Norfolk State Spartans at Georgia State Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 AM ETGSU Convocation Center · at Georgia St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Norfolk St and Georgia St
NORF	This season	GAST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GAST 79–68 · win probability GAST 83%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GAST has more of the edges

NORF 2, GAST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NORFBig

Three-pointers

NORF hits 34.2% and allows 32.0%; GAST hits 30.6% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 30.6% and 42.4% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

NORF has played the 343rd-hardest schedule, GAST the 232nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

GASTSmall

NORF offense vs GAST defense

Offense 314th of 366 against a defense 205th, on the model’s ratings

NORFSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NORF 32.5%, GAST 27.7%. Defensive: NORF 67.7%, GAST 66.4%

GASTSmall

GAST offense vs NORF defense

Offense 214th of 366 against a defense 301st, on the model’s ratings

GASTSmall

Home court

GAST at home. This season: GAST 0-0 at home, NORF 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NORF 43.5, GAST 37.2. Allowed: NORF 45.3, GAST 34.9

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NORF 18.7%, GAST 15.9%. Forced: NORF 18.8%, GAST 16.4%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: NORF 49.3 and allows 51.7; GAST 44.2 and allows 50.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NORF 8%, GAST 4%. Transfers in: NORF 4, GAST 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: NORF plays 69.1 a game (172nd fastest), GAST 69.1 (176th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GAST -10.8	—
Total	—	146.2	—
Projected score	—	NORF 67.7 · GAST 78.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GAST -6.3	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	NORF 31.1 · GAST 37.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NORF WWLLL	13-15	46%	8-7	—
GAST WLLLL	13-17	43%	5-7	—

Venue/role: NORF away; GAST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NORF OOOOO	18-10	64%	11-17
GAST UOOOO	14-16	47%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NORF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
GAST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Norfolk St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ GT	No recent meeting
Nov 21	vs UNCW	W74–69WO
Nov 25	@ NCSU	No recent meeting

Georgia St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	@ JXST	W77–73WO
Nov 23	vs TULN	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs FGCU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Norfolk St

28 games played

Straight up

11-17

39% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-10

64% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1739%

L L L W L L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

L W W L W L W L L W W L L L L L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1064%

O U U U O O U O O O O O U U U O O O O O U U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsW&M	L 78-81	+2.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@ODU	L 57-60	+8.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 14	@TOW	L 41-51	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 21	vsHAMP	W 62-60	-2.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 122
Nov 23	@WYO	L 67-75	+15.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 29	@ARIZ	L 61-98	+35.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	@JMU	L 67-68	+10.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 10	@BAY	L 67-97	+26.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsGRAM	L 68-80	-1.5	L −13.5	135.5	O 148
Dec 19	vsJKST	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 21	@UTEP	W 72-71	+10.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsUCI	L 70-89	+11.5	L −7.5	136.5	O 159
Dec 28	@UL	L 54-63	+3.5	L −5.5	126.5	U 117
Jan 3	@NCCU	L 67-69	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@DSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	vsUMES	L 70-74	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	O 144
Jan 17	@SCST	W 89-82	-5.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 24	vsCOPP	W 103-76	-13.5	W +13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 26	vsMORG	L 78-79	-7.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@HOW	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsNCCU	W 75-68	-4.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsDSU	W 75-58	-9.5	W +7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	@UMES	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsSCST	W 90-71	-10.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 28	@COPP	W 75-69	-5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@MORG	L 84-90	-3.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 174
Mar 5	vsHOW	L 76-84	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsSCST	L 82-88	-7.5	L −13.5	144.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

−0.5

ODU

L 57-60

+5.5

TOW

L 41-51

+3.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−0.5

WYO

L 67-75

+7.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

−1.5

JMU

L 67-68

+9.5

BAY

L 67-97

−3.5

GRAM

L 68-80

−13.5

JKST

W 82-72

+4.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+11.5

UCI

L 70-89

−7.5

L 54-63

−5.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−3.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

