Bon Secours Wellness Arena · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
ILL -12.5✓ ILL covered by 8.5
ILL -12.5✓ ILL covered by 8.5Closing total151.5Under by 20.5
 VCU | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 28-7 | Record | 25-8 |
| 18-17 | ATS | 19-14 |
| 16-19 | O/U | 15-18 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VCU 74–85 ILL · ✓ ILL (85%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 28 | 27 | 55 |
| ILL | 35 | 41 | 76 |
1st half: VCU 28, ILL 35 (ILL by 7). The model had ILL by 6.8 and a total of 74.1 (actual 63).
Team stats
| VCU | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-66 35% | Field goals | 28-58 48% |
| 7-32 22% | 3-pointers | 9-24 38% |
| 2-6 33% | Free throws | 11-17 65% |
| 29 12 off | Rebounds | 45 12 off |
| 8 | Assists | 15 |
| 8 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 7 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| VCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Evans F | 33 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-4 |
| Lazar Djokovic F | 29 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-6 | 0-3 |
| Brandon Jennings G | 26 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Jadrian Tracey G | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-13 | 1-6 |
| Nyk Lewis G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Terrence Hill Jr. G | 37 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 7-16 | 3-9 |
| Tyrell Ward G | 25 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 5-12 | 1-5 |
| Michael Belle F | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Ahmad Nowell G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Tillery G | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Keyshawn Mitchell F | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jordann Dumont F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Obinnaya Okafor, Christian Fermin
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylan Boswell G | 34 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4-12 | 2-5 |
| Keaton Wagler G | 32 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-5 |
| David Mirkovic F | 24 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 22 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 6-10 | 2-5 |
| Jake Davis F | 14 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ben Humrichous F | 27 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 26 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 7-12 | 0-2 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| AJ Redd G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Brandon Lee G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Blake Fagbemi G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jason Jakstys, Ty Rodgers
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILL -12.5
ModelILL -11.7
Model edgeVCU +0.8
L ILL covered
Total
Market151.5
Model158.7
Model edgeOver 7.2
L Under
Projected score
VCU 73.5 · ILL 85.2
VCU 55 · ILL 76
Win probability
ILL 85%
1st half
Spread
ILL -6.8
ILL -7.0
Total
74.1
63 points
Projected score
VCU 33.6 · ILL 40.5
VCU 28 · ILL 35
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -9.5
3 → ILL
CloseILL -12.5
3 pts toward ILL
Total
Open154.5
▼ 3
Close151.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
VCU +525 · ILL -750
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -9.5 · closed ILL -12.5 · moved 3 toward ILLmodel ILL -11.5
model ILL -11.5
Opened 154.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 3 downmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
| ILL | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
VCU
35 games played
Straight up
28-7
80% wins
Against the spread
18-17
51% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-19
46% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WAG | W 103-74 | -25.5 | W +3.5 | 133.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 7 | vs USU | L 77-80 | +2.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs SPU | W 78-61 | -20.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 17 | @ NCSU | L 79-85 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs COPP | W 101-58 | -32.5 | W +10.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 26 | vs USF | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 27 | vs VAN | L 74-89 | +6.5 | L −8.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs VT | W 86-68 | -2.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 154 |
| Dec 5 | vs SAM | W 83-57 | -19.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 10 | vs UNM | L 78-81 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 15 | vs NIA | W 84-58 | -30.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 18 | vs AMER | W 105-83 | -19.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 188 |
| Dec 22 | vs RID | W 100-79 | -30.5 | L −9.5 | 145.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 31 | vs SBU | W 89-82 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 3 | @ DUQ | W 93-80 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 7 | vs SLU | L 62-71 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 171.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 10 | @ GMU | L 80-86 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 14 | @ URI | W 84-75 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 19 | vs JOES | W 79-72 | -14.5 | L −7.5 | 151.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 24 | @ DAV | W 75-69 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 27 | vs RICH | W 77-69 | -12.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 30 | vs LUC | W 89-75 | -18.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 3 | @ FOR | W 63-59 | -7.5 | L −3.5 | 146.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 6 | vs DAY | W 99-73 | -8.5 | W +17.5 | 147.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 11 | @ LAS | W 77-68 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 14 | @RICH | W 78-67 | -7.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 17 | vs GW | W 89-75 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 20 | @SLU | L 75-88 | +7.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 163 |
