Bowling Green Falcons at Georgia State Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 2, 6:00 PM ETGSU Convocation Center · at Georgia St

LineGAST -4.5moved 1 toward GAST

Total158.5up 2 from 156.5

Season records: Bowling Green and Georgia St
BGSU	This season	GAST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GAST 75–74 · win probability GAST 54%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

Line

GAST -4.5

moved 1 toward GAST

Total

158.5

model 148.3 · Under by 10

Model edge

BGSU by 3.5

model vs market

Public on the spread

52% GAST

67% of the money

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BGSU has more of the edges

BGSU 4, GAST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BGSUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BGSU 28.7%, GAST 27.7%. Defensive: BGSU 73.1%, GAST 66.4%

BGSUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BGSU 51.8 and allows 51.0; GAST 44.2 and allows 50.6

BGSUSmall

Three-pointers

BGSU hits 34.4% and allows 33.5%; GAST hits 30.6% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 34.2% and 42.4% of their shots

GASTSmall

Home court

GAST at home. This season: GAST 0-0 at home, BGSU 0-0 away

BGSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BGSU 16.4%, GAST 15.9%. Forced: BGSU 18.5%, GAST 16.4%

Context

Schedule so far

BGSU has played the 192nd-hardest schedule, GAST the 232nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: BGSU plays 70.5 a game (96th fastest), GAST 69.1 (176th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BGSU 24%, GAST 4%. Transfers in: BGSU 4, GAST 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: BGSU 37.0, GAST 37.2. Allowed: BGSU 37.2, GAST 34.9

Even

BGSU offense vs GAST defense

Offense 172nd of 366 against a defense 205th, on the model’s ratings

Even

GAST offense vs BGSU defense

Offense 214th of 366 against a defense 231st, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines

Situation	Games	Favorite won	Favorite covered	Went over
Home favorites of 3 to 6.5	3171	66%	50%	50%
Non-conference games at this spread	1736	67%	50%	49%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite	6763	75%	50%	51%
Games with a total of 155 to 159.5	1555	74%	51%	49%

A bet at standard prices needs 52.4% to break even, and most situations sit near 50%. Past rates, not a prediction.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenGAST -3.5

1 → GAST

NowGAST -4.5

1 pt toward GAST

Total

Open156.5

▲ 2

Now158.5

Up 2 since the open

Moneyline

BGSU +154 · GAST -185

Line movement

Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot

Opened GAST -3.5 · now GAST -4.5 · moved 1 toward GASTmodel GAST -1

model GAST -1

Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

BGSU +4.5Spread

GAST -4.5

Bets

48%52%

Money

33%67%

Money is 15 pts ahead of bets on GAST -4.5

BGSUWinner

GAST

Bets

8%92%

Money

94%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Mon, Nov 2, 4:41 AM ET. ⓘ

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	BGSU	GAST	Over	Under	BGSU	GAST
BetMGMMGM	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	158.5-110	158.5-110	+150	-185
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	158-110	158-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	-3.5+112	+3.5-137	157.5-108	157.5-118	+170	-225
BetUSBetUS	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	158-110	158-110	—	—
BovadaBovada	-4-105	+4-115	157.5-115	157.5-105	+160	-185
DraftKingsDK	-4.5-112	+4.5-108	158.5-108	158.5-112	+154	-185
FanDuelFD	-3.5-102	+3.5-120	158.5-115	158.5-105	+146	-178
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-4.5-106	+4.5-106	158-108	158-108	—	—

Prices from The Odds API, updated 2:00 AM ET. Green = best price in the column.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	GAST -4.5	GAST -1.1	BGSU +3.4
Total	158.5	148.3	Under 10.2
Projected score	—	BGSU 73.6 · GAST 74.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GAST -0.5	—
1H total	69.4	—
1H projected score	BGSU 34.4 · GAST 35	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LLWWW	14-15	48%	7-5	4-4
GAST WLLLL	13-17	43%	5-7	2-4

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU OOUOO	11-18	38%	15-14
GAST UOOOO	14-16	47%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
GAST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Bowling Green

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs CLE	No recent meeting
Nov 12	vs NIA	W76–68LU
Nov 17	@ W&M	L74–82LU

Georgia St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ CLT	L63–77LU
Nov 10	@ FRES	No recent meeting
Nov 15	vs NORF	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bowling Green

29 games played

Straight up

15-14

52% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1452%

W W L L W W W L W W L W L L W W L L L W L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

W W W L L W W L L W L L W L L W L L L W L W W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-1838%

