Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 27, 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · at Bulls · Conference game

#27BKNNets

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nets and Bulls
BKN	This season	CHI
1-5	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	3-3
3-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CHI 118–116 · win probability CHI 56%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

BKN 2, CHI 2 · 2026-27 so far

BKNBig

Three-pointers

BKN hits 35.1% and allows 35.8%; CHI hits 28.1% and allows 39.3%. Threes are 48.0% and 47.9% of their shots

CHIBig

CHI offense vs BKN defense

Offense 12th of 30 against a defense 22nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

BKN has played the 19th-hardest schedule, CHI the 14th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 107 possessions: BKN plays 105.1 a game (10th fastest), CHI 109.8 (1st). Faster games mean more points

CHISmall

Home court

CHI at home. This season: CHI 0-2 at home, BKN 1-2 away

BKNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BKN 25.4%, CHI 29.2%. Defensive: BKN 77.8%, CHI 69.8%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BKN 50.7 and allows 55.3; CHI 48.2 and allows 56.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BKN 32.9, CHI 38.3. Allowed: BKN 33.5, CHI 33.5

Even

BKN offense vs CHI defense

Offense 29th of 30 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BKN 18.2%, CHI 16.2%. Forced: BKN 15.9%, CHI 14.7%

Even

Recent form

Last 5: BKN 3-2 ATS, margin -8.0; CHI 3-2 ATS, margin -10.4

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BKN 100%, CHI 100%. Transfers in: BKN 0, CHI 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BKN WLWLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
CHI WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: BKN away; CHI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BKN OOOUU	3-3	50%	1-5
CHI OUUOU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BKNlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
CHIlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 1	@ DEN	L103–107WO
Mar 3	@ PHX	L102–106WU
Mar 4	@ LAC	L89–126LO

Bulls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 1	@ DET	L110–126LO
Mar 3	@ ATL	W126–123WU
Mar 6	vs CHA	L99–131LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 17 since 2021-22

BKN 9–8 CHIBKN leads · 17 games since 2021-22 · BKN 9-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 9, 2025-26	CHI 115 @ BKN 123	BKN +3.5	BKN W
Jan 18, 2025-26	BKN 102 @ CHI 124	CHI -7.5	CHI W
Jan 16, 2025-26	CHI 109 @ BKN 112	BKN -1.5	BKN W
Dec 3, 2025-26	BKN 113 @ CHI 103	CHI -7.5	BKN W
Mar 13, 2024-25	BKN 110 @ CHI 116	CHI -1.5	CHI W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nets

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsCHA	L 103-110	+1.5	L −5.5	220.5	U 213
Oct 24	@CLE	L 121-125	+11.5	W +7.5	228.5	O 246
Oct 25	vsIND	L 109-136	+5.5	L −21.5	231.5	O 245
Oct 27	@BOS	L 124-125	+13.5	W +12.5	223.5	O 249
Oct 30	vsDET	L 94-110	+8.5	L −7.5	222.5	U 204
Nov 1	@IND	W 98-90	+3.5	W +11.5	230.5	U 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−5.5

CLE

L 121-125

+7.5

IND

L 109-136

−21.5

BOS

L 124-125

+12.5

DET

L 94-110

−7.5

IND

W 98-90

+11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CHA

L 103-110

−7.5

CLE

L 121-125

+17.5

IND

L 109-136

+13.5

BOS

L 124-125

+25.5

DET

L 94-110

−18.5

IND

W 98-90

−42.5

over 3under 3avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bulls

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@TOR	L 92-135	+10.5	L −32.5	237.5	U 227
Oct 23	@MIL	W 132-125	+1.5	W +8.5	241.5	O 257
Oct 24	vsWSH	L 120-124	-1.5	L −5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@BOS	L 99-134	+14.5	L −20.5	233.5	U 233
Oct 28	vsNY	L 127-133	+7.5	W +1.5	233.5	O 260
Oct 30	@BOS	L 111-125	+14.5	W +0.5	236.5	U 236

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−32.5

MIL

W 132-125

+8.5

WSH

L 120-124

−5.5

BOS

L 99-134

−20.5

L 127-133

+1.5

BOS

L 111-125

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TOR

L 92-135

−10.5

MIL

W 132-125

+15.5

WSH

L 120-124

−0.5

BOS

L 99-134

−0.5

L 127-133

+26.5

BOS

L 111-125

−0.5

over 2under 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Nets 2, Bulls 2, even 1

