Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 2:00 PM ETMackey Arena · at Purdue · Conference game

Final

#23PURPurdue AP #593▲ winner

Closing linePUR -22.5✓ PSU covered by 14.5

Closing total152.5Over by 25.5

Season records: Penn State and Purdue
PSU	This season	PUR
9-6	Record	14-1
6-9	ATS	9-6
7-8	O/U	5-10

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PSU 66–87 PUR · ✓ PUR (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PSU	44	41	85
PUR	45	48	93

1st half: PSU 44, PUR 45 (PUR by 1). The model had PUR by 12.8 and a total of 71.5 (actual 89).

Team stats

PSU		PUR
32-56 57%	Field goals	38-66 58%
12-27 44%	3-pointers	11-29 38%
9-10 90%	Free throws	6-14 43%
28 5 off	Rebounds	27 8 off
16	Assists	25
2	Steals	7
0	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	3
17	Fouls	10
38	Points in paint	50
4	Fast-break points	10

Players

PSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Freddie Dilione V G	34	25	2	5	10-20	3-8
Ivan Juric F	31	9	10	0	3-5	1-3
Josh Reed F	29	8	1	2	2-3	2-3
Eli Rice G	27	11	4	0	4-6	3-4
Dominick Stewart G	21	3	3	3	0-4	0-2
Bench
Melih Tunca G	25	14	3	3	6-9	2-4
Mason Blackwood F	21	9	3	3	4-5	1-2
Sasa Ciani F	12	6	1	0	3-4	0-1

Did not play: Kayden Mingo, Justin Houser, Reggie Grodin, Tibor Mirtic, Chris Lotito

PUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braden Smith G	39	26	1	14	11-18	4-8
Fletcher Loyer G	32	17	0	2	6-10	4-8
Oscar Cluff C	30	23	7	2	10-11	0-0
Trey Kaufman-Renn F	27	7	9	4	3-6	0-0
C.J. Cox G	26	16	4	1	6-11	3-8
Bench
Gicarri Harris G	14	2	1	2	1-4	0-2
Jack Benter G	13	0	2	0	0-2	0-2
Daniel Jacobsen C	10	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Omer Mayer G	9	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Liam Murphy, Jace Rayl, Antione West Jr, Aaron Fine, Jack Lusk, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PUR -22.5	PUR -21.6	PSU +0.9	W PSU covered
Total	152.5	152.8	Over 0.3	W Over
Projected score	—	PSU 65.6 · PUR 87.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PUR -12.8	PUR -1.0
1H total	71.5	89
1H projected score	PSU 29.4 · PUR 42.1	PSU 44 · PUR 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU WLLWW	6-9	40%	1-1	3-2
PUR WWWWL	9-6	60%	4-5	8-6

Venue/role: PSU away, as underdog; PUR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OUOUU	7-8	47%	9-6
PUR UUOOU	5-10	33%	14-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
PUR	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

PSU 1–6 PURPUR leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · PSU 5-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 5, 2024-25	PUR 70 @ PSU 81	PSU -2.5	PSU W
Jan 13, 2023-24	PSU 78 @ PUR 95	PUR -18.5	PSU W
Mar 12, 2022-23	PSU 65 vs PUR 67	PUR -7.5	PSU W
Feb 1, 2022-23	PSU 60 @ PUR 80	PUR -9.5	PUR W
Jan 8, 2022-23	PUR 76 @ PSU 63	PSU +5.5	PUR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Penn State

15 games played

Straight up

9-6

60% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-660%

W W W W W L W W W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-940%

L W L W L L L W L L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-847%

U U U O O U O U O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsSHU	W 90-59	-14.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsCAM	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 9	@IU	L 72-113	+14.5	L −26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsMSU	L 72-76	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsPITT	L 46-80	-1.5	L −35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsNCCU	W 90-67	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsILL	L 65-73	+14.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsMICH	L 72-74	+24.5	W +22.5	169.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

SHU

W 90-59

+16.5

CAM

W 87-76

−3.5

L 72-113

−26.5

MSU

L 72-76

+8.5

PITT

L 46-80

−35.5

NCCU

W 90-67

−0.5

ILL

L 65-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-74

+22.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

SHU

W 90-59

−11.5

CAM

W 87-76

+8.5

L 72-113

+32.5

MSU

L 72-76

+2.5

PITT

L 46-80

−20.5

NCCU

W 90-67

+6.5

ILL

L 65-73

−18.5

MICH

L 72-74

−23.5

over 7under 8avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Purdue

15 games played

Straight up

14-1

93% wins

Against the spread

9-6

60% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-10

33% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-193%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-660%

L L W L L W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-1033%

U O U O U U O U U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEVAN	W 82-51	-33.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsOAK	W 87-77	-31.5	L −21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 13	@ALA	W 87-80	+3.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 167
Nov 16	vsAKR	W 97-79	-18.5	L −0.5	163.5	O 176
Nov 20	vsMEM	W 80-71	-14.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 21	vsTTU	W 86-56	-3.5	W +26.5	153.5	U 142
Nov 28	vsEIU	W 109-62	-40.5	W +6.5	141.5	O 171
Dec 2	@RUTG	W 81-65	-13.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 6	vsISU	L 58-81	-4.5	L −27.5	154.5	U 139
Dec 10	vsMINN	W 85-57	-19.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsMARQ	W 79-59	-16.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 138
Dec 20	vsAUB	W 88-60	-7.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 29	vsKENT	W 101-60	-24.5	W +16.5	155.5	O 161
Jan 3	@WIS	W 89-73	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 7	vsWASH	W 81-73	-16.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−2.5

OAK

W 87-77

−21.5

ALA

W 87-80

+10.5

AKR

W 97-79

−0.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

TTU

W 86-56

+26.5

EIU

W 109-62

+6.5

RUTG

W 81-65

+2.5

ISU

L 58-81

−27.5

MINN

W 85-57

+8.5

MARQ

W 79-59

+3.5

AUB

W 88-60

+20.5

KENT

W 101-60

+16.5

WIS

W 89-73

+10.5

WASH

W 81-73

−8.5

covered 9didn’t cover 6avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−17.5

OAK

W 87-77

+5.5

ALA

W 87-80

−5.5

AKR

W 97-79

+12.5

MEM

W 80-71

−5.5

TTU

W 86-56

−11.5

EIU

W 109-62

+29.5

RUTG

W 81-65

−0.5

ISU

L 58-81

−15.5

MINN

W 85-57

−1.5

MARQ

W 79-59

−16.5

AUB

W 88-60

−4.5

KENT

W 101-60

+5.5

WIS

W 89-73

+8.5

WASH

W 81-73

−0.5

over 5under 10avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Penn State @ Purdue

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Penn State

Purdue

Penn State

Purdue