Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 8, 8:00 PM ETBryce Jordan Center · at Penn State · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Nebraska and Penn State
NEB	This season	PSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NEB 79–72 · win probability NEB 74%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

NEB 6, PSU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NEBBig

Three-pointers

NEB hits 35.5% and allows 30.5%; PSU hits 32.4% and allows 38.8%. Threes are 51.1% and 38.0% of their shots

NEBBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NEB 55.5 and allows 48.1; PSU 53.0 and allows 58.4

NEBSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NEB 26.7%, PSU 25.9%. Defensive: NEB 72.6%, PSU 68.8%

NEBSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NEB 14.5%, PSU 15.6%. Forced: NEB 18.9%, PSU 17.7%

PSUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NEB 26.2, PSU 33.8. Allowed: NEB 25.1, PSU 27.5

NEBSmall

NEB offense vs PSU defense

Offense 43rd of 366 against a defense 101st, on the model’s ratings

PSUSmall

Home court

PSU at home. This season: PSU 0-0 at home, NEB 0-0 away

NEBSmall

PSU offense vs NEB defense

Offense 70th of 366 against a defense 23rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NEB 48%, PSU 27%. Transfers in: NEB 6, PSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: NEB plays 67.3 a game (267th fastest), PSU 67.5 (255th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

NEB has played the 59th-hardest schedule, PSU the 63rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NEB -7.2	—
Total	—	151.5	—
Projected score	—	NEB 79.4 · PSU 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NEB -4.4	—
1H total	70.8	—
1H projected score	NEB 37.6 · PSU 33.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB WLWWL	19-16	54%	7-3	—
PSU LWLLL	12-20	38%	7-10	—

Venue/role: NEB away; PSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB OUUUO	11-24	31%	28-7
PSU OUOUU	18-14	56%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
PSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Nebraska

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	vs MIZ	No recent meeting

Penn State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ ILL	L65–73WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

NEB 4–2 PSUNEB leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · NEB 4-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2025-26	PSU 64 @ NEB 87	NEB -17.5	NEB W
Feb 19, 2024-25	NEB 72 @ PSU 89	PSU +1.5	PSU W
Feb 17, 2023-24	PSU 49 @ NEB 68	NEB -8.5	NEB W
Feb 5, 2022-23	PSU 63 @ NEB 72	NEB +3.5	NEB W
Jan 21, 2022-23	NEB 65 @ PSU 76	PSU -8.5	PSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Nebraska

35 games played

Straight up

28-7

80% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-24

31% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-780%

W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

W W L W W L L L W W W L L L W W W W L W W L L L W L W L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-2431%

U O U O O O U U U U O U U U U O U U U U U U O O U U O U U U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWGA	W 86-53	-24.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 139
Nov 8	vsFIU	W 96-66	-21.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 11	vsUMES	W 69-50	-35.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 15	vsOU	W 105-99	-1.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsUNM	W 84-72	-8.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsKSU	W 86-85	-1.5	L −0.5	168.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsWIN	W 80-73	-14.5	L −7.5	166.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsUPST	W 72-63	-25.5	L −16.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 7	vsCREI	W 71-50	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	U 121
Dec 10	vsWIS	W 90-60	-1.5	W +28.5	158.5	U 150
Dec 13	@ILL	W 83-80	+9.5	W +12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsUND	W 78-55	-29.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 133
Dec 30	vsUNH	W 86-55	-31.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 2	vsMSU	W 58-56	-2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 114
Jan 5	@OSU	W 72-69	+2.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 141
Jan 10	@IU	W 83-77	+4.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 160
Jan 13	vsORE	W 90-55	-10.5	W +24.5	146.5	U 145
Jan 17	@NU	W 77-58	-4.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 135
Jan 21	vsWASH	W 76-66	-10.5	L −0.5	152.5	U 142
Jan 24	@MINN	W 76-57	-4.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 133
Jan 27	@MICH	L 72-75	+11.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 147
Feb 1	vsILL	L 69-78	-1.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 7	@RUTG	W 80-68	-12.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 148
Feb 10	vsPUR	L 77-80	-2.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsNU	W 68-49	-13.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 117
Feb 17	@IOWA	L 52-57	+1.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 109
Feb 21	vsPSU	W 87-64	-17.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 25	vsMD	W 74-61	-16.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 135
Feb 28	@USC	W 82-67	-5.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 149
Mar 3	@UCLA	L 52-72	+1.5	L −18.5	144.5	U 124
Mar 8	vsIOWA	W 84-75	-4.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPUR	L 58-74	+4.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 132
Mar 19	vsTROY	W 76-47	-13.5	W +15.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 21	vsVAN	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 146
Mar 26	vsIOWA	L 71-77	-1.5	L −7.5	131.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

