Princeton Tigers at Monmouth Hawks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 8:00 PM ETOceanFirst Bank Center · at Monmouth

#135PRINPrinceton58final

Final

#155MONMMonmouth63▲ winner

Closing lineMONM -5.5✓ PRIN covered by 0.5

Closing total139.5Under by 18.5

Season records: Princeton and Monmouth
PRIN	This season	MONM
2-7	Record	3-4
6-3	ATS	4-3
5-4	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PRIN 70–76 MONM · ✓ MONM (68%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PRIN	27	31	58
MONM	31	32	63

1st half: PRIN 27, MONM 31 (MONM by 4). The model had MONM by 3.1 and a total of 68.2 (actual 58).

Team stats

PRIN		MONM
22-51 43%	Field goals	22-54 41%
8-24 33%	3-pointers	3-14 21%
6-9 67%	Free throws	16-19 84%
33 6 off	Rebounds	30 6 off
13	Assists	10
5	Steals	12
2	Blocks	3
19	Turnovers	9
18	Fouls	10
28	Points in paint	32
4	Fast-break points	21

Players

PRIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Hicke G	39	7	6	1	3-6	1-1
Jack Stanton G	38	14	9	3	5-10	2-5
Landon Clark G	37	6	4	2	2-5	1-3
Sebastian Whitfield G	25	5	6	1	2-7	0-4
CJ Happy F	25	20	3	4	7-13	4-8
Bench
Jacob Huggins F	15	4	1	2	2-4	0-0
Jacob Hammond F	14	2	3	0	1-5	0-2
Jake Sussberg G	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Cash McSweeney F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cooper Mueller, Will Kutzler, Malik Abdullahi, Ryan Mandes, Zio Kim, Dalen Davis, Peyton Seals

MONM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jason Rivera-Torres G	38	20	5	3	6-15	1-4
Jack Collins G	37	4	3	2	1-5	1-4
Justin Ray G	32	7	2	1	3-7	1-3
Stefanos Spartalis F	24	9	5	0	3-9	0-0
Andrew Ball F	21	6	4	0	3-5	0-1
Bench
Cornelius Robinson III F	26	13	5	3	4-9	0-2
Dok Muordar C	10	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Jinup Dobuol G	7	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Anthony Martinez G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Corey Miller, Zubayr Griffin, Kavion McClain, Lucas Orchard, Jack Leahy, Quinn Peters, O'Marion Harvey

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MONM -5.5	MONM -5.5	—	PRIN covered
Total	139.5	145.5	Over 6.0	L Under
Projected score	—	PRIN 70 · MONM 75.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MONM -3.1	MONM -4.0
1H total	68.2	58
1H projected score	PRIN 32.5 · MONM 35.7	PRIN 27 · MONM 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRIN WLWWW	6-3	67%	1-2	4-3
MONM WLWLW	4-3	57%	0-1	2-2

Venue/role: PRIN away, as underdog; MONM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRIN UOOOU	5-4	56%	2-7
MONM OUOOO	4-3	57%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRINlast 9	2-7 22%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%
MONMlast 7	3-4 43%	4-3 57%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

PRIN 3–1 MONMPRIN leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · PRIN has won the last 3 meetings · PRIN 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 10, 2024-25	MONM 67 @ PRIN 71	PRIN -13.5	MONM W
Nov 18, 2023-24	PRIN 82 @ MONM 57	MONM +8.5	PRIN W
Dec 10, 2022-23	MONM 54 @ PRIN 91	PRIN -15.5	PRIN W
Nov 24, 2021-22	PRIN 64 @ MONM 76	MONM -1	MONM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Princeton

9 games played

Straight up

2-7

22% wins

Against the spread

6-3

67% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-4

56% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-722%

L W L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-367%

L W W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-456%

O U U O U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AKR	L 69-104	+13.5	L −21.5	156.5	O 173
Nov 11	vsBUCK	W 73-63	-4.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 15	@KU	L 57-76	+22.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	@IONA	L 69-89	+2.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 20	vsNE	W 70-57	-2.5	W +10.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 24	vsBRAD	L 64-88	+9.5	L −14.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTEM	L 75-79	+8.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 154
Nov 26	vsUVM	L 74-79	+5.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsJOES	L 58-60	+5.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

−21.5

BUCK

W 73-63

+5.5

L 57-76

+3.5

IONA

L 69-89

−17.5

W 70-57

+10.5

BRAD

L 64-88

−14.5

TEM

L 75-79

+4.5

UVM

L 74-79

+0.5

JOES

L 58-60

+3.5

covered 6didn’t cover 3avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

L 69-104

+16.5

BUCK

W 73-63

−10.5

L 57-76

−11.5

IONA

L 69-89

+3.5

W 70-57

−18.5

BRAD

L 64-88

+10.5

TEM

L 75-79

+8.5

UVM

L 74-79

+12.5

JOES

L 58-60

−28.5

over 5under 4avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Monmouth

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L L L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-357%

L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@LAS	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 13	@HALL	L 58-70	+15.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 18	@SYR	L 73-78	+21.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsRMU	W 71-70	-2.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsBALL	W 80-73	-2.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 153
Nov 29	vsLEM	L 79-83	-6.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 162
Nov 30	@LAF	W 88-74	-1.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−8.5

HALL

L 58-70

+3.5

SYR

L 73-78

+16.5

RMU

W 71-70

−1.5

BALL

W 80-73

+4.5

LEM

L 79-83

−10.5

LAF

W 88-74

+12.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−10.5

HALL

L 58-70

−7.5

SYR

L 73-78

+5.5

RMU

W 71-70

−7.5

BALL

W 80-73

+16.5

LEM

L 79-83

+16.5

LAF

W 88-74

+20.5

over 4under 3avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Princeton Tigers at Monmouth Hawks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Princeton

Monmouth

Princeton

Monmouth