Georgia State Panthers at Fresno State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 10, 9:00 PM ETSave Mart Center · at Fresno St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Georgia St and Fresno St
GAST	This season	FRES
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FRES 77–70 · win probability FRES 74%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FRES has more of the edges

GAST 0, FRES 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

GAST has played the 232nd-hardest schedule, FRES the 103rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

FRESSmall

Three-pointers

GAST hits 30.6% and allows 33.1%; FRES hits 32.1% and allows 30.7%. Threes are 42.4% and 40.9% of their shots

FRESSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GAST 27.7%, FRES 27.9%. Defensive: GAST 66.4%, FRES 69.4%

FRESSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GAST 44.2 and allows 50.6; FRES 50.6 and allows 51.5

FRESSmall

Home court

FRES at home. This season: FRES 0-0 at home, GAST 0-0 away

Even

FRES offense vs GAST defense

Offense 176th of 366 against a defense 205th, on the model’s ratings

Even

GAST offense vs FRES defense

Offense 214th of 366 against a defense 190th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GAST 37.2, FRES 33.8. Allowed: GAST 34.9, FRES 28.6

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GAST 15.9%, FRES 18.1%. Forced: GAST 16.4%, FRES 18.2%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: GAST plays 69.1 a game (176th fastest), FRES 69.3 (156th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GAST 4%, FRES 0%. Transfers in: GAST 10, FRES 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FRES -7.2	—
Total	—	146.7	—
Projected score	—	GAST 69.8 · FRES 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FRES -4.2	—
1H total	68.6	—
1H projected score	GAST 32.2 · FRES 36.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WLLLL	13-17	43%	8-7	—
FRES WLWLW	21-10	68%	12-4	—

Venue/role: GAST away; FRES home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UOOOO	14-16	47%	8-22
FRES UUUUU	12-19	39%	12-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
FRES	2-8 20%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs NORF	No recent meeting
Nov 20	@ JXST	W77–73WO
Nov 23	vs TULN	No recent meeting

Fresno St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs UCR	No recent meeting
Nov 18	@ SJSU	W82–68WU
Nov 20	vs ALST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L W L L L L L W L W W W L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U O U U U O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	@MER	L 67-78	+10.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@KENN	L 69-92	+14.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsJXST	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 18	@GASO	L 67-90	+9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	@APP	W 70-63	+7.5	W +14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@MRSH	L 80-84	+13.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 164
Jan 3	@CCU	W 89-71	+6.5	W +24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsAPP	L 50-52	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	vsMRSH	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 154
Jan 17	@ULM	W 77-57	-6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	vsUSM	W 69-62	-1.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsARST	W 82-81	+4.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 29	@UL	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	@USA	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 4	vsTROY	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsNIU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 12	@JMU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ODU	L 55-78	+3.5	L −19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 19	vsGASO	W 66-64	+1.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	vsJMU	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 24	vsCCU	L 71-76	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	vsODU	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsUL	L 75-84	-1.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

MER

L 67-78

−0.5

KENN

L 69-92

−8.5

JXST

W 77-73

+7.5

GASO

L 67-90

−13.5

APP

W 70-63

+14.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+9.5

CCU

W 89-71

+24.5

APP

L 50-52

−0.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+12.5

ULM

W 77-57

+13.5

USM

W 69-62

+5.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

−11.5

USA

L 67-69

+3.5

TROY

L 63-74

−4.5

NIU

L 74-75

−5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+3.5

ODU

L 55-78

−19.5

GASO

W 66-64

+3.5

JMU

L 65-80

−12.5

CCU

L 71-76

−3.5

ODU

L 73-81

−6.5

L 75-84

−10.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

MER

L 67-78

−10.5

KENN

L 69-92

+2.5

JXST

W 77-73

+10.5

GASO

L 67-90

−2.5

APP

W 70-63

−4.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+12.5

CCU

W 89-71

+11.5

APP

L 50-52

−38.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+0.5

ULM

W 77-57

−21.5

USM

W 69-62

−13.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

+24.5

USA

L 67-69

−4.5

TROY

L 63-74

−7.5

NIU

L 74-75

+5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+15.5

ODU

L 55-78

−14.5

GASO

W 66-64

−24.5

JMU

L 65-80

+2.5

CCU

L 71-76

+5.5

ODU

L 73-81

+4.5

L 75-84

+24.5

over 14under 16avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fresno St

31 games played

Straight up

12-19

39% wins

Against the spread

21-10

68% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1939%

L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L W W L L W W L L W L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

