	O 256

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

+32.5

WSH

W 112-102

+0.5

MIN

L 94-117

−19.5

ORL

W 129-99

+24.5

ORL

L 114-121

−12.5

LAL

L 125-131

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHI

W 135-92

−10.5

WSH

W 112-102

−22.5

MIN

L 94-117

−17.5

ORL

W 129-99

+3.5

ORL

L 114-121

+8.5

LAL

L 125-131

+31.5

over 3under 3avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hawks has the better starters

Position by position: Hawks 2, Raptors 1, even 2

HawksBetterRaptors

G N. Alexander-Walker19.3 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 67

ATLSmall

G I. Quickley16.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.2 ast Score 33

G D. Daniels10.3 pts · 5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 87

ATLSmall

G J. Walter12.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 64

G C. McCollum14.4 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59

Even

F S. Barnes24.8 pts · 6.7 reb · 4.5 ast Score 68

G A. Wiggins14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 78

Even

F R. Barrett19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 88

F O. Okongwu11.9 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 30

TORSmall

F T. Jackson-Davis3.8 pts · 3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 52

HawksBetterRaptors

ATL offense7th of 30 · +2.5

Even

TOR defense9th of 30 · +3.1

ATL defense18th of 30 · -0.6

Even

TOR offense14th of 30 · +0.9

Backcourt+27.7 · 4 players

ATLBig

Backcourt+4.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 1 player

TORBig

Frontcourt+19.0 · 3 players

Bench-4.0 · 5 players

TORBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestATL betterTOR betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Hawks

Guards

N. Alexander-Walker30 minD. Daniels29 minC. McCollum26 minA. Wiggins26 minL. Dort24 min

Forwards

O. Okongwu28 minC. Kispert18 minD. Finney-Smith16 minA. Newell11 minZ. Ejiofor5 min

Out

J. LandaleOutJ. JohnsonDay-To-DayK. FlemingsSuspension

Raptors

Guards

I. Quickley31 minJ. Walter29 minJ. Shead22 minA. Martin7 minJ. Bradley4 min

Forwards

S. Barnes33 minR. Barrett32 minT. Jackson-Davis8 minC. Murray-Boyles19 minK. Anderson18 minJ. Battle15 min

Out

J. PoeltlDay-To-DayK. LeonardOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ATL116.3 #13

TOR118.2 #10

Points per possession

ATL1.10 #16

TOR1.11 #13

Pace (possessions)

ATL105.6 #7

TOR105.5 #8

Shooting

Effective FG%

ATL52.6 #19

TOR51.0 #22

3-point %

ATL32.8 #22

TOR32.0 #24

3-point attempt rate

ATL44.7 #11

TOR38.1 #25

Free throw rate

ATL23.4 #26

TOR27.7 #18

Possessions

Turnover rate

ATL13.8 #4

TOR13.5 #3

Offensive rebound rate

ATL27.1 #18

TOR32.6 #2

Assists per game

ATL30.7 #1

TOR29.2 #2

Defense

Points allowed

ATL115.4 #19

TOR110.3 #13

Points allowed per possession

ATL1.10 #17

TOR1.05 #5

Opponent effective FG%

ATL54.5 #22

TOR53.4 #16

Opponent 3-point %

ATL31.9 #7

TOR36.7 #21

Turnovers forced

ATL18.3 #2

TOR20.8 #1

Defensive rebound rate

ATL70.9 #19

TOR73.4 #13

Steals per game

ATL9.4 #8

TOR12.7 #2

Blocks per game

ATL3.7 #29

TOR4.3 #19

ATL		TOR
Scoring
116.3 #13	Points per game	118.2 #10
1.10 #16	Points per possession	1.11 #13
105.6 #7	Pace (possessions)	105.5 #8
Shooting
52.6 #19	Effective FG%	51.0 #22
32.8 #22	3-point %	32.0 #24
44.7 #11	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #25
23.4 #26	Free throw rate	27.7 #18
Possessions
13.8 #4	Turnover rate	13.5 #3
27.1 #18	Offensive rebound rate	32.6 #2
30.7 #1	Assists per game	29.2 #2
Defense
115.4 #19	Points allowed	110.3 #13
1.10 #17	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #5
54.5 #22	Opponent effective FG%	53.4 #16
31.9 #7	Opponent 3-point %	36.7 #21
18.3 #2	Turnovers forced	20.8 #1
70.9 #19	Defensive rebound rate	73.4 #13
9.4 #8	Steals per game	12.7 #2
3.7 #29	Blocks per game	4.3 #19

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hawks

3-4 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Pelicans99–121
Wvs Cavaliers114–111
Lvs Heat117–129
L@ Rockets110–120
Lvs Rockets114–121

A week or more of rest.

Raptors

3-3 overall · 3-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Lakers125–131
Lvs Magic114–121
Wvs Magic129–99
L@ Timberwolves94–117
W@ Wizards112–102

A week or more of rest.

Hawks @ Raptors

What could decide it: TOR has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Hawks

Raptors

Hawks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Hawks

Raptors