+8.5

FIU

W 96-66

+8.5

UMES

W 69-50

−16.5

W 105-99

+4.5

UNM

W 84-72

+3.5

KSU

W 86-85

−0.5

WIN

W 80-73

−7.5

UPST

W 72-63

−16.5

CREI

W 71-50

+15.5

WIS

W 90-60

+28.5

ILL

W 83-80

+12.5

UND

W 78-55

−6.5

UNH

W 86-55

−0.5

MSU

W 58-56

−0.5

OSU

W 72-69

+5.5

W 83-77

+10.5

ORE

W 90-55

+24.5

W 77-58

+14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−0.5

MINN

W 76-57

+14.5

MICH

L 72-75

+8.5

ILL

L 69-78

−10.5

RUTG

W 80-68

−0.5

PUR

L 77-80

−5.5

W 68-49

+5.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−3.5

PSU

W 87-64

+5.5

W 74-61

−3.5

USC

W 82-67

+9.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−18.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+4.5

PUR

L 58-74

−11.5

TROY

W 76-47

+15.5

VAN

W 74-72

+3.5

IOWA

L 71-77

−7.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WGA

W 86-53

−14.5

FIU

W 96-66

+5.5

UMES

W 69-50

−27.5

W 105-99

+40.5

UNM

W 84-72

+4.5

KSU

W 86-85

+2.5

WIN

W 80-73

−13.5

UPST

W 72-63

−22.5

CREI

W 71-50

−34.5

WIS

W 90-60

−8.5

ILL

W 83-80

+6.5

UND

W 78-55

−18.5

UNH

W 86-55

−5.5

MSU

W 58-56

−32.5

OSU

W 72-69

−14.5

W 83-77

+9.5

ORE

W 90-55

−1.5

W 77-58

−14.5

WASH

W 76-66

−10.5

MINN

W 76-57

−7.5

MICH

L 72-75

−10.5

ILL

L 69-78

−7.5

RUTG

W 80-68

+2.5

PUR

L 77-80

+10.5

W 68-49

−29.5

IOWA

L 52-57

−30.5

PSU

W 87-64

+3.5

W 74-61

−7.5

USC

W 82-67

−0.5

UCLA

L 52-72

−20.5

IOWA

W 84-75

+22.5

PUR

L 58-74

−13.5

TROY

W 76-47

−16.5

VAN

W 74-72

−0.5

IOWA

L 71-77

+16.5

over 11under 24avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn State

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L W W W L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

L W L W L L L W L L W L L W W W L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1456%

U U U O O U O U O O O U O U U O U O O O O O O U U O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsSHU	W 90-59	-14.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsCAM	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 9	@IU	L 72-113	+14.5	L −26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsMSU	L 72-76	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsPITT	L 46-80	-1.5	L −35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsNCCU	W 90-67	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsILL	L 65-73	+14.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsMICH	L 72-74	+24.5	W +22.5	169.5	U 146
Jan 10	@PUR	L 85-93	+22.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 14	vsUCLA	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 18	@MD	L 73-96	+1.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 169
Jan 22	vsWIS	L 71-98	+5.5	L −21.5	157.5	O 169
Jan 26	@OSU	L 78-84	+11.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 29	@NU	L 73-94	+7.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 167
Feb 1	vsMINN	W 77-75	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 5	@MICH	L 69-110	+26.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 179
Feb 8	vsUSC	L 75-77	+3.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 152
Feb 11	@WASH	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	153.5	U 123
Feb 14	@ORE	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 18	vsRUTG	L 72-85	-4.5	L −17.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NEB	L 64-87	+17.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsIOWA	W 71-69	+9.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 140
Mar 4	vsOSU	L 62-94	+7.5	L −24.5	152.5	O 156
Mar 8	@RUTG	L 62-74	+4.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 136
Mar 10	vsNU	L 66-76	+4.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

SHU

W 90-59

+16.5

CAM

W 87-76

−3.5

L 72-113

−26.5

MSU

L 72-76

+8.5

PITT

L 46-80

−35.5

NCCU

W 90-67

−0.5

ILL

L 65-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-74

+22.5

PUR

L 85-93

+14.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−6.5

L 73-96

−21.5

WIS

L 71-98

−21.5

OSU

L 78-84

+5.5

L 73-94

−13.5

MINN

W 77-75

+4.5

MICH

L 69-110

−14.5

USC

L 75-77

+1.5

WASH

W 63-60

+15.5

ORE

L 72-83

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-85

−17.5

NEB

L 64-87

−5.5

IOWA

W 71-69

+11.5

OSU

L 62-94

−24.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−7.5

L 66-76

−5.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

SHU

W 90-59

−11.5

CAM

W 87-76

+8.5

L 72-113

+32.5

MSU

L 72-76

+2.5

PITT

L 46-80

−20.5

NCCU

W 90-67

+6.5

ILL

L 65-73

−18.5

MICH

L 72-74

−23.5

PUR

L 85-93

+25.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−17.5

L 73-96

+20.5

WIS

L 71-98

+11.5

OSU

L 78-84

+8.5

L 73-94

+18.5

MINN

W 77-75

+9.5

MICH

L 69-110

+17.5

USC

L 75-77

−5.5

WASH

W 63-60

−30.5

ORE

L 72-83

+9.5

RUTG

L 72-85

+8.5

NEB

L 64-87

+3.5

IOWA

W 71-69

−3.5

OSU

L 62-94

+3.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−13.5

L 66-76

−1.5

over 18under 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Nebraska has the better starters

