UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at Nicholls Colonels: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Dec 3, 12:00 AM ETDavid R. Stopher Gymnasium · at Nicholls · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: UT Rio Grande and Nicholls
RGV	This season	NICH
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NICH 74–72 · win probability NICH 57%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NICH has more of the edges

RGV 2, NICH 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RGVBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: RGV 54.8 and allows 47.8; NICH 50.6 and allows 54.4

RGVBig

Three-pointers

RGV hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%; NICH hits 33.3% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 43.7% and 43.9% of their shots

NICHBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RGV 18.5%, NICH 17.4%. Forced: RGV 16.2%, NICH 20.5%

NICHSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: RGV 28.9, NICH 34.5. Allowed: RGV 39.0, NICH 37.9

NICHSmall

Home court

NICH at home. This season: NICH 0-0 at home, RGV 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: RGV plays 67.3 a game (268th fastest), NICH 68.3 (210th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RGV 28.2%, NICH 28.1%. Defensive: RGV 67.9%, NICH 66.3%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RGV 9%, NICH 20%. Transfers in: RGV 3, NICH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

NICH offense vs RGV defense

Offense 283rd of 366 against a defense 265th, on the model’s ratings

Even

RGV offense vs NICH defense

Offense 297th of 366 against a defense 282nd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

RGV has played the 274th-hardest schedule, NICH the 277th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NICH -1.9	—
Total	—	146.0	—
Projected score	—	RGV 72 · NICH 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NICH -1.0	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	RGV 33.6 · NICH 34.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RGV WLWWW	18-13	58%	11-5	—
NICH WWLWL	15-17	47%	4-7	—

Venue/role: RGV away; NICH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RGV UUUOO	13-18	42%	17-14
NICH UUUUO	17-15	53%	13-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RGV	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
NICH	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UT Rio Grande

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	@ NOLA	W95–76WO
Dec 8	@ TXST	No recent meeting
Dec 15	@ DAY	No recent meeting

Nicholls

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 5	vs AMCC	L76–83LO
Dec 10	@ RICE	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

RGV 2–3 NICHNICH leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · RGV has won the last 2 meetings · RGV 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 9, 2025-26	NICH 68 vs RGV 86	RGV -5.5	RGV W
Feb 9, 2025-26	RGV 92 @ NICH 72	NICH +3.5	RGV W
Dec 31, 2025-26	NICH 71 @ RGV 69	RGV -3.5	NICH W
Feb 22, 2024-25	RGV 84 @ NICH 93	NICH -5.5	NICH W
Jan 27, 2024-25	NICH 82 @ RGV 75	RGV -2.5	NICH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UT Rio Grande

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg +4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-18

42% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L W L L L L W L W L L L W L L W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

W W L L W L W L W L L L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1842%

O O U U U U U U O O U U O O U O U U U O U O O U U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BAY	L 81-96	+24.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 8	@SUU	W 95-72	-1.5	W +21.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 11	@BOIS	L 65-85	+16.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 150
Nov 22	@MOST	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 24	@ILL	L 73-87	+33.5	W +19.5	164.5	U 160
Dec 3	@SFA	L 60-73	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	U 133
Dec 7	vsAPSU	W 63-50	-2.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 113
Dec 11	vsUTA	L 50-58	-4.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 108
Dec 16	@LAM	W 83-72	+3.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 155
Dec 29	vsNOLA	L 69-85	-6.5	L −22.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 31	vsNICH	L 69-71	-3.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsAMCC	L 59-63	-2.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 122
Jan 5	vsUIW	W 80-67	-1.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 147
Jan 10	@ETAM	L 69-77	-3.5	L −11.5	145.5	O 146
Jan 12	@NWST	L 63-64	-2.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 127
Jan 17	vsMCN	W 79-76	+9.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 19	vsSELA	W 68-65	-5.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 133
Jan 24	@HCU	W 68-51	-2.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 26	@AMCC	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	135.5	U 119
Jan 31	@UIW	W 106-93	-1.5	W +11.5	140.5	O 199
Feb 2	vsHCU	W 74-57	-9.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 7	@NOLA	W 95-76	-1.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 171
Feb 9	@NICH	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 164
Feb 14	vsSFA	L 57-66	+1.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 123
Feb 16	vsLAM	W 70-65	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 135
Feb 21	@SELA	W 96-75	-4.5	W +16.5	138.5	O 171
Feb 23	@MCN	L 68-75	+11.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 143
Feb 28	vsETAM	W 63-55	-10.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 118
Mar 2	vsNWST	W 74-62	-9.5	W +2.5	139.5	U 136
Mar 9	vsNICH	W 86-68	-5.5	W +12.5	143.5	O 154
Mar 10	vsMCN	L 80-84	+8.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BAY

