Bon Secours Wellness Arena · Neutral site · NCAA Tournament
Closing line
ILL -25.5✓ ILL covered by 9.5
ILL -25.5✓ ILL covered by 9.5Closing total150.5Over by 24.5
 PENN | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 17-11 | Record | 24-8 |
| 20-8 | ATS | 18-14 |
| 7-21 | O/U | 14-18 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: PENN 65–90 ILL · ✓ ILL (98%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENN | 30 | 40 | 70 |
| ILL | 40 | 65 | 105 |
1st half: PENN 30, ILL 40 (ILL by 10). The model had ILL by 14.5 and a total of 72.3 (actual 70).
Team stats
| PENN | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-67 45% | Field goals | 37-74 50% |
| 9-30 30% | 3-pointers | 15-36 42% |
| 1-2 50% | Free throws | 16-21 76% |
| 25 7 off | Rebounds | 48 20 off |
| 13 | Assists | 15 |
| 2 | Steals | 2 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 10 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| PENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Power F | 30 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-8 | 2-5 |
| Michael Zanoni G | 30 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 9-18 | 2-6 |
| Cam Thrower G | 24 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 6-10 | 1-2 |
| AJ Levine G | 19 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2-10 | 1-7 |
| Augustus Gerhart F | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Lucas Lueth F | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| Niklas Polonowski G | 15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Dalton Scantlebury F | 14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Jay Jones G | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Michelangelo Oberti F | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Johnnie Walter F | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Alex Massung G | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| William Kruse F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chris Ubochi, Bradyn Foster, Ryan Altman, Dylan Williams, Payton Kamin, Ethan Roberts
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 31 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 7-14 | 4-7 |
| David Mirkovic F | 28 | 29 | 17 | 3 | 11-17 | 4-7 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 27 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 21 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-4 |
| Jake Davis F | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 22 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 20 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-2 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 20 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-9 | 4-8 |
| Brandon Lee G | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Mihailo Petrovic G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Blake Fagbemi G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| AJ Redd G | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ty Rodgers, Jason Jakstys
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -20.5
5 → ILL
CloseILL -25.5
5 pts toward ILL
Total
Open149.5
▲ 1
Close150.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
PENN +3000 · ILL -10000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -20.5 · closed ILL -25.5 · moved 5 toward ILLmodel ILL -24.5
model ILL -24.5
Opened 149.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 1 upmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ILL -25.5 | ILL -24.6 | PENN +0.9 | L ILL covered |
| Total | 150.5 | 154.8 | Over 4.3 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | PENN 65.1 · ILL 89.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ILL -14.5 | ILL -10.0 |
| 1H total | 72.3 | 70 |
| 1H projected score | PENN 28.9 · ILL 43.4 | PENN 30 · ILL 40 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PENN | 9-1 90% | 9-1 90% | 1-9 10% |
| ILL | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Penn
28 games played
Straight up
17-11
61% wins
Against the spread
20-8
71% covers · avg +4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-21
25% overs · avg −4.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | @ AMER | L 78-84 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | @ PROV | L 81-106 | +19.5 | L −5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 17 | vs JOES | W 83-74 | +5.5 | W +14.5 | 163.5 | U 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ DREX | W 84-68 | +4.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 28 | vs MRMK | W 77-65 | -2.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 29 | vs LAS | W 73-71 | -1.5 | W +0.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 30 | vs HOF | L 60-77 | +1.5 | L −15.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 6 | @ VILL | L 63-90 | +18.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 8 | vs LAF | W 74-72 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 20 | @ RUTG | L 69-70 | +11.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 28 | @ GMU | L 79-83 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 146.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 31 | vs NJIT | W 80-61 | -14.5 | W +4.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 5 | @ PRIN | L 76-78 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 10 | vs BRWN | W 81-73 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 145.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 17 | @ DART | W 84-74 | +2.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 158 |
| Jan 19 | @ HARV | L 63-64 | +5.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 24 | vs YALE | L 60-77 | +6.5 | L −10.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 30 | @ COLU | L 67-72 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 31 | @ COR | W 91-81 | +7.5 | W +17.5 | 173.5 | U 172 |
| Feb 7 | vsPRIN | W 61-60 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | U 121 |
| Feb 13 | vsCOLU | W 76-67 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 14 | vsCOR | W 82-76 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 169.5 | U 158 |
| Feb 21 | @YALE | L 70-74 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 27 | vsDART | W 80-71 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | U 151 |
| Feb 28 | vsHARV | W 64-61 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 138.5 | U 125 |
