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  2. Sun, Nov 22
  3. TROY vs NICH
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 22

Troy Trojans vs Nicholls Colonels

Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site
#147TROYTroy
vs
#285NICHNicholls
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
TROYThis seasonNICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TROY 78–71 · win probability TROY 73%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 148.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TROY has more of the edges

TROY 6, NICH 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TROYBig
TROY offense vs NICH defense
Offense 143rd of 366 against a defense 282nd, on the model’s ratings
TROYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: TROY 34.5%, NICH 28.1%. Defensive: TROY 68.3%, NICH 66.3%
TROYBig
NICH offense vs TROY defense
Offense 283rd of 366 against a defense 162nd, on the model’s ratings
TROYBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: TROY 51.5 and allows 50.2; NICH 50.6 and allows 54.4
Context
Schedule so far
TROY has played the 166th-hardest schedule, NICH the 277th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TROYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: TROY 36.2, NICH 34.5. Allowed: TROY 31.4, NICH 37.9
TROYSmall
Three-pointers
TROY hits 33.0% and allows 31.6%; NICH hits 33.3% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 45.9% and 43.9% of their shots
NICHSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: TROY 17.3%, NICH 17.4%. Forced: TROY 16.7%, NICH 20.5%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: TROY plays 69.6 a game (141st fastest), NICH 68.3 (210th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: TROY 11%, NICH 20%. Transfers in: TROY 6, NICH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TROY -6.9—
Total—148.5—
Projected score—TROY 77.7 · NICH 70.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTROY -4.2—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreTROY 36.8 · NICH 32.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Troy has the better starters

Position by position: Troy 2, Nicholls 1, even 2
TroyBetterNicholls
G R. Davis TR9.9 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 14
NICHBig
G D. Cockrill TR11.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 75
G D. Oday TR18.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 95
TROYBig
G C. Winborne7.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 29
G J. Hutchinson TR12.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 76
TROYBig
G S. Sharp4.1 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 19
F C. Diggs TR10.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 59
No call
F A. Dent TR6 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
F K. Kiel3.6 pts · 3.5 reb · 1 ast Score 23
No call
F J. Sileu TR0.3 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
TroyBetterNicholls
TROY offense143rd of 366 · -4.3
TROYBig
NICH defense282nd of 366 · -7.0
TROY defense162nd of 366 · -3.6
TROYSmall
NICH offense283rd of 366 · -8.7
Backcourt+1.4 · 3 players
TROYBig
Backcourt-2.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players
Bench-2.0 · 4 players
NICHSmall
Bench-0.3 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestTROY betterNICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Troy
Guards
R. Davis31 min · TRD. Oday30 min · TRJ. Hutchinson29 min · TRH. Awata2 minJ. KontuniemiNewR. ValakouNew
Forwards
C. Diggs23 min · TRK. Kiel16 minM. Ikegwuruka13 min · TRS. Walters9 min · TRE. Griffin5 min
Centers
A. PachecoNew
Nicholls
Guards
D. Cockrill24 min · TRC. Winborne23 minS. Sharp17 minH. Carter4 min · TRC. Simpson3 min · TRJ. Matthews2 min
Forwards
A. Dent13 min · TRJ. Sileu7 min · TRA. Arop2 min · TRM. MboupNewJ. TaylorNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
TROYNICH
Scoring
77.3 #110Points per game71.0 #266
1.11 #113Points per possession1.04 #275
69.6 #141Pace (possessions)68.3 #210
Shooting
51.5 #171Effective FG%50.6 #205
33.0 #2293-point %33.3 #215
45.9 #473-point attempt rate43.9 #90
36.2 #147Free throw rate34.5 #195
Possessions
17.3 #226Turnover rate17.4 #232
34.5 #59Offensive rebound rate28.1 #263
15.0 #86Assists per game12.9 #219
Defense
74.5 #178Points allowed75.7 #209
1.07 #128Points allowed per possession1.11 #243
50.2 #111Opponent effective FG%54.4 #311
31.6 #47Opponent 3-point %34.6 #224
16.7 #173Turnovers forced20.5 #15
68.3 #243Defensive rebound rate66.3 #314
7.2 #107Steals per game8.7 #15
3.3 #169Blocks per game2.8 #270
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Troy

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Nebraska47–76
  • Wvs GA Southern77–61
  • Wvs Southern Miss78–70
  • Wvs UL Monroe80–65
  • Wvs Louisiana78–59

A week or more of rest.

Nicholls

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UT Rio Grande68–86
  • Wvs N'Western St61–47
  • Lvs McNeese65–75
  • Wvs SE Louisiana68–60
  • W@ Lamar53–52

A week or more of rest.