Norfolk State Spartans at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETMcCamish Pavilion · at Georgia Tech

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Norfolk St and Georgia Tech
NORF	This season	GT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GT 87–65 · win probability GT 97%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 152.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GT has more of the edges

NORF 1, GT 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NORF has played the 343rd-hardest schedule, GT the 78th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GTBig

GT offense vs NORF defense

Offense 71st of 366 against a defense 301st, on the model’s ratings

GTBig

NORF offense vs GT defense

Offense 314th of 366 against a defense 123rd, on the model’s ratings

NORFSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NORF 18.7%, GT 18.6%. Forced: NORF 18.8%, GT 15.6%

GTSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NORF 49.3 and allows 51.7; GT 50.0 and allows 49.9

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: NORF plays 69.1 a game (172nd fastest), GT 71.9 (38th). Faster games mean more points

GTSmall

Home court

GT at home. This season: GT 0-0 at home, NORF 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NORF 8%, GT 16%. Transfers in: NORF 4, GT 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Three-pointers

NORF hits 34.2% and allows 32.0%; GT hits 35.1% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 30.6% and 33.1% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NORF 43.5, GT 33.3. Allowed: NORF 45.3, GT 34.2

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NORF 32.5%, GT 29.9%. Defensive: NORF 67.7%, GT 69.3%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GT -22.3	—
Total	—	152.3	—
Projected score	—	NORF 65 · GT 87.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GT -13.1	—
1H total	71.2	—
1H projected score	NORF 29 · GT 42.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NORF WWLLL	13-15	46%	8-7	—
GT LWLLW	13-18	42%	5-14	—

Venue/role: NORF away; GT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NORF OOOOO	18-10	64%	11-17
GT OUUUO	18-13	58%	11-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NORF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
GT	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Norfolk St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs UNCW	W74–69WO
Nov 25	@ NCSU	No recent meeting
Nov 29	@ WASH	No recent meeting

Georgia Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs UGA	L87–92WO
Nov 24	vs SAM	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs ALCN	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Norfolk St

28 games played

Straight up

11-17

39% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-10

64% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-1739%

L L L W L L L L L W W L L L W L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

L W W L W L W L L W W L L L L L W W L L W W W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1064%

O U U U O O U O O O O O U U U O O O O O U U U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsW&M	L 78-81	+2.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 159
Nov 11	@ODU	L 57-60	+8.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 14	@TOW	L 41-51	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 21	vsHAMP	W 62-60	-2.5	L −0.5	133.5	U 122
Nov 23	@WYO	L 67-75	+15.5	W +7.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 29	@ARIZ	L 61-98	+35.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 159
Dec 6	@JMU	L 67-68	+10.5	W +9.5	138.5	U 135
Dec 10	@BAY	L 67-97	+26.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 164
Dec 18	vsGRAM	L 68-80	-1.5	L −13.5	135.5	O 148
Dec 19	vsJKST	W 82-72	-5.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 21	@UTEP	W 72-71	+10.5	W +11.5	136.5	O 143
Dec 22	vsUCI	L 70-89	+11.5	L −7.5	136.5	O 159
Dec 28	@UL	L 54-63	+3.5	L −5.5	126.5	U 117
Jan 3	@NCCU	L 67-69	-1.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 10	@DSU	W 66-64	-4.5	L −2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	vsUMES	L 70-74	-5.5	L −9.5	132.5	O 144
Jan 17	@SCST	W 89-82	-5.5	W +1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 24	vsCOPP	W 103-76	-13.5	W +13.5	143.5	O 179
Jan 26	vsMORG	L 78-79	-7.5	L −8.5	152.5	O 157
Jan 31	@HOW	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 7	vsNCCU	W 75-68	-4.5	W +2.5	148.5	U 143
Feb 14	vsDSU	W 75-58	-9.5	W +7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	@UMES	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	U 136
Feb 21	vsSCST	W 90-71	-10.5	W +8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 28	@COPP	W 75-69	-5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 2	@MORG	L 84-90	-3.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 174
Mar 5	vsHOW	L 76-84	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 12	vsSCST	L 82-88	-7.5	L −13.5	144.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

−0.5

ODU

L 57-60

+5.5

TOW

L 41-51

+3.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−0.5

WYO

L 67-75

+7.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

−1.5

JMU

L 67-68

+9.5

BAY

L 67-97

−3.5

GRAM

L 68-80

−13.5

JKST

W 82-72

+4.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+11.5

UCI

L 70-89

−7.5

L 54-63

−5.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−3.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

