Cal State Northridge Matadors at Troy Trojans: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETTrojan Arena · at Troy

#147TROYTroy

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: CSU Northridge and Troy
CSUN	This season	TROY
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TROY 80–75 · win probability TROY 68%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TROY has more of the edges

CSUN 1, TROY 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TROYBig

TROY offense vs CSUN defense

Offense 143rd of 366 against a defense 271st, on the model’s ratings

TROYSmall

Three-pointers

CSUN hits 32.4% and allows 34.4%; TROY hits 33.0% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 33.6% and 45.9% of their shots

CSUNSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CSUN 31.9%, TROY 34.5%. Defensive: CSUN 73.4%, TROY 68.3%

Context

Tempo

About 73 possessions: CSUN plays 75.6 a game (2nd fastest), TROY 69.6 (141st). Faster games mean more points

TROYSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CSUN 34.2, TROY 36.2. Allowed: CSUN 34.3, TROY 31.4

Context

Schedule so far

CSUN has played the 219th-hardest schedule, TROY the 166th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TROYSmall

Home court

TROY at home. This season: TROY 0-0 at home, CSUN 0-0 away

TROYSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: CSUN 51.3 and allows 51.6; TROY 51.5 and allows 50.2

Even

CSUN offense vs TROY defense

Offense 140th of 366 against a defense 162nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CSUN 18%, TROY 11%. Transfers in: CSUN 7, TROY 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CSUN 17.5%, TROY 17.3%. Forced: CSUN 16.5%, TROY 16.7%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TROY -5.3	—
Total	—	154.4	—
Projected score	—	CSUN 74.6 · TROY 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TROY -3.0	—
1H total	72.2	—
1H projected score	CSUN 34.6 · TROY 37.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSUN LLLWL	14-18	44%	5-10	—
TROY WLWWL	18-14	56%	7-4	—

Venue/role: CSUN away; TROY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSUN OOUUO	19-13	59%	18-14
TROY OUOUU	14-18	44%	20-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSUN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TROY	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

CSU Northridge

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs DEL	W88–66WO
Nov 25	@ WEB	No recent meeting
Dec 3	vs CP	W97–96LO

Troy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs VAL	No recent meeting
Nov 22	vs NICH	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ UTC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CSUN 1–0 TROYCSUN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CSUN 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 16, 2025-26	TROY 85 @ CSUN 94	CSUN +4.5	CSUN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

CSU Northridge

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-13

59% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W W L W L L W W W W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L L W W W L W L L W L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1359%

U O O O U U U O O O O O O U O U O O U O U O O U O U U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@UNI	L 57-86	+9.5	L −19.5	153.5	U 143
Nov 9	@UND	W 93-85	-6.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 178
Nov 11	@NDSU	L 68-90	+4.5	L −17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	vsTROY	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 26	vsIDHO	L 64-78	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsIDST	L 50-82	+1.5	L −30.5	148.5	U 132
Dec 4	vsCSUB	W 87-66	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 153
Dec 6	@UCI	L 71-85	+7.5	L −6.5	152.5	O 156
Dec 10	vsFRES	W 89-87	-3.5	L −1.5	161.5	O 176
Dec 13	@DEL	W 88-66	+1.5	W +23.5	144.5	O 154
Dec 22	vsSAC	W 100-88	-8.5	W +3.5	164.5	O 188
Dec 27	@STAN	L 80-88	+15.5	W +7.5	160.5	O 168
Jan 1	@UCD	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	162.5	O 169
Jan 3	vsUCSB	W 74-65	-2.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 139
Jan 8	vsCP	W 95-90	-6.5	L −1.5	175.5	O 185
Jan 10	@CSUF	L 79-86	+1.5	L −5.5	173.5	U 165
Jan 15	@UCSD	W 84-79	+7.5	W +12.5	159.5	O 163
Jan 17	vsLBSU	L 80-87	-7.5	L −14.5	158.5	O 167
Jan 24	@HAW	L 68-89	+10.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 157
Jan 29	vsUCD	W 94-78	-3.5	W +12.5	163.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsUCSD	W 81-64	+1.5	W +18.5	160.5	U 145
Feb 5	@CP	W 97-96	-2.5	L −1.5	177.5	O 193
Feb 7	vsUCR	W 88-74	-10.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 162
Feb 14	vsHAW	W 84-60	+2.5	W +26.5	162.5	U 144
Feb 19	@UCSB	W 85-83	+5.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 168
Feb 21	@LBSU	W 78-76	-2.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 154
Feb 26	vsUCI	L 67-68	-1.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 135
Feb 28	@UCR	L 84-95	-4.5	L −15.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 5	@CSUB	W 86-84	-8.5	L −6.5	163.5	O 170
Mar 7	vsCSUF	L 77-90	-5.5	L −18.5	170.5	U 167
Mar 12	vsUCSD	W 80-70	+1.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 150
Mar 13	vsUCI	L 78-93	+3.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−19.5