NetsBetterBulls

G K. Ellis5 pts · 2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 21

CHIBig

G N. Powell20.7 pts · 2.7 reb · 2 ast Score 71

G N. Traore10.5 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.7 ast Score 1

CHISmall

G J. Giddey8.5 pts · 5.3 reb · 7.5 ast Score 29

F J. Randle20.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 5.3 ast Score 39

BKNSmall

F C. Wilson21.2 pts · 6.7 reb · 2.5 ast Score 6

F M. Porter21.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 91

BKNBig

F M. Buzelis14.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 4

C D. Sharpe8 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 6

Even

F P. Williams7 pts · 3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 19

NetsBetterBulls

BKN offense29th of 30 · -5.5

Even

CHI defense30th of 30 · -9.4

BKN defense22nd of 30 · -1.7

CHISmall

CHI offense12th of 30 · +1.2

Backcourt-12.0 · 2 players

CHIBig

Backcourt+5.1 · 2 players

Frontcourt+7.8 · 3 players

BKNBig

Frontcourt-24.0 · 3 players

Bench-17.9 · 5 players

CHIBig

Bench-6.9 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBKN betterCHI betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nets

Guards

K. Ellis24 minN. Traore21 minT. Mann24 minD. Powell21 minB. Saraf21 min

Forwards

J. Randle34 minM. Porter32 minC. Johnson22 minN. Clowney22 minD. Wolf21 minJ. Minott11 min

Centers

D. Sharpe23 minM. Wagner19 min

Out

M. BrownDay-To-DayE. DeminOut

Bulls

Guards

N. Powell30 minJ. Giddey27 minT. Jones18 minB. Hield14 minJ. Hawkins14 minD. Swain12 min

Forwards

C. Wilson34 minM. Buzelis25 minP. Williams21 minL. Miller19 minZ. Collins18 minI. Okoro18 min

Out

J. SmithDay-To-DayT. AwakaDay-To-Day

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BKN108.2 #25

CHI113.5 #16

Points per possession

BKN1.03 #29

CHI1.04 #26

Pace (possessions)

BKN105.1 #10

CHI109.8 #1

Shooting

Effective FG%

BKN50.7 #26

CHI48.2 #30

3-point %

BKN35.1 #15

CHI28.1 #30

3-point attempt rate

BKN48.0 #3

CHI47.9 #4

Free throw rate

BKN32.9 #6

CHI38.3 #1

Possessions

Turnover rate

BKN18.2 #27

CHI16.2 #20

Offensive rebound rate

BKN25.4 #23

CHI29.2 #9

Assists per game

BKN22.8 #28

CHI24.3 #25

Defense

Points allowed

BKN116.0 #21

CHI129.3 #30

Points allowed per possession

BKN1.11 #18

CHI1.17 #27

Opponent effective FG%

BKN55.3 #23

CHI56.0 #26

Opponent 3-point %

BKN35.8 #19

CHI39.3 #28

Turnovers forced

BKN15.9 #12

CHI14.7 #21

Defensive rebound rate

BKN77.8 #2

CHI69.8 #24

Steals per game

BKN9.0 #14

CHI8.7 #17

Blocks per game

BKN4.7 #17

CHI5.0 #12

BKN		CHI
Scoring
108.2 #25	Points per game	113.5 #16
1.03 #29	Points per possession	1.04 #26
105.1 #10	Pace (possessions)	109.8 #1
Shooting
50.7 #26	Effective FG%	48.2 #30
35.1 #15	3-point %	28.1 #30
48.0 #3	3-point attempt rate	47.9 #4
32.9 #6	Free throw rate	38.3 #1
Possessions
18.2 #27	Turnover rate	16.2 #20
25.4 #23	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #9
22.8 #28	Assists per game	24.3 #25
Defense
116.0 #21	Points allowed	129.3 #30
1.11 #18	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #27
55.3 #23	Opponent effective FG%	56.0 #26
35.8 #19	Opponent 3-point %	39.3 #28
15.9 #12	Turnovers forced	14.7 #21
77.8 #2	Defensive rebound rate	69.8 #24
9.0 #14	Steals per game	8.7 #17
4.7 #17	Blocks per game	5.0 #12

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nets

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

W@ Pacers98–90
Lvs Pistons94–110
L@ Celtics124–125
Lvs Pacers109–136
L@ Cavaliers121–125

A week or more of rest.

Bulls

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

L@ Celtics111–125
Lvs Knicks127–133
L@ Celtics99–134
Lvs Wizards120–124
W@ Bucks132–125

A week or more of rest.

Nets @ Bulls

What could decide it

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Nets

Bulls

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nets

Bulls