U U O U U U U O U U O O O U O U U O U U U U U U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXST	W 83-48	-5.5	W +29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 9	vsLEM	W 83-60	-11.5	W +11.5	154.5	U 143
Nov 15	@DAV	L 87-91	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 19	vsW&M	L 74-82	-8.5	L −16.5	167.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsBUCK	W 71-66	-10.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsVMI	W 81-48	-11.5	W +21.5	148.5	U 129
Dec 1	@KSU	W 82-66	+12.5	W +28.5	159.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsUVU	L 71-82	+1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 153
Dec 16	vsCHST	W 76-55	-21.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 131
Dec 20	@OHIO	W 68-58	-1.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsM-OH	L 83-93	-6.5	L −16.5	150.5	O 176
Jan 3	@MASS	W 101-100	-1.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 201
Jan 6	@KENT	L 93-96	+3.5	W +0.5	155.5	O 189
Jan 9	vsAKR	L 67-77	+4.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsEMU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 164
Jan 20	@WMU	W 72-54	-6.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 126
Jan 24	@TOL	L 72-73	-1.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 27	vsBUF	L 78-89	-7.5	L −18.5	150.5	O 167
Jan 31	@CMU	L 59-62	-8.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 3	vsBALL	W 77-52	-11.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 129
Feb 7	@ARST	L 54-91	+2.5	L −34.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 11	@NIU	W 68-52	-7.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 120
Feb 14	vsTOL	W 80-70	-3.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 150
Feb 17	vsKENT	L 71-78	-1.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 149
Feb 20	@M-OH	L 77-91	+8.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 24	vsWMU	L 79-88	-11.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 167
Feb 28	vsMASS	W 81-62	-3.5	W +15.5	150.5	U 143
Mar 6	@EMU	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 146
Mar 12	vsTOL	L 76-77	+1.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXST

W 83-48

+29.5

LEM

W 83-60

+11.5

DAV

L 87-91

+0.5

W&M

L 74-82

−16.5

BUCK

W 71-66

−5.5

VMI

W 81-48

+21.5

KSU

W 82-66

+28.5

UVU

L 71-82

−9.5

CHST

W 76-55

−0.5

OHIO

W 68-58

+8.5

M-OH

L 83-93

−16.5

MASS

W 101-100

−0.5

KENT

L 93-96

+0.5

AKR

L 67-77

−5.5

EMU

W 85-79

−5.5

WMU

W 72-54

+11.5

TOL

L 72-73

−2.5

BUF

L 78-89

−18.5

CMU

L 59-62

−11.5

BALL

W 77-52

+13.5

ARST

L 54-91

−34.5

NIU

W 68-52

+8.5

TOL

W 80-70

+6.5

KENT

L 71-78

−8.5

M-OH

L 77-91

−5.5

WMU

L 79-88

−20.5

MASS

W 81-62

+15.5

EMU

W 77-69

+2.5

TOL

L 76-77

+0.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXST

W 83-48

−15.5

LEM

W 83-60

−11.5

DAV

L 87-91

+33.5

W&M

L 74-82

−11.5

BUCK

W 71-66

−7.5

VMI

W 81-48

−19.5

KSU

W 82-66

−11.5

UVU

L 71-82

+8.5

CHST

W 76-55

−17.5

OHIO

W 68-58

−27.5

M-OH

L 83-93

+25.5

MASS

W 101-100

+48.5

KENT

L 93-96

+33.5

AKR

L 67-77

−19.5

EMU

W 85-79

+22.5

WMU

W 72-54

−26.5

TOL

L 72-73

−10.5

BUF

L 78-89

+16.5

CMU

L 59-62

−28.5

BALL

W 77-52

−8.5

ARST

L 54-91

−9.5

NIU

W 68-52

−24.5

TOL

W 80-70

−0.5

KENT

L 71-78

−2.5

M-OH

L 77-91

+13.5

WMU

L 79-88

+17.5

MASS

W 81-62

−7.5

EMU

W 77-69

+3.5

TOL

L 76-77

+2.5

over 11under 18avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L W L L L L L W L W W W L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U O U U U O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	@MER	L 67-78	+10.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@KENN	L 69-92	+14.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsJXST	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 18	@GASO	L 67-90	+9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	@APP	W 70-63	+7.5	W +14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@MRSH	L 80-84	+13.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 164
Jan 3	@CCU	W 89-71	+6.5	W +24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsAPP	L 50-52	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	vsMRSH	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 154
Jan 17	@ULM	W 77-57	-6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	vsUSM	W 69-62	-1.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsARST	W 82-81	+4.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 29	@UL	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	@USA	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 4	vsTROY	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsNIU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 12	@JMU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ODU	L 55-78	+3.5	L −19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 19	vsGASO	W 66-64	+1.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	vsJMU	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 24	vsCCU	L 71-76	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	vsODU	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsUL	L 75-84	-1.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