L 81-96

+9.5

SUU

W 95-72

+21.5

BOIS

L 65-85

−3.5

MOST

L 67-74

−3.5

ILL

L 73-87

+19.5

SFA

L 60-73

−6.5

APSU

W 63-50

+10.5

UTA

L 50-58

−12.5

LAM

W 83-72

+14.5

NOLA

L 69-85

−22.5

NICH

L 69-71

−5.5

AMCC

L 59-63

−6.5

UIW

W 80-67

+11.5

ETAM

L 69-77

−11.5

NWST

L 63-64

−3.5

MCN

W 79-76

+12.5

SELA

W 68-65

−2.5

HCU

W 68-51

+14.5

AMCC

W 64-55

+11.5

UIW

W 106-93

+11.5

HCU

W 74-57

+7.5

NOLA

W 95-76

+17.5

NICH

W 92-72

+16.5

SFA

L 57-66

−7.5

LAM

W 70-65

−1.5

SELA

W 96-75

+16.5

MCN

L 68-75

+4.5

ETAM

W 63-55

−2.5

NWST

W 74-62

+2.5

NICH

W 86-68

+12.5

MCN

L 80-84

+4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BAY

L 81-96

+22.5

SUU

W 95-72

+6.5

BOIS

L 65-85

−11.5

MOST

L 67-74

−8.5

ILL

L 73-87

−4.5

SFA

L 60-73

−10.5

APSU

W 63-50

−38.5

UTA

L 50-58

−37.5

LAM

W 83-72

+15.5

NOLA

L 69-85

+1.5

NICH

L 69-71

−5.5

AMCC

L 59-63

−15.5

UIW

W 80-67

+0.5

ETAM

L 69-77

+0.5

NWST

L 63-64

−16.5

MCN

W 79-76

+8.5

SELA

W 68-65

−2.5

HCU

W 68-51

−21.5

AMCC

W 64-55

−16.5

UIW

W 106-93

+58.5

HCU

W 74-57

−10.5

NOLA

W 95-76

+19.5

NICH

W 92-72

+16.5

SFA

L 57-66

−21.5

LAM

W 70-65

−6.5

SELA

W 96-75

+32.5

MCN

L 68-75

−3.5

ETAM

W 63-55

−28.5

NWST

W 74-62

−3.5

NICH

W 86-68

+10.5

MCN

L 80-84

+23.5

over 13under 18avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Nicholls

32 games played

Straight up

13-19

41% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1941%

L L L L L L L W W L W W W W W L L L L L W W L L W L L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L W L L W W L W W W L W L L L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O O O U O O O U U O O O O U U U U U O O O O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@UK	L 51-77	+31.5	W +5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	@EIU	L 57-65	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 122
Nov 12	@VAL	L 63-68	+2.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 15	@MUR	L 79-99	+14.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 22	@OKST	L 81-95	+23.5	W +9.5	155.5	O 176
Nov 28	@TULN	L 72-82	+8.5	L −1.5	148.5	O 154
Dec 2	@CREI	L 76-96	+18.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 172
Dec 6	vsUIW	W 74-67	+1.5	W +8.5	145.5	U 141
Dec 17	vsHCU	W 79-64	-3.5	W +11.5	137.5	O 143
Dec 21	@PAC	L 82-95	+8.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 177
Dec 29	@AMCC	W 76-71	+5.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 147
Dec 31	@RGV	W 71-69	+3.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 140
Jan 3	vsETAM	W 80-58	-6.5	W +15.5	146.5	U 138
Jan 5	vsNWST	W 74-72	-8.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 146
