1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 8
  3. RGV @ TXST
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 8

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at Texas State Bobcats

Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St
#287RGVUT Rio Grande
@
#103TXSTTexas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RGVThis seasonTXST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TXST 80–67 · win probability TXST 88%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TXST has more of the edges

RGV 2, TXST 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
RGVBig
Three-pointers
RGV hits 36.8% and allows 30.4%; TXST hits 32.2% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 43.7% and 24.6% of their shots
TXSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RGV 28.2%, TXST 33.9%. Defensive: RGV 67.9%, TXST 71.6%
TXSTBig
RGV offense vs TXST defense
Offense 297th of 366 against a defense 112th, on the model’s ratings
RGVBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: RGV 54.8 and allows 47.8; TXST 50.0 and allows 52.0
TXSTBig
TXST offense vs RGV defense
Offense 105th of 366 against a defense 265th, on the model’s ratings
TXSTBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RGV 9%, TXST 69%. Transfers in: RGV 3, TXST 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
TXSTSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RGV 18.5%, TXST 18.7%. Forced: RGV 16.2%, TXST 18.5%
TXSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: RGV 28.9, TXST 34.0. Allowed: RGV 39.0, TXST 39.0
TXSTSmall
Home court
TXST at home. This season: TXST 0-0 at home, RGV 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
RGV has played the 274th-hardest schedule, TXST the 298th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: RGV plays 67.3 a game (268th fastest), TXST 68.2 (223rd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TXST -13.4—
Total—147.0—
Projected score—RGV 66.8 · TXST 80.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTXST -7.8—
1H total68.8—
1H projected scoreRGV 30.5 · TXST 38.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas St has the better starters

Position by position: UT Rio Grande 0, Texas St 2, even 3
UT Rio GrandeBetterTexas St
G D. Pryor TR2.9 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 41
TXSTSmall
G M. Drone14 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.9 ast Score 56
G A. Wright2.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 2
TXSTBig
G Q. House TR15.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 84
G J. Posey TR4.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 75
Even
G K. Younger TR15.1 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76
G B. Knight TR2.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Hall15.7 pts · 7.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 94
G L. Ramirez0 pts · 1 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F P. Djobet TR17.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 2 ast Score 89
UT Rio GrandeBetterTexas St
RGV offense297th of 366 · -9.2
TXSTBig
TXST defense112th of 366 · -1.4
RGV defense265th of 366 · -6.8
TXSTBig
TXST offense105th of 366 · -1.4
Backcourt-4.0 · 5 players
TXSTBig
Backcourt+2.5 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+7.5 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestRGV betterTXST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UT Rio Grande
Guards
D. Pryor18 min · TRA. Wright15 minJ. Posey12 min · TRB. Knight8 min · TRL. Ramirez2 minJ. BlairNew
Forwards
T. WrightNewJ. HillNewB. CrawfordNewK. CorbittNew
Texas St
Guards
M. Drone31 minQ. House31 min · TRK. Younger29 min · TRK. Gumbs28 minD. Pernell22 minC. Steger11 min · TR
Forwards
D. Hall30 minP. Djobet30 min · TRR. Jessamy27 min · TRK. GrandisonNewD. AbisogunNewK. SandersNew
Centers
R. Fields16 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RGVTXST
Scoring
73.7 #210Points per game71.9 #247
1.10 #137Points per possession1.06 #230
67.3 #268Pace (possessions)68.2 #223
Shooting
54.8 #44Effective FG%50.0 #238
36.8 #353-point %32.2 #271
43.7 #953-point attempt rate24.6 #364
28.9 #332Free throw rate34.0 #211
Possessions
18.5 #296Turnover rate18.7 #309
28.2 #257Offensive rebound rate33.9 #68
15.7 #58Assists per game12.7 #239
Defense
70.6 #67Points allowed72.5 #117
1.05 #86Points allowed per possession1.06 #106
47.8 #38Opponent effective FG%52.0 #210
30.4 #16Opponent 3-point %35.7 #293
16.2 #210Turnovers forced18.5 #75
67.9 #266Defensive rebound rate71.6 #81
5.9 #243Steals per game7.9 #41
2.8 #266Blocks per game3.6 #120
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Rio Grande

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 15-9 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs McNeese80–84
  • Wvs Nicholls86–68
  • Wvs N'Western St74–62
  • Wvs East Texas A&M63–55
  • L@ McNeese68–75

A week or more of rest.

Texas St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Pac-12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Southern Miss77–81
  • Wvs App State60–57
  • L@ Louisiana54–67
  • W@ South Alabama90–82
  • Wvs UL Monroe95–84

A week or more of rest.