Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Feb 27, 3:00 PM ETDelta Center · at Jazz

#26UTAHJazz

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Wizards and Jazz
WSH	This season	UTAH
3-3	Record	1-5
3-3	ATS	1-5
1-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UTAH 117–117 · win probability UTAH 51%

Pick this game

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Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 233.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 212-225 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

WSH 4, UTAH 2 · 2026-27 so far

Context

Schedule so far

WSH has played the 26th-hardest schedule, UTAH the 4th. A record against a soft schedule means less

UTAHBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: WSH 20.9%, UTAH 25.7%. Defensive: WSH 68.0%, UTAH 77.1%

WSHBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: WSH 34.2, UTAH 31.6. Allowed: WSH 21.8, UTAH 33.8

WSHBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: WSH 52.1 and allows 48.1; UTAH 51.0 and allows 53.9

WSHBig

Three-pointers

WSH hits 29.3% and allows 28.7%; UTAH hits 32.6% and allows 37.6%. Threes are 37.6% and 41.7% of their shots

WSHBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: WSH 14.6%, UTAH 17.0%. Forced: WSH 13.3%, UTAH 13.3%

UTAHSmall

Home court

UTAH at home. This season: UTAH 1-4 at home, WSH 1-2 away

Context

Tempo

About 103 possessions: WSH plays 102.3 a game (20th fastest), UTAH 104.0 (12th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Recent form

Last 5: WSH 2-3 ATS, margin -1.4; UTAH 1-4 ATS, margin -8.2

Even

UTAH offense vs WSH defense

Offense 20th of 30 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

WSH offense vs UTAH defense

Offense 25th of 30 against a defense 27th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: WSH 100%, UTAH 100%. Transfers in: WSH 0, UTAH 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from league ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

ATS

2026-27, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
UTAH LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-4	—

Venue/role: WSH away; UTAH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3
UTAH OOUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2026-27, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%
UTAHlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wizards

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 1	@ PHX	L93–112LU
Mar 2	@ SAC	W116–112WO
Mar 4	@ GS	L126–131WO

Jazz

Date	Game	Last meeting
Mar 1	@ NO	W120–119LO
Mar 3	@ MIL	W128–96WU
Mar 5	@ ORL	L117–120WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

WSH 4–6 UTAHUTAH leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · WSH 3-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 25, 2025-26	WSH 133 @ UTAH 110	UTAH -3.5	WSH W
Mar 5, 2025-26	UTAH 122 @ WSH 112	WSH -3.5	UTAH W
Mar 19, 2024-25	WSH 112 @ UTAH 128	UTAH -2.5	UTAH W
Mar 5, 2024-25	UTAH 122 @ WSH 125	WSH -5.5	UTAH W
Mar 4, 2023-24	WSH 115 @ UTAH 127	UTAH -4.5	UTAH W

ATS History · 2026-27

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Wizards

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −14 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	vsMIL	W 128-116	-4.5	W +7.5	239.5	O 244
Oct 23	vsTOR	L 102-112	+9.5	L −0.5	236.5	U 214
Oct 24	@CHI	W 124-120	+1.5	W +5.5	244.5	U 244
Oct 26	@CHA	L 103-110	+2.5	L −4.5	225.5	U 213
Oct 28	@CLE	L 111-121	+9.5	L −0.5	240.5	U 232
Oct 30	vsCHA	W 95-79	-1.5	W +14.5	218.5	U 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+7.5

TOR

L 102-112

−0.5

CHI

W 124-120

+5.5

CHA

L 103-110

−4.5

CLE

L 111-121

−0.5

CHA

W 95-79

+14.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIL

W 128-116

+4.5

TOR

L 102-112

−22.5

CHI

W 124-120

−0.5

CHA

L 103-110

−12.5

CLE

L 111-121

−8.5

CHA

W 95-79

−44.5

over 1under 5avg −14 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jazz

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Oct 21	@MEM	L 103-123	+1.5	L −18.5	240.5	U 226
Oct 23	vsNO	W 120-119	-1.5	L −0.5	238.5	O 239
Oct 25	vsLAL	L 123-132	+6.5	L −2.5	237.5	O 255
Oct 26	vsMEM	L 105-110	+1.5	L −3.5	237.5	U 215
Oct 28	vsSA	L 111-117	+13.5	W +7.5	232.5	U 228
Oct 31	vsPOR	L 90-112	+6.5	L −15.5	232.5	U 202

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−18.5

W 120-119

−0.5

LAL

L 123-132

−2.5

MEM

L 105-110

−3.5

L 111-117

+7.5

POR

L 90-112

−15.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MEM

L 103-123

−14.5

W 120-119

+0.5

LAL

L 123-132

+17.5

MEM

L 105-110

−22.5

L 111-117

−4.5

POR

L 90-112

−30.5

over 2under 4avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Wizards has the better starters

Position by position: Wizards 2, Jazz 1, even 2

WizardsBetterJazz

G T. Young20.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 10.2 ast Score 23

