Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 2:00 PM ETState Farm Center · at Illinois · Conference game

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Penn State and Illinois
PSU	This season	ILL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ILL 90–67 · win probability ILL 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 156.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

PSU 1, ILL 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

ILLBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: PSU 25.9%, ILL 39.2%. Defensive: PSU 68.8%, ILL 73.3%

ILLBig

Three-pointers

PSU hits 32.4% and allows 38.8%; ILL hits 34.5% and allows 31.3%. Threes are 38.0% and 49.7% of their shots

ILLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: PSU 53.0 and allows 58.4; ILL 54.7 and allows 47.3

ILLSmall

ILL offense vs PSU defense

Offense 3rd of 366 against a defense 101st, on the model’s ratings

PSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: PSU 15.6%, ILL 13.1%. Forced: PSU 17.7%, ILL 11.6%

ILLSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: PSU 27%, ILL 63%. Transfers in: PSU 5, ILL 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

ILLSmall

PSU offense vs ILL defense

Offense 70th of 366 against a defense 8th, on the model’s ratings

ILLSmall

Home court

ILL at home. This season: ILL 0-0 at home, PSU 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

PSU has played the 63rd-hardest schedule, ILL the 18th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: PSU plays 67.5 a game (255th fastest), ILL 66.5 (292nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: PSU 33.8, ILL 33.2. Allowed: PSU 27.5, ILL 19.7

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ILL -23.7	—
Total	—	156.7	—
Projected score	—	PSU 66.5 · ILL 90.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ILL -14.0	—
1H total	73.2	—
1H projected score	PSU 29.6 · ILL 43.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU LWLLL	12-20	38%	4-7	—
ILL WWWWL	22-15	59%	10-7	—

Venue/role: PSU away; ILL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OUOUU	18-14	56%	12-20
ILL OUUUU	15-22	41%	28-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
ILL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Penn State

No more games listed yet.

Illinois

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

PSU 4–3 ILLPSU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · ILL has won the last 2 meetings · PSU 6-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 3, 2025-26	ILL 73 @ PSU 65	PSU +14.5	PSU W
Jan 8, 2024-25	PSU 52 @ ILL 91	ILL -7.5	ILL W
Feb 21, 2023-24	ILL 89 @ PSU 90	PSU +7.5	PSU W
Mar 9, 2022-23	PSU 79 vs ILL 76	ILL -2.5	PSU W
Feb 14, 2022-23	ILL 81 @ PSU 93	PSU +3.5	PSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Penn State

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L W W W L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

L W L W L L L W L L W L L W W W L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1456%

U U U O O U O U O O O U O U U O U O O O O O O U U O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsSHU	W 90-59	-14.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsCAM	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 9	@IU	L 72-113	+14.5	L −26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsMSU	L 72-76	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsPITT	L 46-80	-1.5	L −35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsNCCU	W 90-67	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsILL	L 65-73	+14.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsMICH	L 72-74	+24.5	W +22.5	169.5	U 146
Jan 10	@PUR	L 85-93	+22.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 14	vsUCLA	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 18	@MD	L 73-96	+1.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 169
Jan 22	vsWIS	L 71-98	+5.5	L −21.5	157.5	O 169
Jan 26	@OSU	L 78-84	+11.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 29	@NU	L 73-94	+7.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 167
Feb 1	vsMINN	W 77-75	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 5	@MICH	L 69-110	+26.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 179
Feb 8	vsUSC	L 75-77	+3.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 152
Feb 11	@WASH	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	153.5	U 123
Feb 14	@ORE	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 18	vsRUTG	L 72-85	-4.5	L −17.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NEB	L 64-87	+17.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsIOWA	W 71-69	+9.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 140
Mar 4	vsOSU	L 62-94	+7.5	L −24.5	152.5	O 156
Mar 8	@RUTG	L 62-74	+4.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 136
Mar 10	vsNU	L 66-76	+4.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