| Feb 28 | vsFOR | W 82-63 | -12.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Mar 3 | vsGMU | W 70-65 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Mar 6 | @DAY | W 68-62 | +1.5 | W +7.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Mar 13 | vsDUQ | W 71-66 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Mar 14 | vsJOES | W 77-64 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Mar 15 | vsDAY | W 70-62 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | U 132 |
| Mar 19 | vs UNC | W 82-78 | +2.5 | W +6.5 | 150.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWAG
WAGW 103-74
+3.5
7
vsUSU
USUL 77-80
−0.5
12
vsSPU
SPUW 78-61
−3.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 79-85
+5.5
22
vsCOPP
COPPW 101-58
+10.5
26
vsUSF
USFW 78-66
+10.5
27
vsVAN
VANL 74-89
−8.5
28
vsVT
VTW 86-68
+15.5
5
vsSAM
SAMW 83-57
+6.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 78-81
−11.5
15
vsNIA
NIAW 84-58
−4.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 105-83
+2.5
22
vsRID
RIDW 100-79
−9.5
31
vsSBU
SBUW 89-82
−2.5
3
@DUQ
DUQW 93-80
+7.5
7
vsSLU
SLUL 62-71
−10.5
10
@GMU
GMUL 80-86
−7.5
14
@URI
URIW 84-75
+5.5
19
vsJOES
JOESW 79-72
−7.5
24
@DAV
DAVW 75-69
+0.5
27
vsRICH
RICHW 77-69
−4.5
30
vsLUC
LUCW 89-75
−4.5
3
@FOR
FORW 63-59
−3.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 99-73
+17.5
11
@LAS
LASW 77-68
−3.5
14
@RICH
RICHW 78-67
+3.5
17
vsGW
GWW 89-75
+7.5
20
@SLU
SLUL 75-88
−5.5
28
vsFOR
FORW 82-63
+6.5
3
vsGMU
GMUW 70-65
−4.5
6
@DAY
DAYW 68-62
+7.5
13
vsDUQ
DUQW 71-66
−1.5
14
vsJOES
JOESW 77-64
+6.5
15
vsDAY
DAYW 70-62
+4.5
19
vsUNC
UNCW 82-78
+6.5
covered 18didn’t cover 17avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWAG
WAGW 103-74
+43.5
7
vsUSU
USUL 77-80
−6.5
12
vsSPU
SPUW 78-61
−8.5
17
@NCSU
NCSUL 79-85
−0.5
22
vsCOPP
COPPW 101-58
+7.5
26
vsUSF
USFW 78-66
−28.5
27
vsVAN
VANL 74-89
+1.5
28
vsVT
VTW 86-68
+0.5
5
vsSAM
SAMW 83-57
−14.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 78-81
+1.5
15
vsNIA
NIAW 84-58
−1.5
18
vsAMER
AMERW 105-83
+33.5
22
vsRID
RIDW 100-79
+33.5
31
vsSBU
SBUW 89-82
+13.5
3
@DUQ
DUQW 93-80
+7.5
7
vsSLU
SLUL 62-71
−38.5
10
@GMU
GMUL 80-86
+21.5
14
@URI
URIW 84-75
+11.5
19
vsJOES
JOESW 79-72
−0.5
24
@DAV
DAVW 75-69
−4.5
27
vsRICH
RICHW 77-69
−9.5
30
vsLUC
LUCW 89-75
+13.5
3
@FOR
FORW 63-59
−24.5
6
vsDAY
DAYW 99-73
+24.5
11
@LAS
LASW 77-68
−2.5
14
@RICH
RICHW 78-67
−9.5
17
vsGW
GWW 89-75
+2.5
20
@SLU
SLUL 75-88
−1.5
28
vsFOR
FORW 82-63
+0.5
3
vsGMU
GMUW 70-65
−12.5
6
@DAY
DAYW 68-62
−16.5
13
vsDUQ
DUQW 71-66
−16.5
14
vsJOES
JOESW 77-64
−4.5
15
vsDAY
DAYW 70-62
−7.5
19
vsUNC
UNCW 82-78
+9.5
over 16under 19avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
33 games played
Straight up
25-8
76% wins
Against the spread
19-14
58% covers · avg +2.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-18
45% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vs RUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs MD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @ PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 29 | vs WASH | W 75-66 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | @NEB | W 78-69 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 4 | vsNU | W 84-44 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 7 | @ MSU | L 82-85 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 10 | vs WIS | L 90-92 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 15 | vs IU | W 71-51 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 18 | @ USC | W 101-65 | -8.5 | W +27.5 | 151.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 21 | @ UCLA | L 94-95 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 189 |
| Feb 27 | vs MICH | L 70-84 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Mar 3 | vs ORE | W 80-54 | -17.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 8 | @MD | W 78-72 | -14.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 13 | vsWIS | L 88-91 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
| Mar 19 | vs PENN | W 105-70 | -25.5 | W +9.5 | 150.5 | O 175 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−3.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
+10.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
+23.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
−1.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
−11.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
+11.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+27.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
−7.5
27
vsMICH
MICHL 70-84
−12.5
3
vsORE
OREW 80-54
+8.5
8
@MD
MDW 78-72
−8.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−11.5
19
vsPENN
PENNW 105-70
+9.5
covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−12.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
−7.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
−21.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
+24.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
+28.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
−31.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+14.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
+42.5
27
vsMICH
MICHL 70-84
−5.5
3
vsORE
OREW 80-54
−13.5
8
@MD
MDW 78-72
+4.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+20.5
19
vsPENN
PENNW 105-70
+24.5
over 15under 18avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
VCU
28-7 overall · 18-3 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Carolina82–78
- Wvs Dayton70–62
- Wvs Saint Joseph's77–64
- Wvs Duquesne71–66
- W@ Dayton68–62
2 days since their last game.
Illinois
25-8 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Penn105–70
- Lvs Wisconsin88–91
- W@ Maryland78–72
- Wvs Oregon80–54
- Lvs Michigan70–84
2 days since their last game.