Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Feb 26, 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · at Celtics · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Cavaliers and Celtics
CLE	This season	BOS
4-2	Record	5-1
2-4	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BOS 116–111 · win probability BOS 64%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 226.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

CLE 2, BOS 3 · 2026-27 so far

BOSSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLE 14.2%, BOS 14.9%. Forced: CLE 14.1%, BOS 17.8%

CLESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLE 28.9, BOS 32.3. Allowed: CLE 23.2, BOS 31.7

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: CLE plays 106.2 a game (3rd fastest), BOS 103.0 (16th). Faster games mean more points

BOSSmall

BOS offense vs CLE defense

Offense 15th of 30 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings

BOSSmall

Home court

BOS at home. This season: BOS 4-0 at home, CLE 1-2 away

CLESmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLE 26.7%, BOS 28.3%. Defensive: CLE 73.9%, BOS 68.4%

Even

CLE offense vs BOS defense

Offense 2nd of 30 against a defense 5th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Recent form

Last 5: CLE 2-3 ATS, margin +7.6; BOS 3-2 ATS, margin +13.0

Even

Three-pointers

CLE hits 37.0% and allows 33.7%; BOS hits 35.5% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 43.6% and 45.9% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

CLE has played the 24th-hardest schedule, BOS the 25th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLE 55.3 and allows 52.5; BOS 55.0 and allows 51.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLE 100%, BOS 100%. Transfers in: CLE 0, BOS 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LLWLW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
BOS WWLLW	3-3	50%	2-2	—

Venue/role: CLE away; BOS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUUO	3-3	50%	4-2
BOS UUOUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 6	4-2 67%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%
BOSlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cavaliers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 1	vs PHI	L106–114LU
Mar 4	vs POR	W130–111WO
Mar 6	vs ATL	L111–114LU

Celtics

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	@ MIN	L92–102LU
Mar 2	@ IND	W119–104WU
Mar 5	@ DET	L113–121LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 22 since 2021-22

CLE 8–14 BOSBOS leads · 22 games since 2021-22 · BOS has won the last 3 meetings · CLE 13-9 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2025-26	BOS 109 @ CLE 98	CLE -1.5	BOS W
Nov 30, 2025-26	BOS 117 @ CLE 115	CLE -7.5	BOS W
Oct 29, 2025-26	CLE 105 @ BOS 125	BOS +3.5	BOS W
Feb 28, 2024-25	CLE 123 @ BOS 116	BOS -0.5	CLE W
Feb 4, 2024-25	BOS 112 @ CLE 105	CLE -1.5	BOS W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Cavaliers

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 22	@PHI	L 106-114	+2.5	L −5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsBKN	W 125-121	-11.5	L −7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 26	vsMIN	W 127-125	-3.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 28	vsWSH	W 121-111	-9.5	W +0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 29	@ATL	L 111-114	+1.5	L −1.5	237.5	U 225
Oct 31	@MIL	W 136-111	-8.5	W +16.5	234.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−5.5

BKN

W 125-121

−7.5

MIN

W 127-125

−1.5

WSH

W 121-111

+0.5

ATL

L 111-114

−1.5

MIL

W 136-111

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 106-114

−17.5

BKN

W 125-121

+17.5

MIN

W 127-125

+17.5

WSH

W 121-111

−8.5

ATL

L 111-114

−12.5

MIL

W 136-111

+12.5

over 3under 3avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Celtics

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@DET	L 113-121	-1.5	L −9.5	220.5	O 234
Oct 23	vsNY	W 107-103	-2.5	W +1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 26	vsCHI	W 134-99	-14.5	W +20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 27	vsBKN	W 125-124	-13.5	L −12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsCHI	W 125-111	-14.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 236
Nov 1	@ORL	W 108-97	-6.5	W +4.5	221.5	U 205

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DET

L 113-121

−9.5

W 107-103

+1.5

CHI

W 134-99

+20.5

BKN

W 125-124

−12.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DET

L 113-121

+13.5

W 107-103

−10.5

CHI

W 134-99

−0.5

BKN

W 125-124

+25.5

CHI

W 125-111

−0.5

ORL

W 108-97

−16.5

over 2under 4avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Celtics has the better starters