SHU

W 90-59

+16.5

CAM

W 87-76

−3.5

L 72-113

−26.5

MSU

L 72-76

+8.5

PITT

L 46-80

−35.5

NCCU

W 90-67

−0.5

ILL

L 65-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-74

+22.5

PUR

L 85-93

+14.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−6.5

L 73-96

−21.5

WIS

L 71-98

−21.5

OSU

L 78-84

+5.5

L 73-94

−13.5

MINN

W 77-75

+4.5

MICH

L 69-110

−14.5

USC

L 75-77

+1.5

WASH

W 63-60

+15.5

ORE

L 72-83

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-85

−17.5

NEB

L 64-87

−5.5

IOWA

W 71-69

+11.5

OSU

L 62-94

−24.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−7.5

L 66-76

−5.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

SHU

W 90-59

−11.5

CAM

W 87-76

+8.5

L 72-113

+32.5

MSU

L 72-76

+2.5

PITT

L 46-80

−20.5

NCCU

W 90-67

+6.5

ILL

L 65-73

−18.5

MICH

L 72-74

−23.5

PUR

L 85-93

+25.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−17.5

L 73-96

+20.5

WIS

L 71-98

+11.5

OSU

L 78-84

+8.5

L 73-94

+18.5

MINN

W 77-75

+9.5

MICH

L 69-110

+17.5

USC

L 75-77

−5.5

WASH

W 63-60

−30.5

ORE

L 72-83

+9.5

RUTG

L 72-85

+8.5

NEB

L 64-87

+3.5

IOWA

W 71-69

−3.5

OSU

L 62-94

+3.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−13.5

L 66-76

−1.5

over 18under 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Illinois

37 games played

Straight up

28-9

76% wins

Against the spread

22-15

59% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-22

41% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

28-976%

W W W W L W W L W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L L W W L L W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-1559%

W W W L L W L L W W L W W L W W W L W W L W W L L W W L L W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2241%

O O U U U U U U U O O U U U U O U O O O U U U O O U O O U U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJKST	W 113-55	-28.5	W +29.5	157.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsFGCU	W 113-70	-29.5	W +13.5	160.5	O 183
Nov 11	vsTTU	W 81-77	-3.5	W +0.5	168.5	U 158
Nov 14	vsCOLG	W 84-65	-30.5	L −11.5	164.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsALA	L 86-90	-2.5	L −6.5	180.5	U 176
Nov 22	vsLIU	W 98-58	-34.5	W +5.5	160.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsRGV	W 87-73	-33.5	L −19.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 28	vsCONN	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 6	vsTENN	W 75-62	+1.5	W +14.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 9	@OSU	W 88-80	-3.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 13	vsNEB	L 80-83	-9.5	L −12.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsMIZ	W 91-48	-8.5	W +34.5	153.5	U 139
Dec 29	vsSOU	W 90-55	-33.5	W +1.5	163.5	U 145
Jan 3	@PSU	W 73-65	-14.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 8	vsRUTG	W 81-55	-22.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 136
Jan 11	@IOWA	W 75-69	-1.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 14	@NU	W 79-68	-9.5	W +1.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsMINN	W 77-67	-15.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 144
Jan 21	vsMD	W 89-70	-18.5	W +0.5	152.5	O 159
Jan 24	@PUR	W 88-82	+5.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 29	vsWASH	W 75-66	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 141
Feb 1	@NEB	W 78-69	+1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 4	vsNU	W 84-44	-16.5	W +23.5	149.5	U 128
Feb 7	@MSU	L 82-85	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 167
Feb 10	vsWIS	L 90-92	-9.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 182
Feb 15	vsIU	W 71-51	-8.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 122
Feb 18	@USC	W 101-65	-8.5	W +27.5	151.5	O 166
Feb 21	@UCLA	L 94-95	-6.5	L −7.5	146.5	O 189
Feb 27	vsMICH	L 70-84	+1.5	L −12.5	159.5	U 154
Mar 3	vsORE	W 80-54	-17.5	W +8.5	147.5	U 134
Mar 8	@MD	W 78-72	-14.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 150
Mar 13	vsWIS	L 88-91	-8.5	L −11.5	158.5	O 179
Mar 19	vsPENN	W 105-70	-25.5	W +9.5	150.5	O 175
Mar 21	vsVCU	W 76-55	-12.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 131
Mar 26	vsHOU	W 65-55	+2.5	W +12.5	141.5	U 120
Mar 28	vsIOWA	W 71-59	-6.5	W +5.5	138.5	U 130
Apr 4	vsCONN	L 62-71	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+29.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+13.5