UND

W 93-85

+1.5

NDSU

L 68-90

−17.5

TROY

W 94-85

+13.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−12.5

IDST

L 50-82

−30.5

CSUB

W 87-66

+15.5

UCI

L 71-85

−6.5

FRES

W 89-87

−1.5

DEL

W 88-66

+23.5

SAC

W 100-88

+3.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

−5.5

UCSB

W 74-65

+6.5

W 95-90

−1.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−5.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+12.5

LBSU

L 80-87

−14.5

HAW

L 68-89

−10.5

UCD

W 94-78

+12.5

UCSD

W 81-64

+18.5

W 97-96

−1.5

UCR

W 88-74

+3.5

HAW

W 84-60

+26.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+7.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−0.5

UCI

L 67-68

−2.5

UCR

L 84-95

−15.5

CSUB

W 86-84

−6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−18.5

UCSD

W 80-70

+11.5

UCI

L 78-93

−11.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNI

L 57-86

−10.5

UND

W 93-85

+19.5

NDSU

L 68-90

+1.5

TROY

W 94-85

+21.5

IDHO

L 64-78

−17.5

IDST

L 50-82

−16.5

CSUB

W 87-66

−2.5

UCI

L 71-85

+3.5

FRES

W 89-87

+14.5

DEL

W 88-66

+9.5

SAC

W 100-88

+23.5

STAN

L 80-88

+7.5

UCD

L 80-89

+6.5

UCSB

W 74-65

−17.5

W 95-90

+9.5

CSUF

L 79-86

−8.5

UCSD

W 84-79

+3.5

LBSU

L 80-87

+8.5

HAW

L 68-89

−1.5

UCD

W 94-78

+8.5

UCSD

W 81-64

−15.5

W 97-96

+15.5

UCR

W 88-74

+1.5

HAW

W 84-60

−18.5

UCSB

W 85-83

+11.5

LBSU

W 78-76

−3.5

UCI

L 67-68

−18.5

UCR

L 84-95

+20.5

CSUB

W 86-84

+6.5

CSUF

L 77-90

−3.5

UCSD

W 80-70

−3.5

UCI

L 78-93

+18.5

over 19under 13avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Troy

32 games played

Straight up

20-12

63% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1263%

W W L L W L L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L W W L L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1456%

