Monmouth Hawks at Lafayette Leopards: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 30, 2:30 PM ETKirby Sports Center · at Lafayette

#155MONMMonmouth88▲ winner

Final

#310LAFLafayette74final

Closing lineMONM -1.5✓ MONM covered by 12.5

Closing total141.5Over by 20.5

Season records: Monmouth and Lafayette
MONM	This season	LAF
2-4	Record	1-6
3-3	ATS	3-4
3-3	O/U	5-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MONM 74–69 LAF · ✓ MONM (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MONM	41	47	88
LAF	32	42	74

1st half: MONM 41, LAF 32 (MONM by 9). The model had MONM by 2.9 and a total of 67.2 (actual 73).

Team stats

MONM		LAF
29-49 59%	Field goals	24-56 43%
8-14 57%	3-pointers	9-23 39%
22-31 71%	Free throws	17-22 77%
30 5 off	Rebounds	24 7 off
19	Assists	13
6	Steals	5
4	Blocks	0
11	Turnovers	12
18	Fouls	20
32	Points in paint	22
12	Fast-break points	5

Players

MONM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jason Rivera-Torres G	37	20	6	2	7-12	3-6
Jack Collins G	34	5	4	12	1-2	1-2
Andrew Ball F	25	12	10	3	4-9	0-1
Justin Ray G	23	21	3	2	7-7	3-3
Stefanos Spartalis F	18	12	1	0	4-8	0-0
Bench
Cornelius Robinson III F	21	9	1	0	3-6	0-0
Dok Muordar C	20	6	2	0	2-3	0-0
Anthony Martinez G	9	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jinup Dobuol G	7	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
O'Marion Harvey F	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Quinn Peters, Zubayr Griffin, Lucas Orchard, Corey Miller, Kavion McClain, Jack Leahy

LAF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Christian Humphrey-Rembert F	36	11	3	0	3-7	3-6
Caleb Williams G	33	16	1	2	6-16	4-9
Mark Butler G	33	13	1	4	4-9	0-0
Andrew Phillips G	32	9	6	3	3-11	2-7
Shareef Jackson F	19	11	4	2	5-9	0-0
Bench
Luke Bevilacqua F	11	7	1	0	2-2	0-0
Ryan Pettit G	10	3	2	0	0-0	0-0
Misha Bednostin C	9	2	3	1	0-0	0-0
Folabomi Fayemi G	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ashton Wallace G	6	2	1	1	1-2	0-1
Malik Rasul F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Justin Vander Baan, Beckett Currie, KaiMani Murdock, Luke Azzinaro, Chris Rubayo, Luka Savicevic, Joshua Wyche, TJ Berger

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MONM -1.5	MONM -4.6	MONM +3.1	W MONM covered
Total	141.5	143.4	Over 1.9	W Over
Projected score	—	MONM 74 · LAF 69.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MONM -2.9	MONM -9.0
1H total	67.2	73
1H projected score	MONM 35.1 · LAF 32.1	MONM 41 · LAF 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MONM WWLWL	3-3	50%	2-1	1-2
LAF LWLLW	3-4	43%	1-2	3-2

Venue/role: MONM away, as favorite; LAF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MONM UOUOO	3-3	50%	2-4
LAF OOOUU	5-2	71%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MONMlast 6	2-4 33%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%
LAFlast 7	1-6 14%	3-4 43%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MONM 1–0 LAFMONM leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MONM 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 25, 2023-24	MONM 63 vs LAF 53	LAF +4.5	MONM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Monmouth

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

L W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-350%

U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@LAS	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 13	@HALL	L 58-70	+15.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 18	@SYR	L 73-78	+21.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 23	vsRMU	W 71-70	-2.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsBALL	W 80-73	-2.5	W +4.5	136.5	O 153
Nov 29	vsLEM	L 79-83	-6.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−8.5

HALL

L 58-70

+3.5

SYR

L 73-78

+16.5

RMU

W 71-70

−1.5

BALL

W 80-73

+4.5

LEM

L 79-83

−10.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LAS

L 60-73

−10.5

HALL

L 58-70

−7.5

SYR

L 73-78

+5.5

RMU

W 71-70

−7.5

BALL

W 80-73

+16.5

LEM

L 79-83

+16.5

over 3under 3avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lafayette

7 games played

Straight up

1-6

14% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-2

71% overs · avg −1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-614%

L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-443%

W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-271%

O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsBALL	W 55-37	+1.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 92

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

BALL

W 55-37

+19.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

BALL

W 55-37

−48.5

over 5under 2avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Monmouth Hawks at Lafayette Leopards

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Monmouth

Lafayette

Monmouth

Lafayette