−9.5

SCST

W 89-82

+1.5

COPP

W 103-76

+13.5

MORG

L 78-79

−8.5

HOW

L 60-88

−20.5

NCCU

W 75-68

+2.5

DSU

W 75-58

+7.5

UMES

W 70-66

+2.5

SCST

W 90-71

+8.5

COPP

W 75-69

+0.5

MORG

L 84-90

−9.5

HOW

L 76-84

−1.5

SCST

L 82-88

−13.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

+0.5

ODU

L 57-60

−32.5

TOW

L 41-51

−46.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−11.5

WYO

L 67-75

+0.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

+12.5

JMU

L 67-68

−3.5

BAY

L 67-97

+15.5

GRAM

L 68-80

+12.5

JKST

W 82-72

+13.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+6.5

UCI

L 70-89

+22.5

L 54-63

−9.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−5.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

+11.5

SCST

W 89-82

+31.5

COPP

W 103-76

+35.5

MORG

L 78-79

+4.5

HOW

L 60-88

+1.5

NCCU

W 75-68

−5.5

DSU

W 75-58

−1.5

UMES

W 70-66

−0.5

SCST

W 90-71

+20.5

COPP

W 75-69

+3.5

MORG

L 84-90

+17.5

HOW

L 76-84

+10.5

SCST

L 82-88

+25.5

over 18under 10avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L W L L L L L W L W W W L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U O U U U O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	@MER	L 67-78	+10.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@KENN	L 69-92	+14.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsJXST	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 18	@GASO	L 67-90	+9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	@APP	W 70-63	+7.5	W +14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@MRSH	L 80-84	+13.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 164
Jan 3	@CCU	W 89-71	+6.5	W +24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsAPP	L 50-52	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	vsMRSH	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 154
Jan 17	@ULM	W 77-57	-6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	vsUSM	W 69-62	-1.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsARST	W 82-81	+4.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 29	@UL	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	@USA	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 4	vsTROY	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsNIU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 12	@JMU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ODU	L 55-78	+3.5	L −19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 19	vsGASO	W 66-64	+1.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	vsJMU	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 24	vsCCU	L 71-76	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	vsODU	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsUL	L 75-84	-1.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

MER

L 67-78

−0.5

KENN

L 69-92

−8.5

JXST

W 77-73

+7.5

GASO

L 67-90

−13.5

APP

W 70-63

+14.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+9.5

CCU

W 89-71

+24.5

APP

L 50-52

−0.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+12.5

ULM

W 77-57

+13.5

USM

W 69-62

+5.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

−11.5

USA

L 67-69

+3.5

TROY

L 63-74

−4.5

NIU

L 74-75

−5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+3.5

ODU

L 55-78

−19.5

GASO

W 66-64

+3.5

JMU

L 65-80

−12.5

CCU

L 71-76

−3.5

ODU

L 73-81

−6.5

L 75-84

−10.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

MER

L 67-78

−10.5

KENN

L 69-92

+2.5

JXST

W 77-73

+10.5

GASO

L 67-90

−2.5

APP

W 70-63

−4.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+12.5

CCU

W 89-71

+11.5

APP

L 50-52

−38.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+0.5

ULM

W 77-57

−21.5

USM

W 69-62

−13.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

+24.5

USA

L 67-69

−4.5

TROY

L 63-74

−7.5

NIU

L 74-75

+5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+15.5

ODU

L 55-78

−14.5

GASO

W 66-64

−24.5

JMU

L 65-80

+2.5

CCU

L 71-76

+5.5

ODU

L 73-81

+4.5

L 75-84

+24.5

over 14under 16avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia St has the better starters

Position by position: Norfolk St 1, Georgia St 3, even 1

Norfolk StBetterGeorgia St

G B. Laster TR6.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 51

Even

G J. Jackson TR12.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 51

G A. Newton3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12

GASTBig

G J. Meyer TR12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 51

F J. Gupton TR7.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22

GASTSmall

G E. Parnell TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F B. Gardner TR3.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

