New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 27, 9:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · at Suns · Conference game

#21PHXSuns

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Pelicans and Suns
NO	This season	PHX
2-4	Record	1-3
4-2	ATS	0-4
4-2	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PHX 118–116 · win probability PHX 56%

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

NO 6, PHX 3 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

NO has played the 28th-hardest schedule, PHX the 3rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

NOBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NO 35.3, PHX 22.8. Allowed: NO 30.6, PHX 31.1

Context

Tempo

About 105 possessions: NO plays 108.0 a game (2nd fastest), PHX 101.3 (26th). Faster games mean more points

NOBig

Recent form

Last 4: NO 4-1 ATS, margin +2.8; PHX 0-4 ATS, margin -12.5

NOSmall

Three-pointers

NO hits 31.2% and allows 30.5%; PHX hits 35.0% and allows 43.9%. Threes are 32.8% and 45.1% of their shots

NOSmall

NO offense vs PHX defense

Offense 13th of 30 against a defense 21st, on the model’s ratings

PHXSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NO 17.4%, PHX 15.2%. Forced: NO 16.3%, PHX 17.1%

NOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NO 55.1 and allows 54.2; PHX 54.4 and allows 58.7

PHXSmall

PHX offense vs NO defense

Offense 19th of 30 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

NOSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NO 24.3%, PHX 28.3%. Defensive: NO 76.4%, PHX 65.1%

PHXSmall

Home court

PHX at home. This season: PHX 1-1 at home, NO 0-2 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NO 100%, PHX 100%. Transfers in: NO 0, PHX 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-0	—
PHX LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: NO away; PHX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO OOUOU	4-2	67%	2-4
PHX UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	4-2 67%
PHXlast 4	1-3 25%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pelicans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 1	vs UTAH	L119–120WO
Mar 3	@ HOU	L102–134LO
Mar 5	vs MIL	L118–139LO

Suns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 1	vs WSH	W112–93WU
Mar 3	vs BKN	W106–102LU
Mar 5	vs MIN	L104–116LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 24 since 2021-22

NO 8–16 PHXPHX leads · 24 games since 2021-22 · PHX has won the last 5 meetings · NO 9-15 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 6, 2025-26	NO 116 @ PHX 118	PHX -3.5	NO W
Dec 27, 2025-26	PHX 123 @ NO 114	NO +4.5	PHX W
Dec 26, 2025-26	PHX 115 @ NO 108	NO +5.5	PHX W
Nov 10, 2025-26	NO 98 @ PHX 121	PHX -7.5	PHX W
Feb 28, 2024-25	NO 108 @ PHX 125	PHX -9.5	PHX W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Pelicans

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsIND	L 120-123	+2.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 243
Oct 23	@UTAH	L 119-120	+1.5	W +0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 24	@DEN	L 135-141	+11.5	W +5.5	239.5	O 276
Oct 28	vsDEN	L 91-104	+4.5	L −8.5	241.5	U 195
Oct 29	vsSAC	W 132-120	-6.5	W +5.5	234.5	O 252
Oct 31	vsATL	W 121-99	+5.5	W +27.5	239.5	U 220

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IND

L 120-123

−0.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+5.5

DEN

L 91-104

−8.5

SAC

W 132-120

+5.5

ATL

W 121-99

+27.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IND

L 120-123

+4.5

UTAH

L 119-120

+0.5

DEN

L 135-141

+36.5

DEN

L 91-104

−46.5

SAC

W 132-120

+17.5

ATL

W 121-99

−19.5

over 4under 2avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Suns

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@POR	L 83-124	+3.5	L −37.5	232.5	U 207
Oct 24	vsGS	W 131-122	-9.5	L −0.5	221.5	O 253
Oct 26	@OKC	L 114-125	+8.5	L −2.5	221.5	O 239
Oct 30	vsDEN	L 120-127	+4.5	L −2.5	231.5	O 247

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−37.5

W 131-122

−0.5

OKC

L 114-125

−2.5

DEN

L 120-127

−2.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

POR

L 83-124

−25.5

W 131-122

+31.5

OKC

L 114-125

+17.5

DEN

L 120-127

+15.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pelicans has the better starters

Position by position: Pelicans 3, Suns 1, even 1

PelicansBetterSuns

G D. Murray17.8 pts · 5.8 reb · 6 ast Score 45

PHXBig

G D. Booker22.3 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92

G J. Fears13 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 19

Even

G J. Green11 pts · 2.5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 11

F Z. Williamson20.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 81

NOBig

F M. Bridges16.3 pts · 7.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 14

