Idaho State Bengals at Kansas City Roos: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 8:00 PM ETSwinney Center · at Kansas City

#344IDSTIdaho St68▲ winner

Final

Closing lineIDST -5.5✓ IDST covered by 3.5

Closing total137.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Idaho St and Kansas City
IDST	This season	KC
2-4	Record	0-6
5-1	ATS	1-5
2-4	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: IDST 73–67 KC · ✓ IDST (70%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
IDST	25	43	68
KC	29	30	59

1st half: IDST 25, KC 29 (KC by 4). The model had IDST by 3.8 and a total of 66.0 (actual 54).

Team stats

IDST		KC
26-57 46%	Field goals	22-50 44%
7-28 25%	3-pointers	3-13 23%
9-12 75%	Free throws	12-16 75%
37 15 off	Rebounds	27 9 off
14	Assists	10
7	Steals	7
4	Blocks	0
12	Turnovers	13
18	Fouls	17
38	Points in paint	30
8	Fast-break points	8

Players

IDST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lachlan Brewer G	35	11	5	2	4-10	1-3
Martin Kheil G	34	10	5	2	4-13	2-11
Jamison Guerra PG	33	10	3	5	4-7	2-3
Connor Hollenbeck F	23	12	1	1	4-7	2-4
Evan Otten F	16	3	6	1	1-1	0-0
Bench
Caleb Van De Griend F	21	14	10	1	7-11	0-3
Cheikh Sow G	15	2	2	0	0-1	0-1
Quin Patterson F	9	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Blake Daberkow F	7	6	1	1	2-3	0-0
Gus Etchison G	7	0	0	1	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Landen Birley, Trey Arland, Louis Bond, Kasen Carpenter, Jaedyn Brown

KC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kasheem Grady II G	38	19	3	2	7-11	2-4
Jerome Palm F	33	13	3	1	6-13	0-1
Jayson Petty G	32	6	5	2	1-6	0-3
CJ Evans G	31	11	2	4	5-9	1-2
Chris Dockery F	26	4	7	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Jamaria Clark G	22	2	3	1	0-4	0-3
Baba Mbengue C	7	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
D'Andre Harrison F	7	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Kernan Bundy G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Trey Booker-Lowery, Cory Curtis Jr., Karmello Branch, Max Sims, Addarin Scott, Jason Hilliard

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	IDST -5.5	IDST -6.0	IDST +0.5	W IDST covered
Total	137.5	140.8	Over 3.3	L Under
Projected score	—	IDST 73.4 · KC 67.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IDST -3.8	KC -4.0
1H total	66.0	54
1H projected score	IDST 34.9 · KC 31.1	IDST 25 · KC 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IDST WWWLW	5-1	83%	4-0	1-0
KC LWLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	1-5

Venue/role: IDST away, as favorite; KC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IDST UOUOU	2-4	33%	2-4
KC OUUUU	2-4	33%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IDSTlast 6	2-4 33%	5-1 83%	2-4 33%
KClast 6	0-6 0%	1-5 17%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

IDST 1–1 KCSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · IDST 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2022-23	IDST 75 @ KC 65	KC -5.5	IDST W
Nov 22, 2021-22	KC 74 @ IDST 58	IDST -2	KC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Idaho St

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +8.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

W L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-183%

W W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USD	W 71-68	+4.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 139
Nov 9	@SDSU	L 57-73	+21.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 130
Nov 15	@SEA	L 74-83	+11.5	W +2.5	138.5	O 157
Nov 18	@SCU	L 55-64	+14.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 26	vsSHSU	L 81-84	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsCSUN	W 82-50	-1.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USD

W 71-68

+7.5

SDSU

L 57-73

+5.5

SEA

L 74-83

+2.5

SCU

L 55-64

+5.5

SHSU

L 81-84

−1.5

CSUN

W 82-50

+30.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USD

W 71-68

−13.5

SDSU

L 57-73

−5.5

SEA

L 74-83

+18.5

SCU

L 55-64

−22.5

SHSU

L 81-84

+22.5

CSUN

W 82-50

−16.5

over 2under 4avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kansas City

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@SIU	L 78-101	+12.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 179
Nov 11	vsIONA	L 91-105	+4.5	L −9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 15	@TEX	L 55-71	+31.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 19	@TCU	L 45-81	+23.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 126
Nov 24	@LIN	L 67-80	+4.5	L −8.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 29	@WEB	L 61-82	+10.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

−10.5

IONA

L 91-105

−9.5

TEX

L 55-71

+15.5

TCU

L 45-81

−12.5

LIN

L 67-80

−8.5

WEB

L 61-82

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIU

L 78-101

+37.5

IONA

L 91-105

+39.5

TEX

L 55-71

−33.5

TCU

L 45-81

−24.5

LIN

L 67-80

−5.5

WEB

L 61-82

−12.5

over 2under 4avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Idaho State Bengals at Kansas City Roos

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Idaho St

Kansas City

Idaho St

Kansas City