Moody Center · at Spurs · Conference game
LineNo line yet
Total—
 MEM | This season | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 4-2 |
| 6-0 | ATS | 2-4 |
| 2-4 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects SA 120–109 · win probability SA 80%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 229.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: SA has more of the edges
MEM 4, SA 5 · 2026-27 so far
MEMBigThree-pointers
MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%; SA hits 34.9% and allows 37.3%. Threes are 42.1% and 39.0% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
MEM has played the 30th-hardest schedule, SA the 15th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MEMBigShooting
Effective FG%: MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2; SA 53.3 and allows 52.1
SABigFree throws
Free throw rate: MEM 25.3, SA 24.5. Allowed: MEM 31.4, SA 21.7
MEMBigRecent form
Last 5: MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2; SA 2-3 ATS, margin +11.0
SASmallSA offense vs MEM defense
Offense 5th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
SASmallTurnovers
Turnover rate: MEM 15.4%, SA 13.1%. Forced: MEM 15.7%, SA 15.7%
MEMSmallRebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MEM 30.6%, SA 27.2%. Defensive: MEM 75.0%, SA 75.8%
SASmallHome court
SA at home. This season: SA 2-2 at home, MEM 4-0 away
SASmallMEM offense vs SA defense
Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 7th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 104 possessions: MEM plays 103.6 a game (13th fastest), SA 104.3 (11th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MEM 100%, SA 100%. Transfers in: MEM 0, SA 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelSA -11.8
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model229.0
Model edge—
Projected score
MEM 108.6 · SA 120.4
Win probability
SA 80%
1st half
Spread
SA -6.5
Total
114.7
Projected score
MEM 54.1 · SA 60.6
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEMlast 6 | 6-0 100% | 6-0 100% | 2-4 33% |
| SAlast 6 | 4-2 67% | 2-4 33% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 20 since 2021-22
MEM 15–5 SAMEM leads · 20 games since 2021-22 · MEM 9-11 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025-26 | SA 123 @ MEM 98 | MEM +16.5 | SA W |
| Jan 6, 2025-26 | SA 105 @ MEM 106 | MEM +5.5 | MEM W |
| Dec 2, 2025-26 | MEM 119 @ SA 126 | SA -5.5 | SA W |
| Nov 18, 2025-26 | MEM 101 @ SA 111 | SA -6.5 | SA W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | SA 130 @ MEM 128 | MEM -5.5 | SA W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Grizzlies
6 games played
Straight up
6-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-0
100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
21
vs
UTAH
UTAHW 123-103
+18.5
23
@
GS
GSW 111-108
+7.5
25
@
SAC
SACW 123-112
+7.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
+3.5
29
@
POR
PORW 124-103
+28.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+23.5
covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
21
vsUTAH
UTAHW 123-103
−14.5
23
@GS
GSW 111-108
−17.5
25
@SAC
SACW 123-112
+0.5
26
@UTAH
UTAHW 110-105
−22.5
29
@POR
PORW 124-103
−6.5
31
vsSAC
SACW 136-105
+11.5
over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Spurs
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
OKC
OKCL 104-116
−10.5
23
vs
HOU
HOUL 110-114
−8.5
24
@
DAL
DALW 122-106
+1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+7.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−7.5
31
vs
MIN
MINW 121-111
−2.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsOKC
OKCL 104-116
−9.5
23
vsHOU
HOUL 110-114
−0.5
24
@DAL
DALW 122-106
−1.5
27
vsSAC
SACW 130-103
+0.5
28
@UTAH
UTAHW 117-111
−4.5
31
vsMIN
MINW 121-111
+1.5
over 2under 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Grizzlies has the better starters