MER

L 67-78

−0.5

KENN

L 69-92

−8.5

JXST

W 77-73

+7.5

GASO

L 67-90

−13.5

APP

W 70-63

+14.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+9.5

CCU

W 89-71

+24.5

APP

L 50-52

−0.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+12.5

ULM

W 77-57

+13.5

USM

W 69-62

+5.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

−11.5

USA

L 67-69

+3.5

TROY

L 63-74

−4.5

NIU

L 74-75

−5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+3.5

ODU

L 55-78

−19.5

GASO

W 66-64

+3.5

JMU

L 65-80

−12.5

CCU

L 71-76

−3.5

ODU

L 73-81

−6.5

L 75-84

−10.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

MER

L 67-78

−10.5

KENN

L 69-92

+2.5

JXST

W 77-73

+10.5

GASO

L 67-90

−2.5

APP

W 70-63

−4.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+12.5

CCU

W 89-71

+11.5

APP

L 50-52

−38.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+0.5

ULM

W 77-57

−21.5

USM

W 69-62

−13.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

+24.5

USA

L 67-69

−4.5

TROY

L 63-74

−7.5

NIU

L 74-75

+5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+15.5

ODU

L 55-78

−14.5

GASO

W 66-64

−24.5

JMU

L 65-80

+2.5

CCU

L 71-76

+5.5

ODU

L 73-81

+4.5

L 75-84

+24.5

over 14under 16avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bowling Green has the better starters

Position by position: Bowling Green 2, Georgia St 1, even 2

Bowling GreenBetterGeorgia St

G J. Johnson TR13.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.5 ast Score 80

BGSUSmall

G J. Jackson TR12.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 51

G J. Cranford TR11.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35

GASTSmall

G J. Meyer TR12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 51

G J. Shackelford11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 59

BGSUSmall

G E. Parnell TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F A. Goins3.1 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Dixon TR9.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 75

F C. Essandoko TR2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Sirtautas TR5.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

Bowling GreenBetterGeorgia St

BGSU offense172nd of 366 · -5.3

Even

GAST defense205th of 366 · -5.0

BGSU defense231st of 366 · -6.1

Even

GAST offense214th of 366 · -6.5

Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players

BGSUSmall

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players

GASTSmall

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

Bench-1.4 · 5 players

BGSUSmall

Bench-3.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestBGSU betterGAST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Bowling Green

Guards

J. Johnson28 min · TRJ. Cranford26 min · TRJ. Shackelford24 minM. Leach8 minT. Beckford7 min · TRC. Dedivanaj2 min

Forwards

A. Goins8 minC. Essandoko8 min · TRC. Karel5 minP. Squire3 minL. AtenyNew

Georgia St

Guards

J. Jackson33 min · TRJ. Meyer29 min · TRE. Parnell26 min · TRZ. Wilburn17 min · TRA. Smith15 min · TRD. Thomas14 min · TR

Forwards

T. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Sirtautas20 min · TRJ. Fredson-Cole19 min · TRO. WilsonNewK. JacksonNew

Centers

M. Nicholson4 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BGSU76.8 #124

GAST68.4 #307

Points per possession

BGSU1.08 #177

GAST0.99 #335

Pace (possessions)

BGSU70.5 #96

GAST69.1 #176

Shooting

Effective FG%

BGSU51.8 #153

GAST44.2 #362

3-point %

BGSU34.4 #148

GAST30.6 #329

3-point attempt rate

BGSU34.2 #289

GAST42.4 #129

Free throw rate

BGSU37.0 #129

GAST37.2 #124

Possessions

Turnover rate

BGSU16.4 #164

GAST15.9 #132

Offensive rebound rate

BGSU28.7 #244

GAST27.7 #278

Assists per game

BGSU13.1 #203

GAST11.1 #334

Defense

Points allowed

BGSU72.7 #127

GAST75.4 #203

Points allowed per possession

BGSU1.04 #71

GAST1.09 #202

Opponent effective FG%

BGSU51.0 #163

GAST50.6 #135

Opponent 3-point %

BGSU33.5 #161

GAST33.1 #132

Turnovers forced

BGSU18.5 #73

GAST16.4 #197

Defensive rebound rate

BGSU73.1 #31

GAST66.4 #312

Steals per game

BGSU8.2 #30

GAST6.7 #149

Blocks per game

BGSU3.5 #138

GAST3.0 #212

BGSU		GAST
Scoring
76.8 #124	Points per game	68.4 #307
1.08 #177	Points per possession	0.99 #335
70.5 #96	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #176
Shooting
51.8 #153	Effective FG%	44.2 #362
34.4 #148	3-point %	30.6 #329
34.2 #289	3-point attempt rate	42.4 #129
37.0 #129	Free throw rate	37.2 #124
Possessions
16.4 #164	Turnover rate	15.9 #132
28.7 #244	Offensive rebound rate	27.7 #278
13.1 #203	Assists per game	11.1 #334
Defense
72.7 #127	Points allowed	75.4 #203
1.04 #71	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #202
51.0 #163	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #135
33.5 #161	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #132
18.5 #73	Turnovers forced	16.4 #197
73.1 #31	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #312
8.2 #30	Steals per game	6.7 #149
3.5 #138	Blocks per game	3.0 #212

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Bowling Green

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Toledo76–77
W@ E Michigan77–69
Wvs UMass81–62
Lvs W Michigan79–88
L@ Miami OH77–91

A week or more of rest.

Georgia St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana75–84
Lvs Old Dominion73–81
Lvs Coastal71–76
Lvs James Madison65–80
Wvs GA Southern66–64

A week or more of rest.