Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 27, 8:00 PM ETFedExForum · at Grizzlies · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Kings and Grizzlies
SAC	This season	MEM
0-6	Record	6-0
1-5	ATS	6-0
5-1	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MEM 124–112 · win probability MEM 80%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 235.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 211-223 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

SAC 0, MEM 8 · 2026-27 so far

MEMBig

Three-pointers

SAC hits 30.4% and allows 39.2%; MEM hits 41.7% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 38.0% and 42.1% of their shots

MEMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: SAC 51.0 and allows 60.4; MEM 55.9 and allows 49.2

Context

Schedule so far

SAC has played the 8th-hardest schedule, MEM the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less

MEMBig

MEM offense vs SAC defense

Offense 11th of 30 against a defense 29th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

SAC offense vs MEM defense

Offense 27th of 30 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings

MEMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SAC 22.9%, MEM 30.6%. Defensive: SAC 73.7%, MEM 75.0%

MEMBig

Recent form

Last 5: SAC 1-4 ATS, margin -17.8; MEM 5-0 ATS, margin +14.2

MEMSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SAC 15.9%, MEM 15.4%. Forced: SAC 14.6%, MEM 15.7%

MEMSmall

Home court

MEM at home. This season: MEM 2-0 at home, SAC 0-4 away

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: SAC plays 106.0 a game (6th fastest), MEM 103.6 (13th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SAC 26.4, MEM 25.3. Allowed: SAC 31.2, MEM 31.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SAC 100%, MEM 100%. Transfers in: SAC 0, MEM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	—
MEM WWWWW	6-0	100%	2-0	—

Venue/role: SAC away; MEM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OOOOO	5-1	83%	0-6
MEM UOUUO	2-4	33%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	5-1 83%
MEMlast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	@ CHA	L90–134LU
Mar 2	vs WSH	L112–116LO
Mar 4	vs OKC	L99–113WU

Grizzlies

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 2	@ NY	L119–130WO
Mar 4	@ ATL	L107–146LO
Mar 6	vs NO	L106–114LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 19 since 2021-22

SAC 8–11 MEMMEM leads · 19 games since 2021-22 · MEM has won the last 2 meetings · SAC 6-13 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 31, 2026-27	SAC 105 @ MEM 136	MEM -7.5	MEM W
Oct 25, 2026-27	MEM 123 @ SAC 112	SAC +3.5	MEM W
Feb 23, 2025-26	SAC 123 @ MEM 114	MEM -2.5	SAC W
Feb 4, 2025-26	MEM 129 @ SAC 125	SAC -2.5	MEM W
Nov 30, 2025-26	MEM 115 @ SAC 107	SAC +3.5	MEM W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kings

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −10.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +6.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-183%

U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@LAC	L 96-121	+5.5	L −19.5	226.5	U 217
Oct 23	vsPOR	L 120-128	+9.5	W +1.5	231.5	O 248
Oct 25	vsMEM	L 112-123	+3.5	L −7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 27	@SA	L 103-130	+19.5	L −7.5	232.5	O 233
Oct 29	@NO	L 120-132	+6.5	L −5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	@MEM	L 105-136	+7.5	L −23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−19.5

POR

L 120-128

+1.5

MEM

L 112-123

−7.5

L 103-130

−7.5

L 120-132

−5.5

MEM

L 105-136

−23.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAC

L 96-121

−9.5

POR

L 120-128

+16.5

MEM

L 112-123

+0.5

L 103-130

+0.5

L 120-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-136

+11.5

over 5under 1avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Grizzlies

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +14.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −8.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsUTAH	W 123-103	-1.5	W +18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	@GS	W 111-108	+4.5	W +7.5	236.5	U 219
Oct 25	@SAC	W 123-112	-3.5	W +7.5	234.5	O 235
Oct 26	@UTAH	W 110-105	-1.5	W +3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 29	@POR	W 124-103	+7.5	W +28.5	233.5	U 227
Oct 31	vsSAC	W 136-105	-7.5	W +23.5	229.5	O 241

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

+18.5

W 111-108

+7.5

SAC

W 123-112

+7.5

UTAH

W 110-105

+3.5

POR

W 124-103

+28.5

SAC

W 136-105

+23.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +14.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTAH

W 123-103

−14.5

W 111-108

−17.5

SAC

W 123-112

+0.5

UTAH

W 110-105

−22.5

POR

W 124-103

−6.5

SAC

W 136-105

+11.5

over 2under 4avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Grizzlies has the better starters

Position by position: Kings 0, Grizzlies 4, even 1

KingsBetterGrizzlies

G D. Acuff26.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 6.3 ast Score 4