Position by position: Nebraska 4, Penn State 0, even 1

NebraskaBetterPenn State

G T. Leonhardt TR12 pts · 5.4 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83

NEBBig

G D. Bowen TR11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 45

F P. Sandfort18.1 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 97

NEBBig

G J. Rodgers TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 6.9 ast Score 49

F B. Kapke TR10.6 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 77

NEBSmall

F B. Byers TR14.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55

F S. Orme TR12.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 86

Even

F J. Reed11.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 82

F D. Wilkinson TR14.1 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 93

NEBSmall

F I. Juric10.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 61

NebraskaBetterPenn State

NEB offense43rd of 366 · +4.6

NEBSmall

PSU defense101st of 366 · -0.8

NEB defense23rd of 366 · +5.1

Even

PSU offense70th of 366 · +1.7

Backcourt+2.0 · 1 player

NEBBig

Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt+13.0 · 4 players

NEBBig

Frontcourt+2.2 · 3 players

Bench+1.7 · 5 players

Even

Bench+2.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestNEB betterPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Nebraska

Guards

T. Leonhardt35 min · TRC. Jacobsen20 minT. DeGourville19 min · TRC. Essegian14 minJ. LanierNewC. RiceNew

Forwards

P. Sandfort34 minB. Kapke27 min · TRS. Orme26 min · TRD. Wilkinson25 min · TRB. Frager24 minK. Betts6 min · TR

Penn State

Guards

D. Bowen35 min · TRJ. Rodgers30 min · TRR. Blums23 min · TRT. AllardNewR. GrodinNewA. GemaoNew

Forwards

B. Byers32 min · TRJ. Reed28 minI. Juric26 minT. Oboh22 min · TRR. PrkacinNewF. WibautNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NEB77.0 #116

PSU73.7 #211

Points per possession

NEB1.15 #61

PSU1.09 #148

Pace (possessions)

NEB67.3 #267

PSU67.5 #255

Shooting

Effective FG%

NEB55.5 #28

PSU53.0 #102

3-point %

NEB35.5 #91

PSU32.4 #263

3-point attempt rate

NEB51.1 #9

PSU38.0 #214

Free throw rate

NEB26.2 #356

PSU33.8 #219

Possessions

Turnover rate

NEB14.5 #44

PSU15.6 #113

Offensive rebound rate

NEB26.7 #306

PSU25.9 #325

Assists per game

NEB18.0 #10

PSU12.7 #238

Defense

Points allowed

NEB66.1 #14

PSU79.3 #308

Points allowed per possession

NEB0.98 #13

PSU1.17 #345

Opponent effective FG%

NEB48.1 #40

PSU58.4 #363

Opponent 3-point %

NEB30.5 #19

PSU38.8 #363

Turnovers forced

NEB18.9 #54

PSU17.7 #115

Defensive rebound rate

NEB72.6 #47

PSU68.8 #210

Steals per game

NEB7.1 #112

PSU6.9 #132

Blocks per game

NEB2.5 #303

PSU1.7 #357

NEB		PSU
Scoring
77.0 #116	Points per game	73.7 #211
1.15 #61	Points per possession	1.09 #148
67.3 #267	Pace (possessions)	67.5 #255
Shooting
55.5 #28	Effective FG%	53.0 #102
35.5 #91	3-point %	32.4 #263
51.1 #9	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #214
26.2 #356	Free throw rate	33.8 #219
Possessions
14.5 #44	Turnover rate	15.6 #113
26.7 #306	Offensive rebound rate	25.9 #325
18.0 #10	Assists per game	12.7 #238
Defense
66.1 #14	Points allowed	79.3 #308
0.98 #13	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #345
48.1 #40	Opponent effective FG%	58.4 #363
30.5 #19	Opponent 3-point %	38.8 #363
18.9 #54	Turnovers forced	17.7 #115
72.6 #47	Defensive rebound rate	68.8 #210
7.1 #112	Steals per game	6.9 #132
2.5 #303	Blocks per game	1.7 #357

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Nebraska

28-7 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa71–77
Wvs Vanderbilt74–72
Wvs Troy76–47
Lvs Purdue58–74
Wvs Iowa84–75

A week or more of rest.

Penn State

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern66–76
L@ Rutgers62–74
Lvs Ohio State62–94
Wvs Iowa71–69
L@ Nebraska64–87

A week or more of rest.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions

What could decide it: NEB has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Nebraska

Penn State

Nebraska has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Nebraska

Penn State