−9.5

SCST

W 89-82

+1.5

COPP

W 103-76

+13.5

MORG

L 78-79

−8.5

HOW

L 60-88

−20.5

NCCU

W 75-68

+2.5

DSU

W 75-58

+7.5

UMES

W 70-66

+2.5

SCST

W 90-71

+8.5

COPP

W 75-69

+0.5

MORG

L 84-90

−9.5

HOW

L 76-84

−1.5

SCST

L 82-88

−13.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W&M

L 78-81

+0.5

ODU

L 57-60

−32.5

TOW

L 41-51

−46.5

HAMP

W 62-60

−11.5

WYO

L 67-75

+0.5

ARIZ

L 61-98

+12.5

JMU

L 67-68

−3.5

BAY

L 67-97

+15.5

GRAM

L 68-80

+12.5

JKST

W 82-72

+13.5

UTEP

W 72-71

+6.5

UCI

L 70-89

+22.5

L 54-63

−9.5

NCCU

L 67-69

−5.5

DSU

W 66-64

−2.5

UMES

L 70-74

+11.5

SCST

W 89-82

+31.5

COPP

W 103-76

+35.5

MORG

L 78-79

+4.5

HOW

L 60-88

+1.5

NCCU

W 75-68

−5.5

DSU

W 75-58

−1.5

UMES

W 70-66

−0.5

SCST

W 90-71

+20.5

COPP

W 75-69

+3.5

MORG

L 84-90

+17.5

HOW

L 76-84

+10.5

SCST

L 82-88

+25.5

over 18under 10avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia Tech

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-13

58% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W W W L W W L L L W W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

L W L W L L L L L W W L W W W L W L W L W L W L L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1358%

U U U O U O U O O O O O O O U O O O U U U O O O U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUMES	W 56-52	-28.5	L −24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 7	vsBRY	W 74-45	-15.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsSELA	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UGA	L 87-92	+15.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsGASO	W 68-66	-10.5	L −8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsWGA	W 82-66	-18.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsDEP	L 61-75	+1.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsDRKE	L 74-84	-4.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsMSST	L 73-85	+1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsMONM	W 79-67	-10.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 16	vsMRST	W 87-76	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 163
Dec 20	vsLAF	W 95-81	-16.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 28	vsFAMU	W 89-65	-19.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 31	@DUKE	L 79-85	+27.5	W +21.5	153.5	O 164
Jan 3	vsBC	W 65-53	-6.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 118
Jan 6	vsSYR	L 72-82	+2.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@MIA	L 81-91	+15.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 172
Jan 14	vsPITT	L 66-89	+1.5	L −21.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 17	@NCSU	W 78-74	+17.5	W +21.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 24	vsCLEM	L 63-77	+8.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 140
Jan 27	@VT	L 65-71	+9.5	W +3.5	155.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsUNC	L 75-91	+9.5	L −6.5	160.5	O 166
Feb 4	@CAL	L 85-90	+7.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 175
Feb 7	@STAN	L 72-95	+9.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 11	vsWAKE	L 67-83	+3.5	L −12.5	158.5	U 150
Feb 14	@ND	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 18	vsUVA	L 68-94	+13.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 21	@LOU	L 70-87	+23.5	W +6.5	167.5	U 157
Feb 28	vsFSU	L 71-80	+5.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 151
Mar 4	vsCAL	L 65-76	+2.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 141
Mar 7	@CLEM	L 76-79	+15.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−24.5

BRY

W 74-45

+13.5

SELA

W 70-60

−4.5

UGA

L 87-92

+10.5

GASO

W 68-66

−8.5

WGA

W 82-66

−2.5

DEP

L 61-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 74-84

−14.5

MSST

L 73-85

−10.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+4.5

LAF

W 95-81

−2.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+4.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+21.5

W 65-53

+5.5

SYR

L 72-82

−7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+5.5

PITT

L 66-89

−21.5

NCSU

W 78-74

+21.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−5.5

L 65-71

+3.5

UNC

L 75-91

−6.5

CAL

L 85-90

+2.5

STAN

L 72-95

−13.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−12.5

L 74-89

−9.5

UVA

L 68-94

−12.5

LOU

L 70-87

+6.5

FSU

L 71-80

−3.5

CAL

L 65-76

−8.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+12.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−31.5

BRY

W 74-45

−19.5

SELA

W 70-60

−3.5

UGA

L 87-92

+23.5

GASO

W 68-66

−30.5

WGA

W 82-66

+3.5

DEP

L 61-75

−11.5

DRKE

L 74-84

+20.5

MSST

L 73-85

+7.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+21.5

LAF

W 95-81

+28.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+7.5

DUKE

L 79-85

+10.5

W 65-53

−27.5

SYR

L 72-82

+7.5

MIA

L 81-91

+15.5

PITT

L 66-89

+9.5

NCSU

W 78-74

−2.5

CLEM

L 63-77

−2.5

L 65-71

−19.5

UNC

L 75-91

+5.5

CAL

L 85-90

+22.5

STAN

L 72-95

+15.5

WAKE

L 67-83

−8.5

L 74-89

+12.5

UVA

L 68-94

+11.5

LOU

L 70-87

−10.5

FSU

L 71-80

−7.5

CAL

L 65-76

−13.5

CLEM

L 76-79

+9.5

over 18under 13avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia Tech has the better starters

