Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 27, 8:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · at Knicks · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: 76ers and Knicks
PHI	This season	NY
6-1	Record	2-4
4-3	ATS	1-5
2-5	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NY 112–105 · win probability NY 69%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 216.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

PHI 3, NY 3 · 2026-27 so far

NYBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PHI 19.9%, NY 30.3%. Defensive: PHI 70.8%, NY 78.7%

NYBig

PHI offense vs NY defense

Offense 22nd of 30 against a defense 3rd, on the model’s ratings

PHIBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PHI 12.3%, NY 15.2%. Forced: PHI 17.0%, NY 13.2%

PHIBig

NY offense vs PHI defense

Offense 23rd of 30 against a defense 10th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

PHI has played the 20th-hardest schedule, NY the 13th. A record against a soft schedule means less

PHISmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: PHI 50.8 and allows 49.8; NY 49.5 and allows 53.1

Context

Tempo

About 102 possessions: PHI plays 102.4 a game (19th fastest), NY 101.0 (28th). Faster games mean more points

NYSmall

Home court

NY at home. This season: NY 1-2 at home, PHI 3-0 away

Even

Recent form

Last 5: PHI 2-3 ATS, margin +2.6; NY 1-4 ATS, margin +0.4

Even

Three-pointers

PHI hits 34.0% and allows 32.1%; NY hits 35.2% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 39.5% and 43.2% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PHI 28.7, NY 24.5. Allowed: PHI 28.5, NY 25.9

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PHI 100%, NY 100%. Transfers in: PHI 0, NY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—
NY LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—

Venue/role: PHI away; NY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUUUO	2-5	29%	6-1
NY UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
NYlast 6	2-4 33%	1-5 17%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

76ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 1	@ CLE	W114–106WU
Mar 3	vs CHA	W109–104WO
Mar 4	vs LAL	L115–119LU

Knicks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Feb 28	vs MIL	W127–98WO
Mar 2	vs MEM	W130–119LO
Mar 4	@ DAL	L97–114LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 32 since 2021-22

PHI 11–21 NYNY leads · 32 games since 2021-22 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings · PHI 14-18 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Oct 30, 2026-27	NY 93 @ PHI 98	PHI +3.5	PHI W
Oct 20, 2026-27	PHI 106 @ NY 100	NY -4.5	PHI W
May 10, 2025-26	NY 144 @ PHI 114	PHI +1.5	NY W
May 8, 2025-26	NY 108 @ PHI 94	PHI -3.5	NY W
May 6, 2025-26	PHI 102 @ NY 108	NY -10.5	PHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

76ers

7 games played

Straight up

6-1

86% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −15.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-186%

W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	@NY	W 106-100	+4.5	W +10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 22	vsCLE	W 114-106	-2.5	W +5.5	237.5	U 220
Oct 24	vsMIL	W 127-116	-12.5	L −1.5	234.5	O 243
Oct 25	vsDET	L 93-106	+1.5	L −11.5	228.5	U 199
Oct 28	@IND	W 114-109	-7.5	L −2.5	234.5	U 223
Oct 30	vsNY	W 98-93	-2.5	W +2.5	224.5	U 191
Oct 31	@CHA	W 109-104	-1.5	W +3.5	211.5	O 213

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 106-100

+10.5

CLE

W 114-106

+5.5

MIL

W 127-116

−1.5

DET

L 93-106

−11.5

IND

W 114-109

−2.5

W 98-93

+2.5

CHA

W 109-104

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 106-100

−25.5

CLE

W 114-106

−17.5

MIL

W 127-116

+8.5

DET

L 93-106

−29.5

IND

W 114-109

−11.5

W 98-93

−33.5

CHA

W 109-104

+1.5

over 2under 5avg −15.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Knicks

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 20	vsPHI	L 100-106	-4.5	L −10.5	231.5	U 206
Oct 23	@BOS	L 103-107	+2.5	L −1.5	220.5	U 210
Oct 25	vsORL	L 102-111	-6.5	L −15.5	224.5	U 213
Oct 27	vsDET	W 111-97	-4.5	W +9.5	220.5	U 208
Oct 28	@CHI	W 133-127	-7.5	L −1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@PHI	L 93-98	+2.5	L −2.5	224.5	U 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−10.5

BOS

L 103-107

−1.5

ORL

L 102-111

−15.5

DET

W 111-97

+9.5

CHI

W 133-127

−1.5

PHI

L 93-98

−2.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PHI

L 100-106

−25.5

BOS

L 103-107

−10.5

ORL

L 102-111

−11.5

DET

W 111-97

−12.5

CHI

W 133-127

+26.5

PHI

L 93-98

−33.5

over 1under 5avg −11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Knicks has the better starters