21-1068%

L W L W W W W L L W L W W W L W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1939%

U O O U O O U U U O U U U U U O U O U U O U O O O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUPST	L 66-67	-9.5	L −10.5	164.5	U 133
Nov 8	vsLBSU	W 82-62	-6.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 144
Nov 12	vsUCSD	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 151
Nov 15	vsUVU	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 18	vsSFA	W 80-78	+2.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 21	vsNOLA	W 85-76	-6.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsPEPP	W 76-53	-2.5	W +20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 30	vsCSUB	L 71-76	-10.5	L −15.5	150.5	U 147
Dec 6	@ARK	L 58-82	+19.5	L −4.5	161.5	U 140
Dec 10	@CSUN	L 87-89	+3.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 20	@UNLV	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 156
Dec 30	vsUSU	L 63-72	+14.5	W +5.5	154.5	U 135
Jan 3	vsNEV	L 65-66	+4.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 131
Jan 6	@SJSU	W 70-55	-1.5	W +13.5	149.5	U 125
Jan 10	@SDSU	L 52-71	+14.5	L −4.5	146.5	U 123
Jan 13	vsCSU	W 79-69	+3.5	W +13.5	139.5	O 148
Jan 17	vsWYO	W 63-60	+3.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 123
Jan 21	@UNM	L 74-83	+15.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsGCU	L 57-68	+4.5	L −6.5	145.5	U 125
Jan 31	@AF	W 79-62	-9.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 3	vsUNLV	W 98-96	+1.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 194
Feb 7	@NEV	L 59-69	+11.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 10	@USU	L 78-91	+21.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 14	vsAF	W 93-63	-14.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 156
Feb 17	@WYO	L 82-92	+9.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 174
Feb 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	+9.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 158
Feb 24	@CSU	L 70-74	+8.5	W +4.5	149.5	U 144
Feb 28	vsBOIS	L 53-69	+7.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsSJSU	W 82-68	-7.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 7	@GCU	L 60-85	+12.5	L −12.5	149.5	U 145
Mar 11	vsCSU	L 63-67	+7.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−10.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+13.5

UCSD

L 73-78

−6.5

UVU

W 75-74

+5.5

SFA

W 80-78

+4.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+2.5

PEPP

W 76-53

+20.5

CSUB

L 71-76

−15.5

ARK

L 58-82

−4.5

CSUN

L 87-89

+1.5

UNLV

L 72-84

−3.5

USU

L 63-72

+5.5

NEV

L 65-66

+3.5

SJSU

W 70-55

+13.5

SDSU

L 52-71

−4.5

CSU

W 79-69

+13.5

WYO

W 63-60

+6.5

UNM

L 74-83

+6.5

GCU

L 57-68

−6.5

W 79-62

+7.5

UNLV

W 98-96

+3.5

NEV

L 59-69

+1.5

USU

L 78-91

+8.5

W 93-63

+15.5

WYO

L 82-92

−0.5

UNM

L 78-80

+7.5

CSU

L 70-74

+4.5

BOIS

L 53-69

−8.5

SJSU

W 82-68

+6.5

GCU

L 60-85

−12.5

CSU

L 63-67

+3.5

covered 21didn’t cover 10avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UPST

L 66-67

−31.5

LBSU

W 82-62

+1.5

UCSD

L 73-78

+2.5

UVU

W 75-74

−7.5

SFA

W 80-78

+11.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+6.5

PEPP

W 76-53

−21.5

CSUB

L 71-76

−3.5

ARK

L 58-82

−21.5

CSUN

L 87-89

+14.5

UNLV

L 72-84

−3.5

USU

L 63-72

−19.5

NEV

L 65-66

−15.5

SJSU

W 70-55

−24.5

SDSU

L 52-71

−23.5

CSU

W 79-69

+8.5

WYO

W 63-60

−22.5

UNM

L 74-83

+5.5

GCU

L 57-68

−20.5

W 79-62

−0.5

UNLV

W 98-96

+40.5

NEV

L 59-69

−21.5

USU

L 78-91

+16.5

W 93-63

+13.5

WYO

L 82-92

+25.5

UNM

L 78-80

+1.5

CSU

L 70-74

−5.5

BOIS

L 53-69

−27.5

SJSU

W 82-68

−1.5

GCU

L 60-85

−4.5

CSU

L 63-67

−16.5

over 12under 19avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Georgia St 1, Fresno St 1, even 3