Jan 10	@NOLA	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 12	@MCN	L 68-94	+15.5	L −10.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 17	vsLAM	L 80-90	-3.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 170
Jan 19	vsSFA	L 62-79	+4.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 141
Jan 24	@SELA	L 61-67	+2.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 128
Jan 27	vsNOLA	L 62-80	-4.5	L −22.5	157.5	U 142
Jan 31	@ETAM	W 72-68	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 140
Feb 2	@NWST	W 61-58	-1.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 119
Feb 7	vsAMCC	L 76-83	-1.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 159
Feb 9	vsRGV	L 72-92	+3.5	L −16.5	147.5	O 164
Feb 14	@UIW	W 91-83	+2.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 174
Feb 16	@HCU	L 68-72	+1.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 140
Feb 21	@SFA	L 78-81	+12.5	W +9.5	147.5	O 159
Feb 23	@LAM	W 53-52	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 105
Feb 28	vsSELA	W 68-60	-4.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 128
Mar 2	vsMCN	L 65-75	+9.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 140
Mar 8	vsNWST	W 61-47	-1.5	W +12.5	138.5	U 108
Mar 9	vsRGV	L 68-86	+5.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-77

+5.5

EIU

L 57-65

−10.5

VAL

L 63-68

−2.5

MUR

L 79-99

−5.5

OKST

L 81-95

+9.5

TULN

L 72-82

−1.5

CREI

L 76-96

−1.5

UIW

W 74-67

+8.5

HCU

W 79-64

+11.5

PAC

L 82-95

−4.5

AMCC

W 76-71

+10.5

RGV

W 71-69

+5.5

ETAM

W 80-58

+15.5

NWST

W 74-72

−6.5

NOLA

W 90-77

+9.5

MCN

L 68-94

−10.5

LAM

L 80-90

−13.5

SFA

L 62-79

−12.5

SELA

L 61-67

−3.5

NOLA

L 62-80

−22.5

ETAM

W 72-68

+5.5

NWST

W 61-58

+1.5

AMCC

L 76-83

−8.5

RGV

L 72-92

−16.5

UIW

W 91-83

+10.5

HCU

L 68-72

−2.5

SFA

L 78-81

+9.5

LAM

W 53-52

+4.5

SELA

W 68-60

+3.5

MCN

L 65-75

−0.5

NWST

W 61-47

+12.5

RGV

L 68-86

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-77

−29.5

EIU

L 57-65

−13.5

VAL

L 63-68

−13.5

MUR

L 79-99

+20.5

OKST

L 81-95

+20.5

TULN

L 72-82

+5.5

CREI

L 76-96

+28.5

UIW

W 74-67

−4.5

HCU

W 79-64

+5.5

PAC

L 82-95

+37.5

AMCC

W 76-71

+9.5

RGV

W 71-69

−5.5

ETAM

W 80-58

−8.5

NWST

W 74-72

+1.5

NOLA

W 90-77

+12.5

MCN

L 68-94

+15.5

LAM

L 80-90

+30.5

SFA

L 62-79

−3.5

SELA

L 61-67

−13.5

NOLA

L 62-80

−15.5

ETAM

W 72-68

−6.5

NWST

W 61-58

−28.5

AMCC

L 76-83

+21.5

RGV

L 72-92

+16.5

UIW

W 91-83

+25.5

HCU

L 68-72

+3.5

SFA

L 78-81

+11.5

LAM

W 53-52

−38.5

SELA

W 68-60

−11.5

MCN

L 65-75

−5.5

NWST

W 61-47

−30.5

RGV

L 68-86

+10.5

over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nicholls has the better starters