Position by position: Norfolk St 0, Georgia Tech 4, even 1

Norfolk StBetterGeorgia Tech

G B. Laster TR6.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 51

GTBig

G N. Whitlock TR20.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 87

G A. Newton3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.1 ast Score 12

GTBig

G C. Garland TR20.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 98

F J. Gupton TR7.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 22

GTSmall

G K. Craft7.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43

F B. Gardner TR3.5 pts · 2.6 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

GTBig

F V. Valdes TR14.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.5 ast Score 74

F J. Riley TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 56

No call

F J. Fields TR4.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Not ranked

Norfolk StBetterGeorgia Tech

NORF offense314th of 366 · -10.1

GTBig

GT defense123rd of 366 · -2.1

NORF defense301st of 366 · -7.7

GTBig

GT offense71st of 366 · +1.7

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

GTBig

Backcourt+7.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

GTBig

Frontcourt+2.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.0 · 1 player

Even

Bench-1.0 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestNORF betterGT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Norfolk St

Guards

B. Laster19 min · TRA. Newton16 minA. Torrence1 minC. WalkerNewD. CamaraNewJ. SkyersNew

Forwards

J. Gupton25 min · TRB. Gardner16 min · TRJ. Riley11 min · TRM. MitchellNew

Centers

J. JordanNew

Georgia Tech

Guards

N. Whitlock35 min · TRC. Garland35 min · TRK. Craft21 minC. Muldrew14 min · TRK. BaileyNewK. AllenNew

Forwards

V. Valdes30 min · TRJ. Fields14 min · TRT. JordanNewM. DiopNewI. KurucsNew

Centers

C. Kirouac12 minJ. McVeyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NORF71.6 #257

GT73.8 #208

Points per possession

NORF1.04 #274

GT1.03 #292

Pace (possessions)

NORF69.1 #172

GT71.9 #38

Shooting

Effective FG%

NORF49.3 #277

GT50.0 #234

3-point %

NORF34.2 #157

GT35.1 #109

3-point attempt rate

NORF30.6 #347

GT33.1 #313

Free throw rate

NORF43.5 #13

GT33.3 #229

Possessions

Turnover rate

NORF18.7 #311

GT18.6 #306

Offensive rebound rate

NORF32.5 #108

GT29.9 #203

Assists per game

NORF11.3 #326

GT15.8 #55

Defense

Points allowed

NORF74.7 #181

GT77.4 #247

Points allowed per possession

NORF1.08 #160

GT1.08 #148

Opponent effective FG%

NORF51.7 #196

GT49.9 #94

Opponent 3-point %

NORF32.0 #61

GT33.1 #134

Turnovers forced

NORF18.8 #58

GT15.6 #244

Defensive rebound rate

NORF67.7 #270

GT69.3 #189

Steals per game

NORF6.5 #180

GT6.1 #229

Blocks per game

NORF2.8 #264

GT3.9 #80

NORF		GT
Scoring
71.6 #257	Points per game	73.8 #208
1.04 #274	Points per possession	1.03 #292
69.1 #172	Pace (possessions)	71.9 #38
Shooting
49.3 #277	Effective FG%	50.0 #234
34.2 #157	3-point %	35.1 #109
30.6 #347	3-point attempt rate	33.1 #313
43.5 #13	Free throw rate	33.3 #229
Possessions
18.7 #311	Turnover rate	18.6 #306
32.5 #108	Offensive rebound rate	29.9 #203
11.3 #326	Assists per game	15.8 #55
Defense
74.7 #181	Points allowed	77.4 #247
1.08 #160	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #148
51.7 #196	Opponent effective FG%	49.9 #94
32.0 #61	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #134
18.8 #58	Turnovers forced	15.6 #244
67.7 #270	Defensive rebound rate	69.3 #189
6.5 #180	Steals per game	6.1 #229
2.8 #264	Blocks per game	3.9 #80

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Norfolk St

11-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SC State82–88
Lvs Howard76–84
L@ Morgan St84–90
W@ Coppin St75–69
Wvs SC State90–71

A week or more of rest.

Georgia Tech

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Clemson76–79
Lvs California65–76
Lvs Florida St71–80
L@ Louisville70–87
Lvs Virginia68–94

A week or more of rest.

Norfolk State Spartans at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

What could decide it: GT has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Norfolk St

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Norfolk St

Georgia Tech