Austin Peay Governors at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 7, 2:00 PM ETUTRGV Fieldhouse · at UT Rio Grande

Final

Closing lineRGV -2.5✓ RGV covered by 10.5

Closing total151.5Under by 38.5

Season records: Austin Peay and UT Rio Grande
APSU	This season	RGV
3-4	Record	1-5
4-3	ATS	3-3
2-5	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: APSU 74–75 RGV · ✓ RGV (53%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
APSU	30	20	50
RGV	31	32	63

1st half: APSU 30, RGV 31 (RGV by 1). The model had RGV by 0.3 and a total of 69.9 (actual 61).

Team stats

APSU		RGV
18-57 32%	Field goals	24-55 44%
2-15 13%	3-pointers	6-25 24%
12-19 63%	Free throws	9-11 82%
30 9 off	Rebounds	45 11 off
14	Assists	14
12	Steals	5
2	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	20
11	Fouls	17
32	Points in paint	32
8	Fast-break points	13

Players

APSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zyree Collins PG	35	9	3	3	4-12	0-3
Tate McCubbin G	34	16	4	4	5-8	2-5
Collin Parker F	30	6	6	2	2-12	0-3
Rashaud Marshall F	30	19	8	0	7-15	0-0
Anton Brookshire PG	29	0	2	5	0-6	0-2
Bench
Matt Enright PG	13	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Creighton Morisch F	9	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Travis Torain F	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Tyler Wagner G	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Ja'Corey Robinson G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Hansel Enmanuel PG	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Terrell Gaines PG	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Quan Lax

RGV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Koree Cotton G	34	22	10	3	8-14	2-6
Zae Blake G	32	6	8	2	2-6	1-3
Always Wright G	28	10	5	4	3-7	0-2
Marvin McGhee III G	21	3	2	2	1-5	1-4
Filip Brankovic F	17	6	4	0	3-7	0-2
Bench
Jaylen Washington Jr. G	22	4	4	2	2-6	0-2
Dane Christensen F	14	0	1	1	0-2	0-2
Marshal Destremau F	11	5	7	0	2-3	1-2
Demarris Winters G	10	5	1	0	2-3	1-2
Julien Gomez G	6	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Kwo Agwa F	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Luis Ramirez, Mustafo Vanjov, Kye Dickson, Jalen Ricks

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	RGV -2.5	RGV -0.8	APSU +1.8	L RGV covered
Total	151.5	149.2	Under 2.3	W Under
Projected score	—	APSU 74.2 · RGV 75

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	RGV -0.3	RGV -1.0
1H total	69.9	61
1H projected score	APSU 34.8 · RGV 35.1	APSU 30 · RGV 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APSU WWLWL	4-3	57%	3-3	2-3
RGV WLLWL	3-3	50%	—	1-0

Venue/role: APSU away, as underdog; RGV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
APSU UUOUO	2-5	29%	3-4
RGV OUUUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APSUlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%
RGVlast 6	1-5 17%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Austin Peay

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

W L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

U U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AF	W 74-54	-1.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	@WYO	L 65-79	+5.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	@UNCG	W 69-63	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 18	@MISS	L 65-72	+20.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@TLSA	L 75-84	+8.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsNIU	W 77-59	-6.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 3	@KENT	L 84-96	+8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 74-54

+18.5

WYO

L 65-79

−8.5

UNCG

W 69-63

+7.5

MISS

L 65-72

+13.5

TLSA

L 75-84

−0.5

NIU

W 77-59

+11.5

KENT

L 84-96

−3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 74-54

−8.5

WYO

L 65-79

−9.5

UNCG

W 69-63

−13.5

MISS

L 65-72

−8.5

TLSA

L 75-84

+10.5

NIU

W 77-59

−11.5

KENT

L 84-96

+26.5

over 2under 5avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

UT Rio Grande

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +6.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@BAY	L 81-96	+24.5	W +9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 8	@SUU	W 95-72	-1.5	W +21.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 11	@BOIS	L 65-85	+16.5	L −3.5	161.5	U 150
Nov 22	@MOST	L 67-74	+3.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 24	@ILL	L 73-87	+33.5	W +19.5	164.5	U 160
Dec 3	@SFA	L 60-73	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BAY

L 81-96

+9.5

SUU

W 95-72

+21.5

BOIS

L 65-85

−3.5

MOST

L 67-74

−3.5

ILL

L 73-87

+19.5

SFA

L 60-73

−6.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +6.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BAY

L 81-96

+22.5

SUU

W 95-72

+6.5

BOIS

L 65-85

−11.5

MOST

L 67-74

−8.5

ILL

L 73-87

−4.5

SFA

L 60-73

−10.5

over 2under 4avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Austin Peay Governors at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Austin Peay

UT Rio Grande

Austin Peay

UT Rio Grande