Mackey Arena · at Purdue · Conference game
Closing line
PUR -10.5✓ IOWA covered by 3.5
PUR -10.5✓ IOWA covered by 3.5Closing total145.5Over by 5.5
 IOWA | This season | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| 12-4 | Record | 15-1 |
| 11-5 | ATS | 9-7 |
| 9-7 | O/U | 6-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: IOWA 69–79 PUR · ✓ PUR (83%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 34 | 38 | 72 |
| PUR | 31 | 48 | 79 |
1st half: IOWA 34, PUR 31 (IOWA by 3). The model had PUR by 6.3 and a total of 69.3 (actual 65).
Team stats
| IOWA | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-51 53% | Field goals | 27-51 53% |
| 12-25 48% | 3-pointers | 6-14 43% |
| 6-10 60% | Free throws | 19-22 86% |
| 23 5 off | Rebounds | 26 6 off |
| 14 | Assists | 20 |
| 6 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| IOWA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kael Combs G | 38 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 6-9 | 4-5 |
| Bennett Stirtz G | 37 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 7-15 | 2-9 |
| Cooper Koch F | 31 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Cam Manyawu F | 31 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-0 |
| Tavion Banks G | 22 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3-6 | 3-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tate Sage G | 21 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-4 |
| Alvaro Folgueiras F | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Isaia Howard G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jacob Koch, Joey Matteoni, Peyton McCollum, Trey Thompson, Trevin Jirak, Brendan Hausen
| PUR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith G | 37 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 6-9 | 0-0 |
| Fletcher Loyer G | 30 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn F | 23 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 4-10 | 0-1 |
| Oscar Cluff C | 22 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| C.J. Cox G | 22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Gicarri Harris G | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Daniel Jacobsen C | 18 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Jack Benter G | 17 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Omer Mayer G | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Raleigh Burgess, Jace Rayl, Aaron Fine, Jack Lusk, Antione West Jr, Liam Murphy, Sam King
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPUR -10.5
ModelPUR -10.8
Model edgePUR +0.3
L IOWA covered
Total
Market145.5
Model147.9
Model edgeOver 2.4
W Over
Projected score
IOWA 68.6 · PUR 79.4
IOWA 72 · PUR 79
Win probability
PUR 83%
1st half
Spread
PUR -6.3
IOWA -3.0
Total
69.3
65 points
Projected score
IOWA 31.5 · PUR 37.8
IOWA 34 · PUR 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPUR -9.5
1 → PUR
ClosePUR -10.5
1 pt toward PUR
Total
Open142.5
▲ 3
Close145.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
IOWA +455 · PUR -625
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PUR -9.5 · closed PUR -10.5 · moved 1 toward PURmodel PUR -11
model PUR -11
Opened 142.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 3 upmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| PUR | 9-1 90% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
IOWA 1–6 PURPUR leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · PUR has won the last 4 meetings · IOWA 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2024-25 | PUR 90 @ IOWA 81 | IOWA +6.5 | PUR W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | PUR 84 @ IOWA 70 | IOWA +7 | PUR W |
| Dec 4, 2023-24 | IOWA 68 @ PUR 87 | PUR -14.5 | PUR W |
| Feb 9, 2022-23 | IOWA 73 @ PUR 87 | PUR -7.5 | PUR W |
| Mar 13, 2021-22 | IOWA 75 vs PUR 66 | PUR -2.5 | IOWA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Iowa
16 games played
Straight up
12-4
75% wins
Against the spread
11-5
69% covers · avg +3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-7
56% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs RMU | W 101-69 | -22.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 7 | vs WIU | W 77-58 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 14 | vs XAV | W 81-62 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs SEMO | W 99-70 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 20 | vs CHST | W 93-54 | -31.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 25 | vs MISS | W 74-69 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs GCU | W 59-46 | -8.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 105 |
| Dec 2 | @ MSU | L 52-71 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs MD | W 83-64 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 137.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 11 | @ ISU | L 62-66 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vs WMU | W 91-51 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 20 | vs BUCK | W 94-39 | -25.5 | W +29.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 29 | vs UML | W 90-62 | -33.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 3 | vs UCLA | W 74-61 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 6 | @ MINN | L 67-70 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 130.5 | O 137 |
| Jan 11 | vs ILL | L 69-75 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+9.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−11.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
+3.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+5.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+7.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+0.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
+4.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−13.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+8.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
+7.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+14.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
+29.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
−5.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
+6.5
6
@MINN
MINNL 67-70
−7.5
11
vsILL
ILLL 69-75
−4.5
covered 11didn’t cover 5avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+33.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−10.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
−0.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+21.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+4.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+2.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
−38.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−10.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+9.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
−13.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+4.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
−0.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
+6.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
−5.5
6
@MINN
MINNL 67-70
+6.5
11
vsILL
ILLL 69-75
+1.5
over 9under 7avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Purdue
16 games played
Straight up
15-1
94% wins
Against the spread
9-7
56% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-10
38% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs EVAN | W 82-51 | -33.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 7 | vs OAK | W 87-77 | -31.5 | L −21.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 13 | @ ALA | W 87-80 | +3.5 | W +10.5 | 172.5 | U 167 |
| Nov 16 | vs AKR | W 97-79 | -18.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 20 | vs MEM | W 80-71 | -14.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 21 | vs TTU | W 86-56 | -3.5 | W +26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 28 | vs EIU | W 109-62 | -40.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 2 | @ RUTG | W 81-65 | -13.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | vsISU | L 58-81 | -4.5 | L −27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 10 | vsMINN | W 85-57 | -19.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs MARQ | W 79-59 | -16.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 20 | vs AUB | W 88-60 | -7.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 29 | vs KENT | W 101-60 | -24.5 | W +16.5 | 155.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 3 | @ WIS | W 89-73 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 153.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 7 | vs WASH | W 81-73 | -16.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 10 | vs PSU | W 93-85 | -22.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | O 178 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−2.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
−21.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
+10.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
−0.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
+26.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+6.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
+2.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−27.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
+8.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
+3.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
+20.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+16.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+10.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−8.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
−14.5
covered 9didn’t cover 7avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEVAN
EVANW 82-51
−17.5
7
vsOAK
OAKW 87-77
+5.5
13
@ALA
ALAW 87-80
−5.5
16
vsAKR
AKRW 97-79
+12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 80-71
−5.5
21
vsTTU
TTUW 86-56
−11.5
28
vsEIU
EIUW 109-62
+29.5
2
@RUTG
RUTGW 81-65
−0.5
6
vsISU
ISUL 58-81
−15.5
10
vsMINN
MINNW 85-57
−1.5
13
vsMARQ
MARQW 79-59
−16.5
20
vsAUB
AUBW 88-60
−4.5
29
vsKENT
KENTW 101-60
+5.5
3
@WIS
WISW 89-73
+8.5
7
vsWASH
WASHW 81-73
−0.5
10
vsPSU
PSUW 93-85
+25.5
over 6under 10avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Iowa
12-4 overall · 2-3 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Illinois69–75
- L@ Minnesota67–70
- Wvs UCLA74–61
- Wvs UMass Lowell90–62
- Wvs Bucknell94–39
3 days since their last game.
Purdue
15-1 overall · 5-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Penn State93–85
- Wvs Washington81–73
- W@ Wisconsin89–73
- Wvs Kent State101–60
- Wvs Auburn88–60
4 days since their last game.