GASTBig

F T. Dixon TR9.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 75

F J. Riley TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 56

NORFSmall

F J. Sirtautas TR5.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

Norfolk StBetterGeorgia St

NORF offense314th of 366 · -10.1

GASTSmall

GAST defense205th of 366 · -5.0

NORF defense301st of 366 · -7.7

GASTSmall

GAST offense214th of 366 · -6.5

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Even

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

GASTBig

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

NORFBig

Bench-3.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNORF betterGAST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Norfolk St

Guards

B. Laster19 min · TRA. Newton16 minA. Torrence1 minC. WalkerNewD. CamaraNewJ. SkyersNew

Forwards

J. Gupton25 min · TRB. Gardner16 min · TRJ. Riley11 min · TRM. MitchellNew

Centers

J. JordanNew

Georgia St

Guards

J. Jackson33 min · TRJ. Meyer29 min · TRE. Parnell26 min · TRZ. Wilburn17 min · TRA. Smith15 min · TRD. Thomas14 min · TR

Forwards

T. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Sirtautas20 min · TRJ. Fredson-Cole19 min · TRO. WilsonNewK. JacksonNew

Centers

M. Nicholson4 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NORF71.6 #257

GAST68.4 #307

Points per possession

NORF1.04 #274

GAST0.99 #335

Pace (possessions)

NORF69.1 #172

GAST69.1 #176

Shooting

Effective FG%

NORF49.3 #277

GAST44.2 #362

3-point %

NORF34.2 #157

GAST30.6 #329

3-point attempt rate

NORF30.6 #347

GAST42.4 #129

Free throw rate

NORF43.5 #13

GAST37.2 #124

Possessions

Turnover rate

NORF18.7 #311

GAST15.9 #132

Offensive rebound rate

NORF32.5 #108

GAST27.7 #278

Assists per game

NORF11.3 #326

GAST11.1 #334

Defense

Points allowed

NORF74.7 #181

GAST75.4 #203

Points allowed per possession

NORF1.08 #160

GAST1.09 #202

Opponent effective FG%

NORF51.7 #196

GAST50.6 #135

Opponent 3-point %

NORF32.0 #61

GAST33.1 #132

Turnovers forced

NORF18.8 #58

GAST16.4 #197

Defensive rebound rate

NORF67.7 #270

GAST66.4 #312

Steals per game

NORF6.5 #180

GAST6.7 #149

Blocks per game

NORF2.8 #264

GAST3.0 #212

NORF		GAST
Scoring
71.6 #257	Points per game	68.4 #307
1.04 #274	Points per possession	0.99 #335
69.1 #172	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #176
Shooting
49.3 #277	Effective FG%	44.2 #362
34.2 #157	3-point %	30.6 #329
30.6 #347	3-point attempt rate	42.4 #129
43.5 #13	Free throw rate	37.2 #124
Possessions
18.7 #311	Turnover rate	15.9 #132
32.5 #108	Offensive rebound rate	27.7 #278
11.3 #326	Assists per game	11.1 #334
Defense
74.7 #181	Points allowed	75.4 #203
1.08 #160	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #202
51.7 #196	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #135
32.0 #61	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #132
18.8 #58	Turnovers forced	16.4 #197
67.7 #270	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #312
6.5 #180	Steals per game	6.7 #149
2.8 #264	Blocks per game	3.0 #212

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Norfolk St

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SC State82–88
Lvs Howard76–84
L@ Morgan St84–90
W@ Coppin St75–69
Wvs SC State90–71

A week or more of rest.

Georgia St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana75–84
Lvs Old Dominion73–81
Lvs Coastal71–76
Lvs James Madison65–80
Wvs GA Southern66–64

A week or more of rest.

Norfolk State Spartans at Georgia State Panthers

What could decide it: GAST has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Norfolk St

Georgia St

Georgia St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Norfolk St

Georgia St