Mackey Arena · at Purdue · Conference game
Closing line
PUR -5.5✓ ILL covered by 11.5
PUR -5.5✓ ILL covered by 11.5Closing total152.5Over by 17.5
 ILL | This season | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| 16-3 | Record | 17-2 |
| 12-7 | ATS | 9-10 |
| 7-12 | O/U | 7-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ILL 74–79 PUR · ✗ PUR (66%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 39 | 49 | 88 |
| PUR | 43 | 39 | 82 |
1st half: ILL 39, PUR 43 (PUR by 4). The model had PUR by 2.8 and a total of 72.0 (actual 82).
Team stats
| ILL | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-56 48% | Field goals | 33-58 57% |
| 18-38 47% | 3-pointers | 7-19 37% |
| 16-22 73% | Free throws | 9-11 82% |
| 33 13 off | Rebounds | 19 3 off |
| 10 | Assists | 19 |
| 0 | Steals | 2 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 14 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 39 | 46 | 0 | 4 | 13-17 | 9-11 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 37 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2-9 | 0-3 |
| Jake Davis F | 30 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-7 |
| David Mirkovic F | 28 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 24 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 20 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Brandon Lee G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Blake Fagbemi, Kylan Boswell, Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd, Ty Rodgers
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith G | 37 | 27 | 3 | 12 | 11-16 | 2-3 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 29 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| C.J. Cox G | 27 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3-7 | 0-3 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 26 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Fletcher Loyer G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Omer Mayer G | 21 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Jack Benter G | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Gicarri Harris G | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jack Lusk, Aaron Fine, Jace Rayl, Antione West Jr, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess, Liam Murphy
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPUR -2.5
3 → PUR
ClosePUR -5.5
3 pts toward PUR
Total
Open150.5
▲ 2
Close152.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
ILL +220 · PUR -270
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PUR -2.5 · closed PUR -5.5 · moved 3 toward PURmodel PUR -5
model PUR -5
Opened 150.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 2 upmodel 153.5
model 153.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | PUR -5.5 | PUR -4.8 | ILL +0.7 | W ILL covered |
| Total | 152.5 | 153.7 | Over 1.2 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | ILL 74.4 · PUR 79.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | PUR -2.8 | PUR -4.0 |
| 1H total | 72.0 | 82 |
| 1H projected score | ILL 34.6 · PUR 37.4 | ILL 39 · PUR 43 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
| PUR | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
ILL 1–5 PURPUR leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · ILL 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024-25 | PUR 80 @ ILL 88 | ILL -4.5 | ILL W |
| Mar 5, 2023-24 | PUR 77 @ ILL 71 | ILL -2.5 | PUR W |
| Jan 5, 2023-24 | ILL 78 @ PUR 83 | PUR -10.5 | ILL W |
| Mar 5, 2022-23 | ILL 71 @ PUR 76 | PUR -6.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 8, 2021-22 | ILL 68 @ PUR 84 | PUR -5.5 | PUR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Illinois
19 games played
Straight up
16-3
84% wins
Against the spread
12-7
63% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-12
37% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vs RUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs MD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
covered 12didn’t cover 7avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
over 7under 12avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Purdue
19 games played
Straight up
17-2
89% wins
Against the spread
9-10
47% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-12
37% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs OAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vsTTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vs ISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vsMINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs MARQ | W 79-59 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs AUB | W 88-60 | -7.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs KENT | W 101-60 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @ WIS | W 89-73 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 7 | vs WASH | W 81-73 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 10 | vsPSU | W 93-85 | -22.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 14 | vsIOWA | W 79-72 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 17 | @ USC | W 69-64 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 20 | @ UCLA | L 67-69 | -5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
+3.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
+20.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+16.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+10.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−8.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
−14.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
−3.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−4.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−7.5
covered 9didn’t cover 10avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
−16.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
−4.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+5.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+8.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−0.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
+25.5
14
vsIOWA
IOWAW 79-72
+5.5
17
@USC
USCW 69-64
−22.5
20
@UCLA
UCLAL 67-69
−11.5
over 7under 12avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Illinois
16-3 overall · 7-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Maryland89–70
- Wvs Minnesota77–67
- W@ Northwestern79–68
- W@ Iowa75–69
- Wvs Rutgers81–55
3 days since their last game.
Purdue
17-2 overall · 7-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UCLA67–69
- W@ USC69–64
- Wvs Iowa79–72
- Wvs Penn State93–85
- Wvs Washington81–73
4 days since their last game.