Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs Texas State Bobcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 2:00 PM ETResorts World Event Center · Neutral site

#216LEHLehigh78▲ winner

Final

#103TXSTTexas St74final

Closing lineTXST -6.5✓ LEH covered by 10.5

Closing total135.5Over by 16.5

Season records: Lehigh and Texas St
LEH	This season	TXST
1-6	Record	4-3
4-3	ATS	5-2
3-4	O/U	2-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LEH 67–70 TXST · ✗ TXST (61%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
LEH	34	32	12	78
TXST	34	32	8	74

1st half: LEH 34, TXST 34 (tied). The model had TXST by 1.7 and a total of 64.4 (actual 68).

Team stats

LEH		TXST
29-58 50%	Field goals	27-62 44%
13-25 52%	3-pointers	2-6 33%
7-12 58%	Free throws	18-23 78%
27 7 off	Rebounds	40 16 off
17	Assists	11
8	Steals	9
5	Blocks	7
13	Turnovers	14
19	Fouls	13
28	Points in paint	32
13	Fast-break points	5

Players

LEH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nasir Whitlock G	38	31	0	2	11-19	5-8
Joshua Ingram G	36	11	4	2	5-9	1-3
Caleb Thomas G	31	10	1	4	3-7	1-2
Hank Alvey C	30	8	5	3	4-8	0-1
Peter Kramer G	25	9	4	2	3-6	3-5
Bench
Jake Pike F	24	3	7	0	1-2	1-1
Jalen Vazquez G	15	0	2	2	0-2	0-0
Alfredo Addesa F	12	0	1	2	0-1	0-1
Andrew Urosevic G	12	6	0	0	2-4	2-4
Henri Adiassa C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Edouard Benoit, Tommy Conniff, Bube Momah, Brendan Reed, Caesar Burrows

TXST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
DJ Hall F	41	23	12	3	9-11	0-0
Mark Drone G	35	15	3	2	6-14	0-0
Kaden Gumbs G	34	11	4	3	4-10	0-0
Franck Emmou G	32	2	5	2	1-5	0-0
Makai Willis C	11	3	1	0	1-3	0-1
Bench
Dimp Pernell G	21	6	2	1	2-8	1-3
Robert Fields C	18	3	1	0	1-4	0-0
Tay Knox C	16	2	4	0	0-0	0-0
Ky Pernell G	11	9	2	0	3-6	1-2
Kyndall Davis G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jalen Bolden G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Cameron Simpson, Jaelyn Lee, Deke Thompson, Isaiah Barganier

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TXST -6.5	TXST -3.1	LEH +3.4	W LEH covered
Total	135.5	137.3	Over 1.8	W Over
Projected score	—	LEH 67.1 · TXST 70.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TXST -1.7	PK
1H total	64.4	68
1H projected score	LEH 31.3 · TXST 33	LEH 34 · TXST 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LEH WWLLW	4-3	57%	1-0	3-3
TXST WWWWL	5-2	71%	0-1	4-0

Venue/role: LEH neutral site, as underdog; TXST neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LEH OUOOU	3-4	43%	1-6
TXST OUUUU	2-5	29%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LEHlast 7	1-6 14%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%
TXSTlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lehigh

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

U U O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOU	L 57-75	+36.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 9	@WVU	L 47-69	+17.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 14	@RUTG	L 72-84	+18.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 156
Nov 18	vsSFPA	W 79-62	-10.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsCOLU	L 67-82	+2.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 149
Nov 25	@MRST	L 55-78	+7.5	L −15.5	132.5	O 133
Nov 28	vsUCSB	L 70-72	+10.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 57-75

+18.5

WVU

L 47-69

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-84

+6.5

SFPA

W 79-62

+6.5

COLU

L 67-82

−12.5

MRST

L 55-78

−15.5

UCSB

L 70-72

+8.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 57-75

−4.5

WVU

L 47-69

−23.5

RUTG

L 72-84

+19.5

SFPA

W 79-62

−10.5

COLU

L 67-82

+5.5

MRST

L 55-78

+0.5

UCSB

L 70-72

−4.5

over 3under 4avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas St

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-271%

L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BGSU	L 48-83	+5.5	L −29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 8	@TULN	L 71-79	+12.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 12	vsUTSA	W 80-69	-2.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 15	vsTXSO	W 77-67	-4.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 144
Nov 18	vsACU	W 63-49	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 112
Nov 21	vsLR	W 65-56	-5.5	W +3.5	131.5	U 121
Nov 28	vsSEA	L 52-66	+7.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−29.5

TULN

L 71-79

+4.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+8.5

TXSO

W 77-67

+5.5

ACU

W 63-49

+12.5

W 65-56

+3.5

SEA

L 52-66

−6.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BGSU

L 48-83

−15.5

TULN

L 71-79

+3.5

UTSA

W 80-69

+1.5

TXSO

W 77-67

−0.5

ACU

W 63-49

−26.5

W 65-56

−10.5

SEA

L 52-66

−18.5

over 2under 5avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lehigh vs Texas St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Lehigh

Texas St

Lehigh

Texas St