Position by position: Cavaliers 1, Celtics 2, even 2

CavaliersBetterCeltics

G J. Harden16.7 pts · 4.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 53

BOSSmall

G D. White11.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 87

G D. Mitchell22.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 86

Even

G J. Walsh4.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 1 ast Score 74

G S. Merrill8.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 90

Even

F J. Tatum28.3 pts · 6 reb · 7.7 ast Score 86

C E. Mobley19.7 pts · 8.2 reb · 3.5 ast Score 30

BOSBig

F P. George20.7 pts · 6 reb · 5 ast Score 66

C J. Allen15.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 100

CLEBig

C N. Queta8.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

CavaliersBetterCeltics

CLE offense2nd of 30 · +4.0

Even

BOS defense5th of 30 · +4.6

CLE defense20th of 30 · -1.2

BOSSmall

BOS offense15th of 30 · +0.8

Backcourt+25.3 · 3 players

CLEBig

Backcourt+15.6 · 2 players

Frontcourt+17.9 · 2 players

BOSBig

Frontcourt+21.5 · 3 players

Bench+4.1 · 5 players

BOSBig

Bench+32.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestCLE betterBOS betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Cavaliers

Guards

J. Harden34 minD. Mitchell33 minS. Merrill24 minM. Thomas21 minT. Proctor12 minC. Porter8 min

Forwards

M. Hezonja18 minT. Enaruna10 minR. Minix7 min

Centers

E. Mobley33 minJ. Allen28 minT. Bryant11 minE. UdehNew

Out

P. WatsonDay-To-DayJ. TysonOut

Celtics

Guards

D. White30 minJ. Walsh17 minP. Pritchard28 minB. Scheierman19 minM. Conley18 minH. Gonzalez12 min

Forwards

J. Tatum36 minP. George31 minS. Hauser20 minA. Williams7 minC. Cenac4 min

Centers

N. Queta21 minL. Garza11 min

Out

M. RobinsonDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLE121.0 #2

BOS118.7 #8

Points per possession

CLE1.14 #7

BOS1.15 #6

Pace (possessions)

CLE106.2 #3

BOS103.0 #16

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLE55.3 #7

BOS55.0 #10

3-point %

CLE37.0 #8

BOS35.5 #10

3-point attempt rate

CLE43.6 #12

BOS45.9 #7

Free throw rate

CLE28.9 #13

BOS32.3 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLE14.2 #6

BOS14.9 #11

Offensive rebound rate

CLE26.7 #20

BOS28.3 #12

Assists per game

CLE28.7 #4

BOS28.0 #6

Defense

Points allowed

CLE116.0 #20

BOS109.2 #9

Points allowed per possession

CLE1.09 #14

BOS1.06 #9

Opponent effective FG%

CLE52.5 #12

BOS51.3 #7

Opponent 3-point %

CLE33.7 #11

BOS33.8 #12

Turnovers forced

CLE14.1 #25

BOS17.8 #3

Defensive rebound rate

CLE73.9 #11

BOS68.4 #27

Steals per game

CLE7.8 #22

BOS9.2 #9

Blocks per game

CLE6.3 #6

BOS4.0 #25

CLE		BOS
Scoring
121.0 #2	Points per game	118.7 #8
1.14 #7	Points per possession	1.15 #6
106.2 #3	Pace (possessions)	103.0 #16
Shooting
55.3 #7	Effective FG%	55.0 #10
37.0 #8	3-point %	35.5 #10
43.6 #12	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #7
28.9 #13	Free throw rate	32.3 #7
Possessions
14.2 #6	Turnover rate	14.9 #11
26.7 #20	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #12
28.7 #4	Assists per game	28.0 #6
Defense
116.0 #20	Points allowed	109.2 #9
1.09 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #9
52.5 #12	Opponent effective FG%	51.3 #7
33.7 #11	Opponent 3-point %	33.8 #12
14.1 #25	Turnovers forced	17.8 #3
73.9 #11	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #27
7.8 #22	Steals per game	9.2 #9
6.3 #6	Blocks per game	4.0 #25

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Cavaliers

4-2 overall · 3-2 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Bucks136–111
L@ Hawks111–114
Wvs Wizards121–111
Wvs Timberwolves127–125
Wvs Nets125–121

A week or more of rest.

Celtics

5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Magic108–97
Wvs Bulls125–111
Wvs Nets125–124
Wvs Bulls134–99
Wvs Knicks107–103

A week or more of rest.

Cavaliers @ Celtics

What could decide it: BOS has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Cavaliers

Celtics

Celtics has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Cavaliers

Celtics