TTU

W 81-77

+0.5

COLG

W 84-65

−11.5

ALA

L 86-90

−6.5

LIU

W 98-58

+5.5

RGV

W 87-73

−19.5

CONN

L 61-74

−8.5

TENN

W 75-62

+14.5

OSU

W 88-80

+4.5

NEB

L 80-83

−12.5

MIZ

W 91-48

+34.5

SOU

W 90-55

+1.5

PSU

W 73-65

−6.5

RUTG

W 81-55

+3.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+4.5

W 79-68

+1.5

MINN

W 77-67

−5.5

W 89-70

+0.5

PUR

W 88-82

+11.5

WASH

W 75-66

−3.5

NEB

W 78-69

+10.5

W 84-44

+23.5

MSU

L 82-85

−1.5

WIS

L 90-92

−11.5

W 71-51

+11.5

USC

W 101-65

+27.5

UCLA

L 94-95

−7.5

MICH

L 70-84

−12.5

ORE

W 80-54

+8.5

W 78-72

−8.5

WIS

L 88-91

−11.5

PENN

W 105-70

+9.5

VCU

W 76-55

+8.5

HOU

W 65-55

+12.5

IOWA

W 71-59

+5.5

CONN

L 62-71

−10.5

covered 22didn’t cover 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JKST

W 113-55

+10.5

FGCU

W 113-70

+22.5

TTU

W 81-77

−10.5

COLG

W 84-65

−15.5

ALA

L 86-90

−4.5

LIU

W 98-58

−4.5

RGV

W 87-73

−4.5

CONN

L 61-74

−15.5

TENN

W 75-62

−12.5

OSU

W 88-80

+5.5

NEB

L 80-83

+6.5

MIZ

W 91-48

−14.5

SOU

W 90-55

−18.5

PSU

W 73-65

−18.5

RUTG

W 81-55

−13.5

IOWA

W 75-69

+1.5

W 79-68

−4.5

MINN

W 77-67

+1.5

W 89-70

+6.5

PUR

W 88-82

+17.5

WASH

W 75-66

−12.5

NEB

W 78-69

−7.5

W 84-44

−21.5

MSU

L 82-85

+24.5

WIS

L 90-92

+28.5

W 71-51

−31.5

USC

W 101-65

+14.5

UCLA

L 94-95

+42.5

MICH

L 70-84

−5.5

ORE

W 80-54

−13.5

W 78-72

+4.5

WIS

L 88-91

+20.5

PENN

W 105-70

+24.5

VCU

W 76-55

−20.5

HOU

W 65-55

−21.5

IOWA

W 71-59

−8.5

CONN

L 62-71

−6.5

over 15under 22avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Illinois has the better starters

Position by position: Penn State 1, Illinois 4, even 0

Penn StateBetterIllinois

G D. Bowen TR11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 45

ILLBig

G S. Vaaks TR15.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.2 ast Score 86

G J. Rodgers TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 6.9 ast Score 49

ILLBig

G A. Stojakovic13.5 pts · 4.5 reb · 1 ast Score 95

F B. Byers TR14.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55

ILLBig

F D. Mirkovic13.3 pts · 8 reb · 2.6 ast Score 94

F J. Reed11.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 82

PSUSmall

F J. Davis5.4 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 58

F I. Juric10.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 61

ILLSmall

C T. Ivisic10.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 79

Penn StateBetterIllinois

PSU offense70th of 366 · +1.7

ILLSmall

ILL defense8th of 366 · +8.4

PSU defense101st of 366 · -0.8

ILLSmall

ILL offense3rd of 366 · +11.7

Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players

ILLBig

Backcourt+5.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+2.2 · 3 players