Position by position: UT Rio Grande 1, Nicholls 2, even 2

UT Rio GrandeBetterNicholls

G D. Pryor TR2.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 41

NICHSmall

G D. Cockrill TR11.4 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 75

G A. Wright2.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 2

NICHSmall

G C. Winborne7.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 29

G J. Posey TR4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 75

RGVBig

G S. Sharp4.1 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 19

G B. Knight TR2.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

No call

F A. Dent TR6 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

G L. Ramirez0 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

F J. Sileu TR0.3 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

UT Rio GrandeBetterNicholls

RGV offense297th of 366 · -9.2

Even

NICH defense282nd of 366 · -7.0

RGV defense265th of 366 · -6.8

Even

NICH offense283rd of 366 · -8.7

Backcourt-4.0 · 5 players

NICHSmall

Backcourt-2.5 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-0.7 · 2 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-0.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestRGV betterNICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

UT Rio Grande

Guards

D. Pryor18 min · TRA. Wright15 minJ. Posey12 min · TRB. Knight8 min · TRL. Ramirez2 minJ. BlairNew

Forwards

T. WrightNewJ. HillNewB. CrawfordNewK. CorbittNew

Nicholls

Guards

D. Cockrill24 min · TRC. Winborne23 minS. Sharp17 minH. Carter4 min · TRC. Simpson3 min · TRJ. Matthews2 min

Forwards

A. Dent13 min · TRJ. Sileu7 min · TRA. Arop2 min · TRM. MboupNewJ. TaylorNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RGV73.7 #210

NICH71.0 #266

Points per possession

RGV1.10 #137

NICH1.04 #275

Pace (possessions)

RGV67.3 #268

NICH68.3 #210

Shooting

Effective FG%

RGV54.8 #44

NICH50.6 #205

3-point %

RGV36.8 #35

NICH33.3 #215

3-point attempt rate

RGV43.7 #95

NICH43.9 #90

Free throw rate

RGV28.9 #332

NICH34.5 #195

Possessions

Turnover rate

RGV18.5 #296

NICH17.4 #232

Offensive rebound rate

RGV28.2 #257

NICH28.1 #263

Assists per game

RGV15.7 #58

NICH12.9 #219

Defense

Points allowed

RGV70.6 #67

NICH75.7 #209

Points allowed per possession

RGV1.05 #86

NICH1.11 #243

Opponent effective FG%

RGV47.8 #38

NICH54.4 #311

Opponent 3-point %

RGV30.4 #16

NICH34.6 #224

Turnovers forced

RGV16.2 #210

NICH20.5 #15

Defensive rebound rate

RGV67.9 #266

NICH66.3 #314

Steals per game

RGV5.9 #243

NICH8.7 #15

Blocks per game

RGV2.8 #266

NICH2.8 #270

RGV		NICH
Scoring
73.7 #210	Points per game	71.0 #266
1.10 #137	Points per possession	1.04 #275
67.3 #268	Pace (possessions)	68.3 #210
Shooting
54.8 #44	Effective FG%	50.6 #205
36.8 #35	3-point %	33.3 #215
43.7 #95	3-point attempt rate	43.9 #90
28.9 #332	Free throw rate	34.5 #195
Possessions
18.5 #296	Turnover rate	17.4 #232
28.2 #257	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #263
15.7 #58	Assists per game	12.9 #219
Defense
70.6 #67	Points allowed	75.7 #209
1.05 #86	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #243
47.8 #38	Opponent effective FG%	54.4 #311
30.4 #16	Opponent 3-point %	34.6 #224
16.2 #210	Turnovers forced	20.5 #15
67.9 #266	Defensive rebound rate	66.3 #314
5.9 #243	Steals per game	8.7 #15
2.8 #266	Blocks per game	2.8 #270

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Rio Grande

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs McNeese80–84
Wvs Nicholls86–68
Wvs N'Western St74–62
Wvs East Texas A&M63–55
L@ McNeese68–75

A week or more of rest.

Nicholls

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UT Rio Grande68–86
Wvs N'Western St61–47
Lvs McNeese65–75
Wvs SE Louisiana68–60
W@ Lamar53–52

A week or more of rest.

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at Nicholls Colonels

What could decide it: NICH has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UT Rio Grande

Nicholls

Nicholls has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

UT Rio Grande

Nicholls