Georgia StBetterFresno St

G J. Jackson TR12.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 51

No call

G D. Lungu TR13.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 3 ast Not ranked

G J. Meyer TR12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 51

FRESSmall

G R. Candelino TR11.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 76

G E. Parnell TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

Even

G B. Amuneke TR2.1 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28

F T. Dixon TR9.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 75

GASTBig

F B. Henige TR4.9 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38

F J. Sirtautas TR5.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

No call

C B. Fall TR0.6 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

Georgia StBetterFresno St

GAST offense214th of 366 · -6.5

Even

FRES defense190th of 366 · -4.4

GAST defense205th of 366 · -5.0

Even

FRES offense176th of 366 · -5.4

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

FRESBig

Backcourt+1.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

GASTSmall

Frontcourt-0.8 · 2 players

Bench-3.7 · 5 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestGAST betterFRES betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Georgia St

Guards

J. Jackson33 min · TRJ. Meyer29 min · TRE. Parnell26 min · TRZ. Wilburn17 min · TRA. Smith15 min · TRD. Thomas14 min · TR

Forwards

T. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Sirtautas20 min · TRJ. Fredson-Cole19 min · TRO. WilsonNewK. JacksonNew

Centers

M. Nicholson4 min · TR

Fresno St

Guards

D. Lungu27 min · TRR. Candelino25 min · TRB. Amuneke8 min · TRN. ZulemieNewK. PerryNewQ. RhymesNew

Forwards

B. Henige20 min · TRR. ParsleyNewY. Kesse-BedaNewA. GrangerNewM. VuckovicNewC. SchroederNew

Centers

B. Fall5 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GAST68.4 #307

FRES72.3 #233

Points per possession

GAST0.99 #335

FRES1.04 #266

Pace (possessions)

GAST69.1 #176

FRES69.3 #156

Shooting

Effective FG%

GAST44.2 #362

FRES50.6 #206

3-point %

GAST30.6 #329

FRES32.1 #274

3-point attempt rate

GAST42.4 #129

FRES40.9 #146

Free throw rate

GAST37.2 #124

FRES33.8 #218

Possessions

Turnover rate

GAST15.9 #132

FRES18.1 #277

Offensive rebound rate

GAST27.7 #278

FRES27.9 #272

Assists per game

GAST11.1 #334

FRES12.6 #247

Defense

Points allowed

GAST75.4 #203

FRES73.5 #142

Points allowed per possession

GAST1.09 #202

FRES1.06 #110

Opponent effective FG%

GAST50.6 #135

FRES51.5 #184

Opponent 3-point %

GAST33.1 #132

FRES30.7 #30

Turnovers forced

GAST16.4 #197

FRES18.2 #88

Defensive rebound rate

GAST66.4 #312

FRES69.4 #183

Steals per game

GAST6.7 #149

FRES6.7 #154

Blocks per game

GAST3.0 #212

FRES2.2 #331

GAST		FRES
Scoring
68.4 #307	Points per game	72.3 #233
0.99 #335	Points per possession	1.04 #266
69.1 #176	Pace (possessions)	69.3 #156
Shooting
44.2 #362	Effective FG%	50.6 #206
30.6 #329	3-point %	32.1 #274
42.4 #129	3-point attempt rate	40.9 #146
37.2 #124	Free throw rate	33.8 #218
Possessions
15.9 #132	Turnover rate	18.1 #277
27.7 #278	Offensive rebound rate	27.9 #272
11.1 #334	Assists per game	12.6 #247
Defense
75.4 #203	Points allowed	73.5 #142
1.09 #202	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #110
50.6 #135	Opponent effective FG%	51.5 #184
33.1 #132	Opponent 3-point %	30.7 #30
16.4 #197	Turnovers forced	18.2 #88
66.4 #312	Defensive rebound rate	69.4 #183
6.7 #149	Steals per game	6.7 #154
3.0 #212	Blocks per game	2.2 #331

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana75–84
Lvs Old Dominion73–81
Lvs Coastal71–76
Lvs James Madison65–80
Wvs GA Southern66–64

A week or more of rest.

Fresno St

12-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Colorado St63–67
L@ Grand Canyon60–85
Wvs San José St82–68
Lvs Boise St53–69
L@ Colorado St70–74

A week or more of rest.

Georgia State Panthers at Fresno State Bulldogs

What could decide it: FRES has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia St

Fresno St

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Georgia St

Fresno St