Little Caesars Arena · at Pistons
LineNo line yet
Total—
 OKC | This season | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 3-3 | ATS | 5-1 |
| 1-5 | O/U | 2-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model: projects DET 111–106 · win probability DET 64%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 216.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record
What could decide it: DET has more of the edges
OKC 1, DET 5 · 2026-27 so far
DETBigOKC offense vs DET defense
Offense 18th of 30 against a defense 1st, on the model’s ratings
OKCBigDET offense vs OKC defense
Offense 17th of 30 against a defense 2nd, on the model’s ratings
DETBigThree-pointers
OKC hits 30.9% and allows 35.3%; DET hits 36.3% and allows 32.5%. Threes are 35.8% and 43.3% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
OKC has played the 5th-hardest schedule, DET the 17th. A record against a soft schedule means less
DETSmallShooting
Effective FG%: OKC 49.5 and allows 51.0; DET 53.1 and allows 48.8
DETSmallRecent form
Last 5: OKC 2-3 ATS, margin -3.0; DET 4-1 ATS, margin +8.0
DETSmallHome court
DET at home. This season: DET 2-0 at home, OKC 1-2 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: OKC 21.8, DET 28.9. Allowed: OKC 23.4, DET 28.1
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: OKC 28.5%, DET 27.2%. Defensive: OKC 71.4%, DET 72.8%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: OKC 14.5%, DET 15.6%. Forced: OKC 15.8%, DET 17.1%
Context
Tempo
About 101 possessions: OKC plays 101.1 a game (27th fastest), DET 100.9 (29th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: OKC 100%, DET 100%. Transfers in: OKC 0, DET 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edge
Spread
Market—
ModelDET -5.0
Model edge—
Total
Market—
Model216.8
Model edge—
Projected score
OKC 105.9 · DET 110.9
Win probability
DET 64%
1st half
Spread
DET -2.6
Total
109.0
Projected score
OKC 53.2 · DET 55.8
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
Now—
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now—
Moneyline
—
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2026-27, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKClast 6 | 4-2 67% | 3-3 50% | 1-5 17% |
| DETlast 6 | 5-1 83% | 5-1 83% | 2-4 33% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
OKC 6–4 DETOKC leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · OKC 5-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025-26 | DET 110 @ OKC 114 | OKC -11.5 | DET W |
| Feb 25, 2025-26 | OKC 116 @ DET 124 | DET -10.5 | OKC W |
| Apr 2, 2024-25 | DET 103 @ OKC 119 | OKC -12.5 | OKC W |
| Mar 15, 2024-25 | OKC 113 @ DET 107 | DET +4.5 | OKC W |
| Jan 28, 2023-24 | OKC 104 @ DET 120 | DET +12.5 | DET W |
ATS History · 2026-27
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Thunder
6 games played
Straight up
4-2
67% wins
Against the spread
3-3
50% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-5
17% overs · avg −12.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
@
SA
SAW 116-104
+10.5
22
vs
DEN
DENW 96-84
+4.5
25
vs
LAC
LACW 108-101
−9.5
26
vs
PHX
PHXW 125-114
+2.5
28
@
DAL
DALL 96-120
−28.5
31
@
HOU
HOUL 98-119
−18.5
covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
@SA
SAW 116-104
−9.5
22
vsDEN
DENW 96-84
−56.5
25
vsLAC
LACW 108-101
−14.5
26
vsPHX
PHXW 125-114
+17.5
28
@DAL
DALL 96-120
−11.5
31
@HOU
HOUL 98-119
−2.5
over 1under 5avg −12.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Pistons
6 games played
Straight up
5-1
83% wins
Against the spread
5-1
83% covers · avg +5.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-4
33% overs · avg −11.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
20
vs
BOS
BOSW 121-113
+9.5
23
@
MIA
MIAW 128-111
+14.5
25
@
PHI
PHIW 106-93
+11.5
27
@
NY
NYL 97-111
−9.5
28
vs
CHA
CHAW 97-89
+0.5
30
@
BKN
BKNW 110-94
+7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
20
vsBOS
BOSW 121-113
+13.5
23
@MIA
MIAW 128-111
+3.5
25
@PHI
PHIW 106-93
−29.5
27
@NY
NYL 97-111
−12.5
28
vsCHA
CHAW 97-89
−26.5
30
@BKN
BKNW 110-94
−18.5
