Pennsylvania Quakers at Princeton Tigers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Jan 5, 7:00 PM ETJadwin Gymnasium · at Princeton · Conference game

#137PENNPenn76final

Final

#135PRINPrinceton78▲ winner

Closing linePRIN -3.5✓ PENN covered by 1.5

Closing total145.5Over by 8.5

Season records: Penn and Princeton
PENN	This season	PRIN
6-6	Record	3-11
7-5	ATS	10-4
4-8	O/U	7-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PENN 72–74 PRIN · ✓ PRIN (55%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PENN	32	44	76
PRIN	24	54	78

1st half: PENN 32, PRIN 24 (PENN by 8). The model had PRIN by 0.8 and a total of 68.5 (actual 56).

Team stats

PENN		PRIN
26-57 46%	Field goals	28-52 54%
5-12 42%	3-pointers	7-19 37%
19-19 100%	Free throws	15-23 65%
35 13 off	Rebounds	23 6 off
11	Assists	11
4	Steals	5
2	Blocks	4
13	Turnovers	10
19	Fouls	16
30	Points in paint	42
0	Fast-break points	5

Players

PENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Power F	38	13	7	2	6-12	1-4
Ethan Roberts G	38	19	2	4	5-12	1-1
AJ Levine G	27	15	2	4	4-9	2-5
Michael Zanoni G	26	13	1	0	6-8	1-2
Augustus Gerhart F	10	2	5	1	1-4	0-0
Bench
Dalton Scantlebury F	30	12	7	0	3-8	0-0
Lucas Lueth F	16	0	5	0	0-2	0-0
Cam Thrower G	12	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Niklas Polonowski G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jay Jones G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: William Kruse, Payton Kamin, Ryan Altman, Michelangelo Oberti, Bradyn Foster, Dylan Williams, Alex Massung, Johnnie Walter, Chris Ubochi

PRIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Hicke G	37	8	3	4	3-7	1-3
Jack Stanton G	35	23	3	1	7-12	3-7
Malik Abdullahi F	34	11	5	1	3-4	0-0
Landon Clark G	29	3	1	2	1-2	0-0
CJ Happy F	14	9	0	0	4-6	1-2
Bench
Jacob Huggins F	26	5	7	3	2-5	0-0
Dalen Davis G	21	19	1	0	8-13	2-5
Sebastian Whitfield G	4	0	1	0	0-3	0-2

Did not play: Jake Sussberg, Ryan Mandes, Cash McSweeney, Will Kutzler, Cooper Mueller, Zio Kim, Peyton Seals, Jacob Hammond

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PRIN -3.5	PRIN -1.5	PENN +2.0	W PENN covered
Total	145.5	146.3	Over 0.8	W Over
Projected score	—	PENN 72.4 · PRIN 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRIN -0.8	PENN -8.0
1H total	68.5	56
1H projected score	PENN 33.9 · PRIN 34.7	PENN 32 · PRIN 24

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PENN LLWWW	7-5	58%	3-3	4-3
PRIN WWLWW	10-4	71%	3-1	2-1

Venue/role: PENN away, as underdog; PRIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PENN OUUOU	4-8	33%	6-6
PRIN UOUUO	7-7	50%	3-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PENN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
PRIN	2-8 20%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

PENN 0–9 PRINPRIN leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · PRIN has won the last 9 meetings · PENN 2-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2024-25	PENN 71 @ PRIN 95	PRIN -8.5	PRIN W
Feb 7, 2024-25	PRIN 61 @ PENN 59	PENN +8.5	PENN W
Mar 9, 2023-24	PRIN 105 @ PENN 83	PENN +6.5	PRIN W
Feb 10, 2023-24	PENN 70 @ PRIN 77	PRIN -10.5	PENN W
Mar 11, 2022-23	PENN 70 @ PRIN 77	PRIN -1.5	PRIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Penn

12 games played

Straight up

6-6

50% wins

Against the spread

7-5

58% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-8

33% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-650%

L L W W W W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-558%

L L W W W W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-833%

O O U U U U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@AMER	L 78-84	-1.5	L −7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 11	@PROV	L 81-106	+19.5	L −5.5	172.5	O 187
Nov 17	vsJOES	W 83-74	+5.5	W +14.5	163.5	U 157
Nov 21	@DREX	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Nov 28	vsMRMK	W 77-65	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	U 142
Nov 29	vsLAS	W 73-71	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 30	vsHOF	L 60-77	+1.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 137
Dec 6	@VILL	L 63-90	+18.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 8	vsLAF	W 74-72	-7.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 20	@RUTG	L 69-70	+11.5	W +10.5	150.5	U 139
Dec 28	@GMU	L 79-83	+16.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	vsNJIT	W 80-61	-14.5	W +4.5	151.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

−7.5

PROV

L 81-106

−5.5

JOES

W 83-74

+14.5

DREX

W 84-68

+20.5

MRMK

W 77-65

+9.5

LAS

W 73-71

+0.5

HOF

L 60-77

−15.5

VILL

L 63-90

−8.5

LAF

W 74-72

−5.5

RUTG

L 69-70

+10.5

GMU

L 79-83

+12.5

NJIT

W 80-61

+4.5

covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AMER

L 78-84

+7.5

PROV

L 81-106

+14.5

JOES

W 83-74

−6.5

DREX

W 84-68

−0.5

MRMK

W 77-65

−10.5

LAS

W 73-71

−5.5

HOF

L 60-77

−12.5

VILL

L 63-90

+2.5

LAF

W 74-72

−4.5

RUTG

L 69-70

−11.5

GMU

L 79-83

+15.5

NJIT

W 80-61

−10.5

over 4under 8avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Princeton

14 games played

Straight up

3-11

21% wins

Against the spread

10-4

71% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg −4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1121%

L W L L W L L L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

10-471%

L W W L W L W W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-750%

O U U O U O O O U U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 24	vsBRAD	L 64-88	+9.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTEM	L 75-79	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsUVM	L 74-79	+5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsJOES	L 58-60	+5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 118
Dec 3	@MONM	L 58-63	+5.5	W +0.5	139.5	U 121
Dec 6	@LUC	L 68-73	+6.5	W +1.5	136.5	O 141
Dec 10	vsMRMK	L 56-59	-2.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 115
Dec 22	@TEM	L 61-65	+8.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsUVM	W 75-69	+3.5	W +9.5	136.5	O 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

BRAD

L 64-88

−14.5

TEM

L 75-79

+4.5

UVM

L 74-79

+0.5

JOES

L 58-60

+3.5

MONM

L 58-63

+0.5

LUC

L 68-73

+1.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−5.5

TEM

L 61-65

+4.5

UVM

W 75-69

+9.5

covered 10didn’t cover 4avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

BRAD

L 64-88

+10.5

TEM

L 75-79

+8.5

UVM

L 74-79

+12.5

JOES

L 58-60

−28.5

MONM

L 58-63

−18.5

LUC

L 68-73

+4.5

MRMK

L 56-59

−19.5

TEM

L 61-65

−13.5

UVM

W 75-69

+7.5

over 7under 7avg −4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Pennsylvania Quakers at Princeton Tigers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Penn

Princeton

Penn

Princeton