Position by position: Grizzlies 2, Spurs 1, even 2
GrizzliesBetterSpurs
G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast
Score 97
=Even
G D. Harper18.5 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.8 ast
Score 98
F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast
Score 87
←MEMSmall
G D. Vassell12 pts · 4.2 reb · 3.5 ast
Score 53
F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast
Score 33
→SABig
G D. Fox16.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 7 ast
Score 84
F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast
Score 85
←MEMSmall
G S. Castle14.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 5.2 ast
Score 69
C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast
Score 92
=Even
F V. Wembanyama28 pts · 10.7 reb · 3 ast
Score 98
GrizzliesBetterSpurs
MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3
=Even
SA defense7th of 30 · +3.7
MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1
→SASmall
SA offense5th of 30 · +2.9
Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player
→SABig
Backcourt+42.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players
←MEMBig
Frontcourt+17.3 · 1 player
Bench-18.8 · 5 players
→SABig
Bench+19.9 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMEM betterSA betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
GrizzliesGuards
T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min
Forwards
C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min
Centers
Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min
Out
S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day
SpursGuards
D. Harper34 minD. Vassell33 minD. Fox32 minS. Castle29 minJ. McLaughlin6 minJ. Gillespie2 min
Forwards
V. Wembanyama33 minJ. Champagnie28 minK. Johnson22 minC. Bryant9 minH. Barnes8 minD. Jones Garcia6 min
Centers
L. Kornet15 minT. Reed4 min
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
MEM121.2 #1SA117.3 #12Points per possession
MEM1.16 #4SA1.12 #10Pace (possessions)
MEM103.6 #13SA104.3 #11Shooting
Effective FG%
MEM55.9 #5SA53.3 #163-point %
MEM41.7 #1SA34.9 #173-point attempt rate
MEM42.1 #19SA39.0 #24Free throw rate
MEM25.3 #22SA24.5 #24Possessions
Turnover rate
MEM15.4 #16SA13.1 #2Offensive rebound rate
MEM30.6 #5SA27.2 #16Assists per game
MEM27.0 #13SA27.5 #9Defense
Points allowed
MEM106.0 #3SA110.2 #12Points allowed per possession
MEM1.03 #2SA1.06 #6Opponent effective FG%
MEM49.2 #3SA52.1 #11Opponent 3-point %
MEM30.0 #3SA37.3 #23Turnovers forced
MEM15.7 #15SA15.7 #14Defensive rebound rate
MEM75.0 #9SA75.8 #7Steals per game
MEM6.3 #28SA9.2 #10Blocks per game
MEM5.2 #11SA7.0 #1| MEM | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 121.2 #1 | Points per game | 117.3 #12 |
| 1.16 #4 | Points per possession | 1.12 #10 |
| 103.6 #13 | Pace (possessions) | 104.3 #11 |
| Shooting | ||
| 55.9 #5 | Effective FG% | 53.3 #16 |
| 41.7 #1 | 3-point % | 34.9 #17 |
| 42.1 #19 | 3-point attempt rate | 39.0 #24 |
| 25.3 #22 | Free throw rate | 24.5 #24 |
| Possessions | ||
| 15.4 #16 | Turnover rate | 13.1 #2 |
| 30.6 #5 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #16 |
| 27.0 #13 | Assists per game | 27.5 #9 |
| Defense | ||
| 106.0 #3 | Points allowed | 110.2 #12 |
| 1.03 #2 | Points allowed per possession | 1.06 #6 |
| 49.2 #3 | Opponent effective FG% | 52.1 #11 |
| 30.0 #3 | Opponent 3-point % | 37.3 #23 |
| 15.7 #15 | Turnovers forced | 15.7 #14 |
| 75.0 #9 | Defensive rebound rate | 75.8 #7 |
| 6.3 #28 | Steals per game | 9.2 #10 |
| 5.2 #11 | Blocks per game | 7.0 #1 |
Grizzlies
6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Kings136–105
- W@ Trail Blazers124–103
- W@ Jazz110–105
- W@ Kings123–112
- W@ Warriors111–108
A week or more of rest.
Spurs
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- Wvs Timberwolves121–111
- W@ Jazz117–111
- Wvs Kings130–103
- W@ Mavericks122–106
- Lvs Rockets110–114
A week or more of rest.