over 2under 4avg −11.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Thunder has the better starters
Position by position: Thunder 3, Pistons 2, even 0
ThunderBetterPistons
G S. Gilgeous-Alexander26 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.3 ast
Score 88
←OKCBig
G C. Cunningham22.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 7.2 ast
Score 47
G A. Mitchell16.5 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.8 ast
Score 99
←OKCSmall
G A. Thompson8.8 pts · 7.4 reb · 5 ast
Score 79
G J. McCain10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 8
→DETBig
F D. Robinson16.8 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast
Score 77
G K. Williams5 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast
Score 40
→DETBig
F P. Reed13.8 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
Score 97
C I. Hartenstein9.5 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast
Score 88
←OKCBig
F J. Collins9.2 pts · 7.2 reb · 0.5 ast
Score 30
ThunderBetterPistons
OKC offense18th of 30 · -1.1
→DETBig
DET defense1st of 30 · +7.1
OKC defense2nd of 30 · +6.2
←OKCBig
DET offense17th of 30 · -0.6
Backcourt+24.2 · 4 players
←OKCBig
Backcourt+10.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+12.0 · 1 player
→DETBig
Frontcourt+19.7 · 3 players
Bench-4.1 · 5 players
→DETBig
Bench+22.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestOKC betterDET betterNEW no NBA numbers yet
Depth chart
Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
ThunderGuards
S. Gilgeous-Alexander33 minA. Mitchell26 minJ. McCain25 minK. Williams14 minJ. Dix18 minB. Stirtz16 min
Forwards
J. Williams18 minB. Barnhizer9 min
Centers
I. Hartenstein24 minA. Mara18 min
Out
A. CarusoOutC. HolmgrenOutJ. WilliamsOutC. WallaceOut
PistonsGuards
C. Cunningham34 minA. Thompson26 minD. Jenkins25 minE. Harkless21 minK. Huerter21 minJ. Green19 min
Forwards
D. Robinson30 minP. Reed27 minJ. Collins27 minT. Prince24 minR. Holland16 minT. Smith8 min
Centers
I. Jones5 min
Out
I. JoeOutJ. DurenOut
Matchup stats
2026-27 · rank among 30 teams
Scoring
Points per game
OKC106.5 #29DET109.8 #21Points per possession
OKC1.05 #23DET1.09 #18Pace (possessions)
OKC101.1 #27DET100.9 #29Shooting
Effective FG%
OKC49.5 #28DET53.1 #173-point %
OKC30.9 #26DET36.3 #93-point attempt rate
OKC35.8 #29DET43.3 #13Free throw rate
OKC21.8 #28DET28.9 #14Possessions
Turnover rate
OKC14.5 #7DET15.6 #17Offensive rebound rate
OKC28.5 #10DET27.2 #17Assists per game
OKC21.7 #29DET26.7 #15Defense
Points allowed
OKC107.0 #5DET101.8 #1Points allowed per possession
OKC1.06 #7DET1.01 #1Opponent effective FG%
OKC51.0 #6DET48.8 #2Opponent 3-point %
OKC35.3 #17DET32.5 #10Turnovers forced
OKC15.8 #13DET17.1 #6Defensive rebound rate
OKC71.4 #18DET72.8 #15Steals per game
OKC8.3 #20DET9.0 #12Blocks per game
OKC6.3 #7DET6.7 #4| OKC | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| 106.5 #29 | Points per game | 109.8 #21 |
| 1.05 #23 | Points per possession | 1.09 #18 |
| 101.1 #27 | Pace (possessions) | 100.9 #29 |
| Shooting | ||
| 49.5 #28 | Effective FG% | 53.1 #17 |
| 30.9 #26 | 3-point % | 36.3 #9 |
| 35.8 #29 | 3-point attempt rate | 43.3 #13 |
| 21.8 #28 | Free throw rate | 28.9 #14 |
| Possessions | ||
| 14.5 #7 | Turnover rate | 15.6 #17 |
| 28.5 #10 | Offensive rebound rate | 27.2 #17 |
| 21.7 #29 | Assists per game | 26.7 #15 |
| Defense | ||
| 107.0 #5 | Points allowed | 101.8 #1 |
| 1.06 #7 | Points allowed per possession | 1.01 #1 |
| 51.0 #6 | Opponent effective FG% | 48.8 #2 |
| 35.3 #17 | Opponent 3-point % | 32.5 #10 |
| 15.8 #13 | Turnovers forced | 17.1 #6 |
| 71.4 #18 | Defensive rebound rate | 72.8 #15 |
| 8.3 #20 | Steals per game | 9.0 #12 |
| 6.3 #7 | Blocks per game | 6.7 #4 |
Thunder
4-2 overall · 4-2 in conference · Western Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- L@ Rockets98–119
- L@ Mavericks96–120
- Wvs Suns125–114
- Wvs Clippers108–101
- Wvs Nuggets96–84
A week or more of rest.
Pistons
5-1 overall · 5-1 in conference · Eastern Conference
Last five, 2026-27
- W@ Nets110–94
- Wvs Hornets97–89
- L@ Knicks97–111
- W@ 76ers106–93
- W@ Heat128–111
A week or more of rest.