WSHSmall

G K. George21.7 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast Score 8

G B. Coulibaly8.3 pts · 4 reb · 0.5 ast Score 4

Even

G A. Bailey13.3 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.2 ast Score 11

F A. Davis22.3 pts · 9.2 reb · 2 ast Score 86

WSHBig

G D. Peterson13.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 17

F K. George15.2 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 36

UTAHBig

F L. Markkanen15.4 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

F A. Dybantsa18 pts · 5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked

No call

C J. Hayes8 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 36

WizardsBetterJazz

WSH offense25th of 30 · -2.5

Even

UTAH defense27th of 30 · -6.0

WSH defense23rd of 30 · -2.9

Even

UTAH offense20th of 30 · -1.2

Backcourt-12.8 · 2 players

WSHBig

Backcourt-20.5 · 3 players

Frontcourt+11.5 · 3 players

UTAHBig

Frontcourt+15.0 · 2 players

Bench-14.5 · 5 players

UTAHBig

Bench+2.1 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestWSH betterUTAH betterNEW no NBA numbers yet

Projected starters come from who started the last five games and minutes played, and a lineup change can move them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of, on the model’s player values.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Wizards

Guards

T. Young36 minB. Coulibaly26 minW. Riley22 minT. Johnson21 minB. Carrington20 minT. Mann13 min

Forwards

A. Davis34 minK. George32 minA. Dybantsa29 minK. Middleton14 minF. Okpara1 min

Centers

D. Ayton14 min

Out

A. GillDay-To-DayJ. ChampagnieOutA. SarrDay-To-Day

Jazz

Guards

K. George32 minA. Bailey31 minD. Peterson30 minI. Collier19 minS. Mykhailiuk17 minJ. Okogie16 min

Forwards

L. Markkanen29 minB. Hinson20 minB. Sensabaugh16 minK. Filipowski8 minH. Ingram4 min

Centers

J. Hayes26 minM. Bamba19 minT. Bradley11 min

Out

J. JacksonOut

In order of minutes, from this season’s box scores. Players marked out are on ESPN’s injury report.

Matchup stats

2026-27 · rank among 30 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

WSH110.5 #20

UTAH108.7 #24

Points per possession

WSH1.08 #19

UTAH1.05 #25

Pace (possessions)

WSH102.3 #20

UTAH104.0 #12

Shooting

Effective FG%

WSH52.1 #20

UTAH51.0 #24

3-point %

WSH29.3 #29

UTAH32.6 #23

3-point attempt rate

WSH37.6 #28

UTAH41.7 #21

Free throw rate

WSH34.2 #5

UTAH31.6 #10

Possessions

Turnover rate

WSH14.6 #8

UTAH17.0 #25

Offensive rebound rate

WSH20.9 #29

UTAH25.7 #22

Assists per game

WSH24.5 #24

UTAH26.2 #19

Defense

Points allowed

WSH109.7 #11

UTAH118.8 #25

Points allowed per possession

WSH1.07 #11

UTAH1.14 #25

Opponent effective FG%

WSH48.1 #1

UTAH53.9 #18

Opponent 3-point %

WSH28.7 #1

UTAH37.6 #25

Turnovers forced

WSH13.3 #27

UTAH13.3 #28

Defensive rebound rate

WSH68.0 #28

UTAH77.1 #4

Steals per game

WSH7.2 #24

UTAH6.2 #29

Blocks per game

WSH5.3 #9

UTAH6.5 #5

WSH		UTAH
Scoring
110.5 #20	Points per game	108.7 #24
1.08 #19	Points per possession	1.05 #25
102.3 #20	Pace (possessions)	104.0 #12
Shooting
52.1 #20	Effective FG%	51.0 #24
29.3 #29	3-point %	32.6 #23
37.6 #28	3-point attempt rate	41.7 #21
34.2 #5	Free throw rate	31.6 #10
Possessions
14.6 #8	Turnover rate	17.0 #25
20.9 #29	Offensive rebound rate	25.7 #22
24.5 #24	Assists per game	26.2 #19
Defense
109.7 #11	Points allowed	118.8 #25
1.07 #11	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #25
48.1 #1	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #18
28.7 #1	Opponent 3-point %	37.6 #25
13.3 #27	Turnovers forced	13.3 #28
68.0 #28	Defensive rebound rate	77.1 #4
7.2 #24	Steals per game	6.2 #29
5.3 #9	Blocks per game	6.5 #5

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better league rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of the league, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Wizards

3-3 overall · 3-3 in conference · Eastern Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Wvs Hornets95–79
L@ Cavaliers111–121
L@ Hornets103–110
W@ Bulls124–120
Lvs Raptors102–112

A week or more of rest.

Jazz

1-5 overall · 1-5 in conference · Western Conference

Last five, 2026-27

Lvs Trail Blazers90–112
Lvs Spurs111–117
Lvs Grizzlies105–110
Lvs Lakers123–132
Wvs Pelicans120–119

A week or more of rest.

Wizards @ Jazz

What could decide it: WSH has more of the edges

Market vs model

Market

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2026-27

Wizards

Jazz

Wizards has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Wizards

Jazz