ILLBig

Frontcourt+6.7 · 3 players

Bench+2.1 · 2 players

Even

Bench+2.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestPSU betterILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Penn State

Guards

D. Bowen35 min · TRJ. Rodgers30 min · TRR. Blums23 min · TRT. AllardNewR. GrodinNewA. GemaoNew

Forwards

B. Byers32 min · TRJ. Reed28 minI. Juric26 minT. Oboh22 min · TRR. PrkacinNewF. WibautNew

Illinois

Guards

S. Vaaks32 min · TRA. Stojakovic26 minB. Fagbemi4 minQ. McCoyNewQ. ColemanNewL. WilliamsNew

Forwards

D. Mirkovic30 minJ. Davis20 minZ. Ivisic17 minL. DavisNewZ. ZensNew

Centers

T. Ivisic25 minJ. Jakstys5 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

PSU73.7 #211

ILL83.2 #24

Points per possession

PSU1.09 #148

ILL1.25 #1

Pace (possessions)

PSU67.5 #255

ILL66.5 #292

Shooting

Effective FG%

PSU53.0 #102

ILL54.7 #46

3-point %

PSU32.4 #263

ILL34.5 #142

3-point attempt rate

PSU38.0 #214

ILL49.7 #15

Free throw rate

PSU33.8 #219

ILL33.2 #232

Possessions

Turnover rate

PSU15.6 #113

ILL13.1 #9

Offensive rebound rate

PSU25.9 #325

ILL39.2 #3

Assists per game

PSU12.7 #238

ILL14.2 #133

Defense

Points allowed

PSU79.3 #308

ILL68.8 #45

Points allowed per possession

PSU1.17 #345

ILL1.03 #61

Opponent effective FG%

PSU58.4 #363

ILL47.3 #26

Opponent 3-point %

PSU38.8 #363

ILL31.3 #38

Turnovers forced

PSU17.7 #115

ILL11.6 #365

Defensive rebound rate

PSU68.8 #210

ILL73.3 #28

Steals per game

PSU6.9 #132

ILL3.7 #365

Blocks per game

PSU1.7 #357

ILL4.6 #28

PSU		ILL
Scoring
73.7 #211	Points per game	83.2 #24
1.09 #148	Points per possession	1.25 #1
67.5 #255	Pace (possessions)	66.5 #292
Shooting
53.0 #102	Effective FG%	54.7 #46
32.4 #263	3-point %	34.5 #142
38.0 #214	3-point attempt rate	49.7 #15
33.8 #219	Free throw rate	33.2 #232
Possessions
15.6 #113	Turnover rate	13.1 #9
25.9 #325	Offensive rebound rate	39.2 #3
12.7 #238	Assists per game	14.2 #133
Defense
79.3 #308	Points allowed	68.8 #45
1.17 #345	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #61
58.4 #363	Opponent effective FG%	47.3 #26
38.8 #363	Opponent 3-point %	31.3 #38
17.7 #115	Turnovers forced	11.6 #365
68.8 #210	Defensive rebound rate	73.3 #28
6.9 #132	Steals per game	3.7 #365
1.7 #357	Blocks per game	4.6 #28

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Penn State

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern66–76
L@ Rutgers62–74
Lvs Ohio State62–94
Wvs Iowa71–69
L@ Nebraska64–87

A week or more of rest.

Illinois

28-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn62–71
Wvs Iowa71–59
Wvs Houston65–55
Wvs VCU76–55
Wvs Penn105–70

A week or more of rest.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini

What could decide it: ILL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Penn State

Illinois

Illinois has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Penn State

Illinois