W W L L W W L L L W W W W L W W W W W L L W W L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O U U O O O U U O O U O U U O O O O O U U U U U U U U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@KENT	W 103-97	+3.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 200
Nov 7	@FUR	W 64-61	+2.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 125
Nov 14	@LMU	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 137
Nov 16	@CSUN	L 85-94	-4.5	L −13.5	157.5	O 179
Nov 18	@SDSU	W 108-107	+14.5	W +15.5	137.5	O 215
Nov 20	@USC	L 106-107	+18.5	W +17.5	159.5	O 213
Nov 24	vsTOL	L 68-75	-2.5	L −9.5	159.5	U 143
Nov 26	vsSFPA	W 74-64	-21.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 138
Dec 1	vsWGA	L 89-93	-17.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 182
Dec 14	@UAB	W 86-85	+6.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsMRSH	W 70-63	-4.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 133
Dec 31	vsTXST	W 100-80	-8.5	W +11.5	145.5	O 180
Jan 3	vsUSA	W 59-49	-9.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 108
Jan 7	@ARST	L 74-86	+4.5	L −7.5	160.5	U 160
Jan 10	@UL	W 90-70	-9.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 14	vsUSM	W 91-65	-8.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 156
Jan 17	vsARST	W 99-74	-3.5	W +21.5	165.5	O 173
Jan 21	@ODU	W 83-77	-5.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 24	@GASO	W 83-78	-4.5	W +0.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 29	vsJMU	L 64-73	-9.5	L −18.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 31	vsAPP	L 44-66	-7.5	L −29.5	137.5	U 110
Feb 4	@GAST	W 74-63	-6.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsAKR	W 79-69	+2.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 148
Feb 11	@TXST	L 62-74	-5.5	L −17.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 14	@USM	L 65-69	-5.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 18	@ULM	W 77-76	-17.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 21	@USA	L 54-65	-2.5	L −13.5	142.5	U 119
Feb 24	vsUL	W 78-59	-11.5	W +7.5	134.5	O 137
Feb 27	vsULM	W 80-65	-18.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 145
Mar 8	vsUSM	W 78-70	-5.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 148
Mar 9	vsGASO	W 77-61	-5.5	W +10.5	152.5	U 138
Mar 19	vsNEB	L 47-76	+13.5	L −15.5	139.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+9.5

FUR

W 64-61

+5.5

LMU

L 63-74

−6.5

CSUN

L 85-94

−13.5

SDSU

W 108-107

+15.5

USC

L 106-107

+17.5

TOL

L 68-75

−9.5

SFPA

W 74-64

−11.5

WGA

L 89-93

−21.5

UAB

W 86-85

+7.5

MRSH

W 70-63

+2.5

TXST

W 100-80

+11.5

USA

W 59-49

+0.5

ARST

L 74-86

−7.5

W 90-70

+10.5

USM

W 91-65

+17.5

ARST

W 99-74

+21.5

ODU

W 83-77

+0.5

GASO

W 83-78

+0.5

JMU

L 64-73

−18.5

APP

L 44-66

−29.5

GAST

W 74-63

+4.5

AKR

W 79-69

+12.5

TXST

L 62-74

−17.5

USM

L 65-69

−9.5

ULM

W 77-76

−16.5

USA

L 54-65

−13.5

W 78-59

+7.5

ULM

W 80-65

−3.5

USM

W 78-70

+2.5

GASO

W 77-61

+10.5

NEB

L 47-76

−15.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KENT

W 103-97

+57.5

FUR

W 64-61

−27.5

LMU

L 63-74

−3.5

CSUN

L 85-94

+21.5

SDSU

W 108-107

+77.5

USC

L 106-107

+53.5

TOL

L 68-75

−16.5

SFPA

W 74-64

−13.5

WGA

L 89-93

+31.5

UAB

W 86-85

+15.5

MRSH

W 70-63

−22.5

TXST

W 100-80

+34.5

USA

W 59-49

−40.5

ARST

L 74-86

−0.5

W 90-70

+23.5

USM

W 91-65

+10.5

ARST

W 99-74

+7.5

ODU

W 83-77

+7.5

GASO

W 83-78

+1.5

JMU

L 64-73

−10.5

APP

L 44-66

−27.5

GAST

W 74-63

−7.5

AKR

W 79-69

−9.5

TXST

L 62-74

−4.5

USM

L 65-69

−10.5

ULM

W 77-76

−0.5

USA

L 54-65

−23.5

W 78-59

+2.5

ULM

W 80-65

−8.5

USM

W 78-70

+5.5

GASO

W 77-61

−14.5

NEB

L 47-76

−16.5

over 14under 18avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Troy has the better starters

Position by position: CSU Northridge 1, Troy 2, even 2

CSU NorthridgeBetterTroy

G J. Davis16.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 7.5 ast Score 71

CSUNBig

G R. Davis TR9.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 14

G C. Smith TR7.1 pts · 7.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 36