| Mar 6 | @BRWN | W 82-61 | +1.5 | W +22.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Mar 14 | vsHARV | W 62-60 | +3.5 | W +5.5 | 139.5 | U 122 |
| Mar 15 | vsYALE | W 88-84 | +9.5 | W +13.5 | 144.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@AMER
AMERL 78-84
−7.5
11
@PROV
PROVL 81-106
−5.5
17
vsJOES
JOESW 83-74
+14.5
21
@DREX
DREXW 84-68
+20.5
28
vsMRMK
MRMKW 77-65
+9.5
29
vsLAS
LASW 73-71
+0.5
30
vsHOF
HOFL 60-77
−15.5
6
@VILL
VILLL 63-90
−8.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 74-72
−5.5
20
@RUTG
RUTGL 69-70
+10.5
28
@GMU
GMUL 79-83
+12.5
31
vsNJIT
NJITW 80-61
+4.5
5
@PRIN
PRINL 76-78
+1.5
10
vsBRWN
BRWNW 81-73
+2.5
17
@DART
DARTW 84-74
+12.5
19
@HARV
HARVL 63-64
+4.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 60-77
−10.5
30
@COLU
COLUL 67-72
−0.5
31
@COR
CORW 91-81
+17.5
7
vsPRIN
PRINW 61-60
−2.5
13
vsCOLU
COLUW 76-67
+7.5
14
vsCOR
CORW 82-76
+8.5
21
@YALE
YALEL 70-74
+5.5
27
vsDART
DARTW 80-71
+2.5
28
vsHARV
HARVW 64-61
+1.5
6
@BRWN
BRWNW 82-61
+22.5
14
vsHARV
HARVW 62-60
+5.5
15
vsYALE
YALEW 88-84
+13.5
covered 20didn’t cover 8avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@AMER
AMERL 78-84
+7.5
11
@PROV
PROVL 81-106
+14.5
17
vsJOES
JOESW 83-74
−6.5
21
@DREX
DREXW 84-68
−0.5
28
vsMRMK
MRMKW 77-65
−10.5
29
vsLAS
LASW 73-71
−5.5
30
vsHOF
HOFL 60-77
−12.5
6
@VILL
VILLL 63-90
+2.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 74-72
−4.5
20
@RUTG
RUTGL 69-70
−11.5
28
@GMU
GMUL 79-83
+15.5
31
vsNJIT
NJITW 80-61
−10.5
5
@PRIN
PRINL 76-78
+8.5
10
vsBRWN
BRWNW 81-73
+8.5
17
@DART
DARTW 84-74
−5.5
19
@HARV
HARVL 63-64
−23.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 60-77
−20.5
30
@COLU
COLUL 67-72
−14.5
31
@COR
CORW 91-81
−1.5
7
vsPRIN
PRINW 61-60
−23.5
13
vsCOLU
COLUW 76-67
−5.5
14
vsCOR
CORW 82-76
−11.5
21
@YALE
YALEL 70-74
−6.5
27
vsDART
DARTW 80-71
−3.5
28
vsHARV
HARVW 64-61
−13.5
6
@BRWN
BRWNW 82-61
−3.5
14
vsHARV
HARVW 62-60
−17.5
15
vsYALE
YALEW 88-84
+27.5
over 7under 21avg −4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
32 games played
Straight up
24-8
75% wins
Against the spread
18-14
56% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-18
44% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | vs NEB | L 80-83 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 22 | vs MIZ | W 91-48 | -8.5 | W +34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 29 | vs SOU | W 90-55 | -33.5 | W +1.5 | 163.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 3 | @ PSU | W 73-65 | -14.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 8 | vsRUTG | W 81-55 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 11 | @ IOWA | W 75-69 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 14 | @ NU | W 79-68 | -9.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Jan 17 | vs MINN | W 77-67 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 21 | vs MD | W 89-70 | -18.5 | W +0.5 | 152.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 24 | @ PUR | W 88-82 | +5.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 29 | vs WASH | W 75-66 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 141 |
| Feb 1 | @NEB | W 78-69 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 4 | vsNU | W 84-44 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 149.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 7 | @ MSU | L 82-85 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 167 |
| Feb 10 | vs WIS | L 90-92 | -9.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 182 |
| Feb 15 | vs IU | W 71-51 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | U 122 |
| Feb 18 | @ USC | W 101-65 | -8.5 | W +27.5 | 151.5 | O 166 |
| Feb 21 | @ UCLA | L 94-95 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 189 |
| Feb 27 | vs MICH | L 70-84 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | U 154 |
| Mar 3 | vs ORE | W 80-54 | -17.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Mar 8 | @MD | W 78-72 | -14.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Mar 13 | vsWIS | L 88-91 | -8.5 | L −11.5 | 158.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
−12.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
+34.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
+1.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−6.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
+3.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+4.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
+1.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
−5.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+0.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+11.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−3.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
+10.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
+23.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
−1.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
−11.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
+11.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+27.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
−7.5
27
vsMICH
MICHL 70-84
−12.5
3
vsORE
OREW 80-54
+8.5
8
@MD
MDW 78-72
−8.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
−11.5
covered 18didn’t cover 14avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
13
vsNEB
NEBL 80-83
+6.5
22
vsMIZ
MIZW 91-48
−14.5
29
vsSOU
SOUW 90-55
−18.5
3
@PSU
PSUW 73-65
−18.5
8
vsRUTG
RUTGW 81-55
−13.5
11
@IOWA
IOWAW 75-69
+1.5
14
@NU
NUW 79-68
−4.5
17
vsMINN
MINNW 77-67
+1.5
21
vsMD
MDW 89-70
+6.5
24
@PUR
PURW 88-82
+17.5
29
vsWASH
WASHW 75-66
−12.5
1
@NEB
NEBW 78-69
−7.5
4
vsNU
NUW 84-44
−21.5
7
@MSU
MSUL 82-85
+24.5
10
vsWIS
WISL 90-92
+28.5
15
vsIU
IUW 71-51
−31.5
18
@USC
USCW 101-65
+14.5
21
@UCLA
UCLAL 94-95
+42.5
27
vsMICH
MICHL 70-84
−5.5
3
vsORE
OREW 80-54
−13.5
8
@MD
MDW 78-72
+4.5
13
vsWIS
WISL 88-91
+20.5
over 14under 18avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Penn
17-11 overall · 11-5 in conference · Ivy League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Yale88–84
- Wvs Harvard62–60
- W@ Brown82–61
- Wvs Harvard64–61
- Wvs Dartmouth80–71
4 days since their last game.
Illinois
24-8 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Wisconsin88–91
- W@ Maryland78–72
- Wvs Oregon80–54
- Lvs Michigan70–84
- L@ UCLA94–95
6 days since their last game.