MEMBig

G T. Jerome25.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

F D. Sabonis16 pts · 15.8 reb · 7.3 ast Score 26

MEMBig

F C. Boozer17.7 pts · 10.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 87

F D. Hunter14 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 38

Even

F C. Coward13 pts · 8.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 33

F P. Achiuwa12.5 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast Score 7

MEMBig

F J. Wells12.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1 ast Score 85

F L. Black7.1 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 13

MEMBig

C Z. Edey7 pts · 7 reb · 1 ast Score 92

KingsBetterGrizzlies

SAC offense27th of 30 · -3.0

MEMBig

MEM defense13th of 30 · +1.1

SAC defense29th of 30 · -7.9

MEMBig

MEM offense11th of 30 · +1.3

Backcourt-13.7 · 1 player

MEMBig

Backcourt+16.5 · 1 player

Frontcourt-18.6 · 4 players

MEMBig

Frontcourt+29.5 · 4 players

Bench-13.2 · 5 players

SACBig

Bench-18.8 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSAC betterMEM betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Kings

Guards

D. Acuff37 minE. Sharp18 minD. Plowden14 minM. Monk12 minN. Clifford8 minA. FlaglerNew

Forwards

D. Sabonis37 minD. Hunter29 minP. Achiuwa29 minL. Black29 minJ. Mogbo17 minA. Karaban10 min

Out

Z. LaVineDay-To-DayK. MurrayOut

Grizzlies

Guards

T. Jerome30 minJ. Mashack22 minJ. Small21 minC. Spencer19 minW. Clayton11 min

Forwards

C. Boozer31 minC. Coward28 minJ. Wells27 minJ. Grant24 minT. Hendricks19 minO. Prosper19 min

Centers

Z. Edey20 minI. Stewart18 minC. Cooper3 min

Out

S. PippenDay-To-DayQ. PostDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SAC109.3 #22

MEM121.2 #1

Points per possession

SAC1.03 #28

MEM1.16 #4

Pace (possessions)

SAC106.0 #6

MEM103.6 #13

Shooting

Effective FG%

SAC51.0 #23

MEM55.9 #5

3-point %

SAC30.4 #27

MEM41.7 #1

3-point attempt rate

SAC38.0 #27

MEM42.1 #19

Free throw rate

SAC26.4 #20

MEM25.3 #22

Possessions

Turnover rate

SAC15.9 #19

MEM15.4 #16

Offensive rebound rate

SAC22.9 #28

MEM30.6 #5

Assists per game

SAC24.5 #23

MEM27.0 #13

Defense

Points allowed

SAC128.3 #29

MEM106.0 #3

Points allowed per possession

SAC1.21 #29

MEM1.03 #2

Opponent effective FG%

SAC60.4 #30

MEM49.2 #3

Opponent 3-point %

SAC39.2 #27

MEM30.0 #3

Turnovers forced

SAC14.6 #22

MEM15.7 #15

Defensive rebound rate

SAC73.7 #12

MEM75.0 #9

Steals per game

SAC8.0 #21

MEM6.3 #28

Blocks per game

SAC2.3 #30

MEM5.2 #11

SAC		MEM
Scoring
109.3 #22	Points per game	121.2 #1
1.03 #28	Points per possession	1.16 #4
106.0 #6	Pace (possessions)	103.6 #13
Shooting
51.0 #23	Effective FG%	55.9 #5
30.4 #27	3-point %	41.7 #1
38.0 #27	3-point attempt rate	42.1 #19
26.4 #20	Free throw rate	25.3 #22
Possessions
15.9 #19	Turnover rate	15.4 #16
22.9 #28	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #5
24.5 #23	Assists per game	27.0 #13
Defense
128.3 #29	Points allowed	106.0 #3
1.21 #29	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #2
60.4 #30	Opponent effective FG%	49.2 #3
39.2 #27	Opponent 3-point %	30.0 #3
14.6 #22	Turnovers forced	15.7 #15
73.7 #12	Defensive rebound rate	75.0 #9
8.0 #21	Steals per game	6.3 #28
2.3 #30	Blocks per game	5.2 #11

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Kings

0-6 overall · 0-6 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Grizzlies105–136
L@ Pelicans120–132
L@ Spurs103–130
Lvs Grizzlies112–123
Lvs Trail Blazers120–128

A week or more of rest.

Grizzlies

6-0 overall · 6-0 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Kings136–105
W@ Trail Blazers124–103
W@ Jazz110–105
W@ Kings123–112
W@ Warriors111–108

A week or more of rest.

Kings @ Grizzlies

What could decide it: MEM has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Kings

Grizzlies

Grizzlies has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Kings

Grizzlies