TROYBig

G D. Oday TR18.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 95

G M. Ballew TR8.3 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 19

TROYBig

G J. Hutchinson TR12.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 76

G B. Hicks TR8.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 49

Even

F C. Diggs TR10.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59

G K. Ekissi TR4.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 29

Even

F K. Kiel3.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 1 ast Score 23

CSU NorthridgeBetterTroy

CSUN offense140th of 366 · -4.2

Even

TROY defense162nd of 366 · -3.6

CSUN defense271st of 366 · -6.8

TROYBig

TROY offense143rd of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt-4.7 · 5 players

TROYBig

Backcourt+1.4 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 4 players

Even

Bench-2.0 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCSUN betterTROY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

CSU Northridge

Guards

J. Davis34 minC. Smith30 min · TRM. Ballew23 min · TRB. Hicks22 min · TRK. Ekissi17 min · TRG. Gazarian2 min

Forwards

J. Martin7 min · TRB. OmotNew

Centers

E. Stephen15 min · TRL. Niang8 min · TR

Troy

Guards

R. Davis31 min · TRD. Oday30 min · TRJ. Hutchinson29 min · TRH. Awata2 minJ. KontuniemiNewR. ValakouNew

Forwards

C. Diggs23 min · TRK. Kiel16 minM. Ikegwuruka13 min · TRS. Walters9 min · TRE. Griffin5 min

Centers

A. PachecoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CSUN80.6 #54

TROY77.3 #110

Points per possession

CSUN1.06 #219

TROY1.11 #113

Pace (possessions)

CSUN75.6 #2

TROY69.6 #141

Shooting

Effective FG%

CSUN51.3 #183

TROY51.5 #171

3-point %

CSUN32.4 #260

TROY33.0 #229

3-point attempt rate

CSUN33.6 #308

TROY45.9 #47

Free throw rate

CSUN34.2 #200

TROY36.2 #147

Possessions

Turnover rate

CSUN17.5 #237

TROY17.3 #226

Offensive rebound rate

CSUN31.9 #130

TROY34.5 #59

Assists per game

CSUN16.7 #31

TROY15.0 #86

Defense

Points allowed

CSUN81.3 #336

TROY74.5 #178

Points allowed per possession

CSUN1.08 #153

TROY1.07 #128

Opponent effective FG%

CSUN51.6 #191

TROY50.2 #111

Opponent 3-point %

CSUN34.4 #210

TROY31.6 #47

Turnovers forced

CSUN16.5 #187

TROY16.7 #173

Defensive rebound rate

CSUN73.4 #26

TROY68.3 #243

Steals per game

CSUN6.6 #166

TROY7.2 #107

Blocks per game

CSUN2.8 #259

TROY3.3 #169

CSUN		TROY
Scoring
80.6 #54	Points per game	77.3 #110
1.06 #219	Points per possession	1.11 #113
75.6 #2	Pace (possessions)	69.6 #141
Shooting
51.3 #183	Effective FG%	51.5 #171
32.4 #260	3-point %	33.0 #229
33.6 #308	3-point attempt rate	45.9 #47
34.2 #200	Free throw rate	36.2 #147
Possessions
17.5 #237	Turnover rate	17.3 #226
31.9 #130	Offensive rebound rate	34.5 #59
16.7 #31	Assists per game	15.0 #86
Defense
81.3 #336	Points allowed	74.5 #178
1.08 #153	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #128
51.6 #191	Opponent effective FG%	50.2 #111
34.4 #210	Opponent 3-point %	31.6 #47
16.5 #187	Turnovers forced	16.7 #173
73.4 #26	Defensive rebound rate	68.3 #243
6.6 #166	Steals per game	7.2 #107
2.8 #259	Blocks per game	3.3 #169

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

CSU Northridge

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UC Irvine78–93
Wvs UC San Diego80–70
Lvs Fullerton77–90
W@ Bakersfield86–84
L@ UC Riverside84–95

A week or more of rest.

Troy

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Nebraska47–76
Wvs GA Southern77–61
Wvs Southern Miss78–70
Wvs UL Monroe80–65
Wvs Louisiana78–59

A week or more of rest.

Cal State Northridge Matadors at Troy Trojans

What could decide it: TROY has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

CSU Northridge

Troy

Troy has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

CSU Northridge

Troy