1. NCAAB
  2. Sun, Nov 29
  3. NICH @ TXST
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 29

Nicholls Colonels at Texas State Bobcats

Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St
#285NICHNicholls
@
#103TXSTTexas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NICHThis seasonTXST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 82–67 · win probability TXST 90%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

NICH 2, TXST 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TXSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NICH 28.1%, TXST 33.9%. Defensive: NICH 66.3%, TXST 71.6%
TXSTBig
TXST offense vs NICH defense
Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 282nd, on the model’s ratings
TXSTBig
NICH offense vs TXST defense
Offense 283rd of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings
TXSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NICH 20%, TXST 69%. Transfers in: NICH 6, TXST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
NICHSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NICH 17.4%, TXST 18.7%. Forced: NICH 20.5%, TXST 18.5%
NICHSmall
Three-pointers
NICH hits 33.3% and allows 34.6%; TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 43.9% and 24.6% of their shots
TXSTSmall
Home court
TXST at home. This season: TXST 0-0 at home, NICH 0-0 away
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NICH 50.6 and allows 54.4; TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NICH 34.5, TXST 34.0. Allowed: NICH 37.9, TXST 39.0
Context
Schedule so far
NICH has played the 277th-hardest schedule, TXST the 298th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: NICH plays 68.3 a game (210th fastest), TXST 68.2 (223rd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TXST -14.4—
Total—148.5—
Projected score—NICH 67 · TXST 81.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTXST -8.5—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreNICH 30.5 · TXST 38.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: Nicholls 1, Texas St 2, even 2
NichollsBetterTexas St
G D. Cockrill TR11.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 75
NICHSmall
G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56
G C. Winborne7.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 29
TXSTBig
G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84
G S. Sharp4.1 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 19
TXSTBig
G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
F A. Dent TR6 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94
F J. Sileu TR0.3 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
NichollsBetterTexas St
NICH offense283rd of 366 · -8.7
TXSTBig
TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4
NICH defense282nd of 366 · -7.0
TXSTBig
TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4
Backcourt-2.5 · 3 players
TXSTBig
Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players
TXSTBig
Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.3 · 4 players
Even
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNICH betterTXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Nicholls
Guards
D. Cockrill24 min · TRC. Winborne23 minS. Sharp17 minH. Carter4 min · TRC. Simpson3 min · TRJ. Matthews2 min
Forwards
A. Dent13 min · TRJ. Sileu7 min · TRA. Arop2 min · TRM. MboupNewJ. TaylorNew
Texas St
Guards
M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR
Forwards
D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew
Centers
R. Fields16 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NICHTXST
Scoring
71.0 #266Points per game71.9 #247
1.04 #275Points per possession1.06 #230
68.3 #210Pace (possessions)68.2 #223
Shooting
50.6 #205Effective FG%50.0 #238
33.3 #2153-point %32.2 #271
43.9 #903-point attempt rate24.6 #364
34.5 #195Free throw rate34.0 #211
Possessions
17.4 #232Turnover rate18.7 #309
28.1 #263Offensive rebound rate33.9 #68
12.9 #219Assists per game12.7 #239
Defense
75.7 #209Points allowed72.5 #117
1.11 #243Points allowed per possession1.06 #106
54.4 #311Opponent effective FG%52.0 #210
34.6 #224Opponent 3-point %35.7 #293
20.5 #15Turnovers forced18.5 #75
66.3 #314Defensive rebound rate71.6 #81
8.7 #15Steals per game7.9 #41
2.8 #270Blocks per game3.6 #120
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nicholls

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UT Rio Grande68–86
  • Wvs N'Western St61–47
  • Lvs McNeese65–75
  • Wvs SE Louisiana68–60
  • W@ Lamar53–52

A week or more of rest.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss77–81
  • Wvs App State60–57
  • L@ Louisiana54–67
  • W@ South Alabama90–82
  • Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.