F H. Jones6.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 75

NOSmall

F D. Brooks16.5 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast Score 59

C D. Jordan6 pts · 6.5 reb · 1 ast Score 52

NOBig

C K. Maluach8 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 16

PelicansBetterSuns

NO offense13th of 30 · +1.1

NOSmall

PHX defense21st of 30 · -1.3

NO defense24th of 30 · -3.7

PHXSmall

PHX offense19th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt-1.6 · 2 players

PHXBig

Backcourt+10.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt+15.7 · 3 players

NOBig

Frontcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Bench-16.0 · 5 players

PHXBig

Bench+1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNO betterPHX betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Pelicans

Guards

D. Murray32 minJ. Fears25 minS. Bey25 minB. McGowens21 minB. Mathurin18 minA. Johnson10 min

Forwards

Z. Williamson32 minH. Jones21 minJ. Reese31 minT. Watford18 minK. Matkovic16 min

Centers

D. Jordan17 minD. Queen24 min

Out

J. PooleOutT. MurphyDay-To-DayY. MissiOut

Suns

Guards

D. Booker35 minJ. Green27 minC. Gillespie26 minJ. Goodwin21 minP. Spencer18 minL. Kennard15 min

Forwards

M. Bridges33 minD. Brooks29 minO. Ighodaro18 minR. Dunn13 minR. Fleming12 minC. Huntley10 min

Centers

K. Maluach22 minD. Reath8 min

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27, 4 games in · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NO119.7 #7

PHX112.0 #19

Points per possession

NO1.10 #15

PHX1.12 #12

Pace (possessions)

NO108.0 #2

PHX101.3 #26

Shooting

Effective FG%

NO55.1 #9

PHX54.4 #13

3-point %

NO31.2 #25

PHX35.0 #16

3-point attempt rate

NO32.8 #30

PHX45.1 #10

Free throw rate

NO35.3 #4

PHX22.8 #27

Possessions

Turnover rate

NO17.4 #26

PHX15.2 #15

Offensive rebound rate

NO24.3 #25

PHX28.3 #11

Assists per game

NO25.5 #21

PHX27.5 #8

Defense

Points allowed

NO117.8 #24

PHX124.5 #27

Points allowed per possession

NO1.09 #16

PHX1.21 #30

Opponent effective FG%

NO54.2 #21

PHX58.7 #29

Opponent 3-point %

NO30.5 #5

PHX43.9 #30

Turnovers forced

NO16.3 #10

PHX17.1 #7

Defensive rebound rate

NO76.4 #6

PHX65.1 #30

Steals per game

NO13.7 #1

PHX9.0 #15

Blocks per game

NO4.8 #16

PHX5.3 #10

NO		PHX
Scoring
119.7 #7	Points per game	112.0 #19
1.10 #15	Points per possession	1.12 #12
108.0 #2	Pace (possessions)	101.3 #26
Shooting
55.1 #9	Effective FG%	54.4 #13
31.2 #25	3-point %	35.0 #16
32.8 #30	3-point attempt rate	45.1 #10
35.3 #4	Free throw rate	22.8 #27
Possessions
17.4 #26	Turnover rate	15.2 #15
24.3 #25	Offensive rebound rate	28.3 #11
25.5 #21	Assists per game	27.5 #8
Defense
117.8 #24	Points allowed	124.5 #27
1.09 #16	Points allowed per possession	1.21 #30
54.2 #21	Opponent effective FG%	58.7 #29
30.5 #5	Opponent 3-point %	43.9 #30
16.3 #10	Turnovers forced	17.1 #7
76.4 #6	Defensive rebound rate	65.1 #30
13.7 #1	Steals per game	9.0 #15
4.8 #16	Blocks per game	5.3 #10

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Pelicans

2-4 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hawks121–99
Wvs Kings132–120
Lvs Nuggets91–104
L@ Nuggets135–141
L@ Jazz119–120

A week or more of rest.

Suns

1-3 overall · 1-3 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Nuggets120–127
L@ Thunder114–125
Wvs Warriors131–122
L@ Trail Blazers83–124

A week or more of rest.

Pelicans @ Suns

What could decide it: NO has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Pelicans

Suns

Pelicans has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Pelicans

Suns