Position by position: 76ers 1, Knicks 3, even 1

76ersBetterKnicks

G T. Maxey29.6 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 67

NYSmall

G J. Brunson25.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.2 ast Score 86

G J. Brown19.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 4.2 ast Score 35

NYBig

G J. Hart8.7 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.3 ast Score 91

G V. Edgecombe11.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 96

PHISmall

G M. Bridges6.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 75

F L. James16.4 pts · 7 reb · 7 ast Score 54

NYSmall

F O. Anunoby16.2 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 73

F D. Wade3.6 pts · 3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 90

Even

C K. Towns21.8 pts · 13.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 80

76ersBetterKnicks

PHI offense22nd of 30 · -1.7

NYBig

NY defense3rd of 30 · +5.2

PHI defense10th of 30 · +3.0

PHIBig

NY offense23rd of 30 · -1.8

Backcourt+25.4 · 3 players

NYBig

Backcourt+35.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt+14.0 · 2 players

NYBig

Frontcourt+17.7 · 2 players

Bench-19.8 · 5 players

NYBig

Bench+5.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestPHI betterNY betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

76ers

Guards

T. Maxey38 minJ. Brown37 minV. Edgecombe33 minA. Simons25 minK. Caldwell-Pope24 minC. Love21 min

Forwards

L. James33 minD. Wade28 minJ. Edwards15 minJ. Walker10 min

Centers

A. Bona14 minT. FallNew

Out

J. EmbiidDay-To-Day

Knicks

Guards

J. Brunson35 minJ. Hart33 minM. Bridges28 minL. Shamet24 minM. McBride19 minT. Kolek14 min

Forwards

O. Anunoby34 minD. Knecht10 minM. Diawara9 minP. Dadiet5 minT. NickelNew

Centers

K. Towns32 minJ. Wiseman15 minA. Drummond13 min

Out

J. AlvaradoOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PHI108.7 #23

NY107.0 #27

Points per possession

PHI1.06 #22

NY1.05 #24

Pace (possessions)

PHI102.4 #19

NY101.0 #28

Shooting

Effective FG%

PHI50.8 #25

NY49.5 #27

3-point %

PHI34.0 #20

NY35.2 #13

3-point attempt rate

PHI39.5 #23

NY43.2 #14

Free throw rate

PHI28.7 #16

NY24.5 #23

Possessions

Turnover rate

PHI12.3 #1

NY15.2 #14

Offensive rebound rate

PHI19.9 #30

NY30.3 #6

Assists per game

PHI25.1 #22

NY26.2 #18

Defense

Points allowed

PHI104.9 #2

NY107.7 #6

Points allowed per possession

PHI1.03 #3

NY1.07 #12

Opponent effective FG%

PHI49.8 #4

NY53.1 #14

Opponent 3-point %

PHI32.1 #9

NY35.5 #18

Turnovers forced

PHI17.0 #9

NY13.2 #29

Defensive rebound rate

PHI70.8 #21

NY78.7 #1

Steals per game

PHI9.6 #7

NY7.3 #23

Blocks per game

PHI5.0 #14

NY4.0 #28

PHI		NY
Scoring
108.7 #23	Points per game	107.0 #27
1.06 #22	Points per possession	1.05 #24
102.4 #19	Pace (possessions)	101.0 #28
Shooting
50.8 #25	Effective FG%	49.5 #27
34.0 #20	3-point %	35.2 #13
39.5 #23	3-point attempt rate	43.2 #14
28.7 #16	Free throw rate	24.5 #23
Possessions
12.3 #1	Turnover rate	15.2 #14
19.9 #30	Offensive rebound rate	30.3 #6
25.1 #22	Assists per game	26.2 #18
Defense
104.9 #2	Points allowed	107.7 #6
1.03 #3	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #12
49.8 #4	Opponent effective FG%	53.1 #14
32.1 #9	Opponent 3-point %	35.5 #18
17.0 #9	Turnovers forced	13.2 #29
70.8 #21	Defensive rebound rate	78.7 #1
9.6 #7	Steals per game	7.3 #23
5.0 #14	Blocks per game	4.0 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

76ers

6-1 overall · 6-1 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Hornets109–104
Wvs Knicks98–93
W@ Pacers114–109
Lvs Pistons93–106
Wvs Bucks127–116

A week or more of rest.

Knicks

2-4 overall · 2-4 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ 76ers93–98
W@ Bulls133–127
Wvs Pistons111–97
Lvs Magic102–111
L@ Celtics103–107

A week or more of rest.

76ers @ Knicks

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

76ers

Knicks

Knicks has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

76ers

Knicks